Home


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 161457
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Microwave data earlier today indicated that the center of Polo was to the north of the main convection due to moderate northeasterly shear. Since that time, the thunderstorm activity has increased near the center despite the shear, but the cloud pattern is still somewhat disrupted. Dvorak intensity numbers support an initial intensity of 35 kt. The ocean is plenty warm in that area, and with the shear expected to decrease, the NHC forecast calls for strengthening, making Polo a hurricane in about 48 hours. This is in good agreement with the intensity consensus ICON.

Polo is moving toward the northwest or 310 degrees at about 10 kt. The flow around a mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States and northern Mexico is controlling the track of Polo. This ridge is forecast to persist, keeping Polo on a general northwestward track for the next 3 to 4 days. The ECMWF model forecasts the ridge to weaken faster than the GFS, bringing the center of the storm closer to the coast. At this time, the NHC forecast follows the multi-model consensus TVCN, and the average track between the GFS and the ECMWF, keeping Polo on a track parallel to the southwest coast of Mexico. Polo is expected to turn to the west by the end of the forecast period as a ridge to the north rebuilds.

The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 12.8N 99.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 13.8N 100.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 15.0N 102.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 16.3N 103.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 17.5N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 19.5N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 21.0N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 22.0N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$ Forecaster Avila



Home