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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 241433
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016
900 AM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Frank remains a sheared tropical cyclone with microwave data showing the center of circulation located near the northern edge of a large mass of deep convection. The advisory wind speed is kept at 55 kt, between the Dvorak estimates that range from 50 to 65 kt. The main controlling factor for Frank's intensity is expected to be gradually cooling waters since northeasterly shear is forecast to continue at about the same magnitude for the next few days. Slow weakening is forecast by late Monday and beyond due to the cyclone moving over marginal waters and eventually into a dry and stable air mass. The new forecast is very close to the previous interpolated official prediction, and is a bit lower than the intensity consensus at long range.

Microwave data indicate that Frank has turned to the west- northwest, now moving at 6 kt. A ridge centered over the southwestern United States seems to be building in over northwestern Mexico, causing a mid- to upper-level trough west of the Baja California peninsula to move far enough away from Frank to have less influence. Frank should be steered west-northwestward or westward at a relatively slow forward speed to the south of that ridge for the next several days. Other than some minor speed differences, the guidance continues to be in relatively good agreement, and the latest NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 20.3N 112.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 20.6N 113.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 21.0N 114.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 21.2N 115.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 21.3N 116.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 22.2N 119.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 23.0N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1200Z 23.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$ Forecaster Blake



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