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WTPZ42 KNHC 211438
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

Polo is not in good shape. Strong easterly shear continues to affect the cyclone, keeping the low-level center exposed to the east of the nearest deep convection. The system has been producing somewhat regular bursts of deep convection over the past couple of days, with the latest burst currently on the increase. The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt for this advisory in agreement with the 1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate. With no cessation of the strong shear seen in the short term, further weakening seems likely to occur. However, Polo will be moving over warm enough water to sustain additional bursts of convection, and thermodynamic variables will only gradually become less conducive. The NHC intensity forecast, like the previous one, shows slow weakening but maintains the system as a tropical cyclone longer. The new forecast is just above the latest intensity guidance and shows dissipation in about 3 days in line with global model output.

Polo is moving slowly west-northwestward or 290/06 kt. A continued west-northwestward and then westward track is expected during the next day or so as a result of a westward building mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. Once Polo becomes shallower in nature, a bend of the track toward the southwest and south-southwest is indicated as the cyclone is pushed by a north-northeasterly flow on the eastern side of a low-level ridge. The new track forecast does not depart significantly from the previous one but is shifted slightly to the right in the direction of the well-performing multi-model consensus, TVCE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 21.9N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 22.2N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 22.2N 113.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 21.9N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1200Z 21.4N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1200Z 20.1N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Kimberlain



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