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Tropical Depression Norma Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172017
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Norma continues to produce a small area of deep convection near and to the east of the estimated low-level center. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and a blend of the Dvorak final T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Norma is currently over 26 deg C SSTs, and it will be headed toward even cooler waters during the next couple of days. These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a dry atmosphere should cause Norma to continue weakening, and the depression will likely become a remnant low in about 24 hours or sooner. The global models show the remnant low opening into a trough by 48 hours.

The depression is moving westward at 4 kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion within the low-level flow is expected until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 21.6N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 21.8N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 22.2N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0000Z 22.8N 116.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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