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TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Despite the amount of microwave and ASCAT data available earlier, it was difficult to precisely locate the center of Polo. It appears that the cyclone spent several hours meandering or perhaps reforming within the convection. Currently, the cloud pattern is not very different from 24 hours ago, and both ASCAT data around 1630 UTC and the latest Dvorak estimates support an initial intensity of 60 kt. In terms of the wind field, the same ASCAT data indicate that Polo has a large area of tropical storm force winds in the southeast quadrant, but a much smaller area of 34-kt winds in the northern semicircle.

The combination of strong unfavorable upper-level easterly winds over Polo and cool waters should result in gradual weakening. Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for Polo to become a depression or remnant low in about 3 to 4 days well to west of Baja California. This is consistent with most of the guidance, primarily the intensity consensus ICON and LGEM model.

Polo has resumed its northwest track at about 5 knots. A strong mid-level ridge, which is forecast to amplify to the north of the cyclone, will keep Polo on a general west-northwest to west track for the next 3 to 5 days. NHC forecasts have been very consistent for several cycles in bringing the cyclone well south of the Baja California peninsula, and this is the solution provided by the multi-model consensus TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 19.4N 108.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$ Forecaster Avila

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