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WTPZ41 KNHC 231437
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

The compact hurricane is maintaining its strength this morning. The eye of Karina has become a little more distinct during the past few hours and cloud tops remain quite cold to the south of the center. The initial wind speed is held at 70 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from UW-CIMSS. The hurricane will soon cross the 26 C isotherm, and total precipitable water imagery shows some dry air beginning to wrap around the circulation. These environmental conditions combined with some increase in shear should cause the weakening process to begin later today or tonight. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies fairly close to the intensity model consensus, IVCN.

Karina is moving northeastward at about 6 kt in the broad southwesterly flow to the south of much larger but weaker Tropical Storm Lowell. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected later today and that general motion should continue for the the next couple of days. Beyond that time, however, the models have differing solutions. The previous discussion outlined the varying scenarios of what could drive Karina northward and northwestward as it interacts with what is left of Lowell, and the possibility that Karina stalls or is driven further eastward due to its interaction with Hurricane Marie. The models are trending toward the latter scenario, and the NHC official track forecast shows a slower forward speed at days 3-5 to account for that information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 17.2N 134.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 17.6N 133.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 18.2N 131.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 18.7N 129.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 19.0N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 20.3N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 20.8N 130.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1200Z 21.0N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi



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