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WTPZ41 KNHC 202036
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Fernanda is comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds that is currently devoid of deep convection. The initial intensity is reduced to 50 kt based on various satellite intensity estimates, and it is again possible that this is generous. While the sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should increase, a combination of continued moderate-to-strong shear and entrainment of dry air should keep Fernanda steadily weakening through the forecast period. The cyclone is now forecast to become a depression in about 24 h and a remnant low in about 36 h, and both of these events could occur earlier if convection does not redevelop. The new intensity forecast also now calls for the system to degenerate to a trough after 96 h, in agreement with all of the large-scale models except the GFS.

The initial motion is now 280/11. Fernanda is expected to move west-northwestward to westward through the forecast period as the increasingly weak and shallow vortex is steered by the low-level trade winds. The new forecast track is shifted a little to the south of the previous forecast based on the current motion and the premise that a weaker system will move more westward in the current environment. The new track now lies a little to the south of the model consensus.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Fernanda. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 5 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 18.2N 140.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 18.5N 141.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 19.0N 143.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 19.6N 145.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1800Z 20.2N 147.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1800Z 21.5N 151.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1800Z 22.5N 156.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Beven

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