Home


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 212037
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

Karina has a fairly well-organized appearance on visible satellite imagery, and microwave images show that a partial eyewall structure is being maintained. Based on these factors, the initial intensity is maintained at 50 kt for this advisory. This is somewhat above the most recent Dvorak estimates. The storm should more or less maintain its intensity for the next 24 hours or so. Dry mid-level air near the cyclone is expected to cause a weakening trend to begin tomorrow and, later in the forecast period, cooler waters should also result in weakening. Karina is expected to degenerate into a remnant low after 72 hours. The official wind speed forecast is in reasonable agreement with the intensity model consensus.

The center is easy to track in visible imagery and the motion estimate is 160/3. The steering of Karina is likely to be dominated by the larger circulation of Hurricane Lowell, which should be passing to the northeast of Karina in a few days. The flow over the southern and southeastern portions of Lowell's circulation should draw Karina northeastward and, eventually, northward during the forecast period. The official track forecast is similar to the latest Florida State University Superensemble prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 14.7N 136.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 14.7N 136.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 15.3N 135.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 15.9N 134.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 16.7N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 18.5N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 22.0N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1800Z 26.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$ Forecaster Pasch



Home