000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170233
TCDEP1
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2016
Deep organized convection has been absent in Orlene for over 18
hours at this point. Given the expectation of continued hostile
conditions - cool SSTs and a stable, dry atmosphere - convection is
unlikely to resume and Orlene is now considered a post-tropical
remnant low. Peak winds are estimated to be about 30 kt, assuming
a continued spin down of the circulation. The system should
gradually weaken and open up into a trough in about three days.
Orlene is moving toward the west at about 8 kt. The remnant low
should advect along in the low-level trade wind flow at a somewhat
faster forward speed until dissipation.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0300Z 20.1N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 17/1200Z 20.1N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/0000Z 20.0N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1200Z 19.9N 134.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z 19.9N 136.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Landsea