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WTPZ41 KNHC 221450
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Estelle has been lacking any deep convection for about 15 hours, and is now designated a post-tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and the latest Dvorak CI estimate from TAFB based on weakening rules. The cyclone should gradually spin down over the next couple of days as it moves over cool waters and dissipate in 48 to 72 hours.

Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest at 14 kt, and this motion should continue until dissipation as the cyclone is steered by the subtropical ridge centered well to its northeast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 21.8N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 23/0000Z 22.6N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1200Z 23.7N 137.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z 24.7N 140.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 25.8N 142.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Brennan



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