Home


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 222028
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015
100 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2015

Rick has become a swirl of low clouds that has been devoid of organized deep convection for more than 12 hours. As a result, Rick is now a post-tropical remnant low, and this will be the last NHC advisory on this system. The initial intensity remains 30 kt, which is in agreement with the latest Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB. Dry air, strong southwesterly shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures along the forecast track of the low should cause weakening during the next couple of days, and dissipation is expected within 72 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 310/7 kt. The low should turn northward during the next day or so, then become nearly stationary as the low-level steering flow weakens. After that time, the remnant low is forecast to turn eastward or southeastward before dissipation occurs. The new NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the latest global model guidance and is similar to the previous NHC advisory.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 18.1N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 23/0600Z 18.9N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1800Z 19.8N 120.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0600Z 20.5N 120.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 21.0N 120.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Brown

Home