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WTPZ41 KNHC 092031
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016
300 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016

Satellite images show that the system lacks sufficient organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Therefore the cyclone is now being designated as a post-tropical remnant low, and this will be the last advisory on Javier. Surface observations and ASCAT scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds are near 25 kt. The low should continue to gradually spin down, and it is likely to dissipate by Thursday.

The center has become less well defined, but the best estimate of initial motion is around 310/9 kt. The low is likely to continue moving around the western periphery of a subtropical high pressure system until dissipation. The official track forecast is close to the model consensus.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 24.6N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 10/0600Z 25.3N 112.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/1800Z 26.2N 113.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0600Z 27.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Pasch



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