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000
WTNT45 KNHC 161454
TCDAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016

Ian has transitioned into an extratropical low this morning. Any of the remaining weak-to-moderate convection is the northern side of the circulation, with cold air wrapping into the center of the cyclone as it is overtaken by a cold front. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based on ASCAT data. Ian should move quickly northeastward and gradually weaken before a larger extratropical low absorbs it in about 2 days. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts are based largely on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 48.8N 36.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 17/0000Z 54.0N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/1200Z 59.5N 22.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 18/0000Z 64.5N 14.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Blake



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