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000
WTNT44 KNHC 220301
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Satellite and radar data from Mexico indicate that deep convection associated with the small well-defined low pressure area over the Bay of Campeche has become organized in bands over the eastern and northern portions of the circulation during the past few hours. Thus the low is being designated as a tropical depression. Earlier aircraft data supported winds around 30 kt. The depression is over warm water and moderate southwesterly shear that has been over the system is forecast to decrease during the next 24 hours. This should allow for some strengthening and the depression is expected to to become a overnight or early Wednesday. The cyclone should weaken after it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday night. If the small cyclone survives the passage across the Yucatan Peninsula, drier air and interaction with a frontal system is likely to prevent strengthening. The NHC forecasts calls for degeneration to a remnant low in 4 or 5 days, but this could occur much sooner.

The depression is moving eastward at about 5 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours and the cyclone is forecast to reach the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late tomorrow or tomorrow night. After that time, the track forecast becomes much more uncertain since the small system is likely to interact with a developing non-tropical low pressure over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF shows the tropical cyclone merging with the frontal system, while the GFS keeps the depression a separate system. For now, the NHC forecast shows a weak low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in 4 to 5 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 19.4N 92.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 19.4N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 19.4N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 19.4N 90.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 19.4N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 19.0N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 18.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0000Z 18.5N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$ Forecaster Brown



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