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000
WTNT44 KNHC 222031
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
400 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

The depression still has a well defined circulation, but the associated convection has been gradually decreasing during the day. Based on earlier reconnaissance data, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt. Given the deterioration of the cloud pattern and the shear over the cyclone, it is less likely that the depression will attain tropical storm status before it moves inland over the Yucatan peninsula in about 12 hours or less. The NHC forecast keeps the cyclone as a tropical depression through 5 days as it crosses Yucatan and moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. There is also a chance that the system dissipates over land in about 24 hours or so. The GFS changed its tune significantly between the 06z and the 12z runs. It developed a strong tropical storm in the Caribbean in the earlier run, and only a weak trough in the 12z one. On the other hand, both the ECMWF and the HWRF maintain a cyclone for the next few days. This makes the intensity forecast highly uncertain, primarily since the GFS model could redevelop a cyclone in the next run.

The depression has been moving slowly toward the east-southeast or 115 degrees at 4 knots. The cyclone is located at the base of a mid-level trough, embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. This pattern will steer the depression on a general eastward track over Yucatan, and as the trough lifts out the depression could meander in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not directly related to the tropical depression.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 19.2N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 19.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1800Z 18.6N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0600Z 18.0N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1800Z 18.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1800Z 18.0N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 18.0N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 18.0N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$ Forecaster Avila



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