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000
WTNT44 KNHC 291450
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

Cristobal has completed its transformation into an extratropical cyclone with all of the cold cloud tops located well north and northwest of the exposed center. A frontal boundary has also wrapped around the southern portion of the circulation. A recent ASCAT pass revealed a large area of 50-60 kt winds to the southeast of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 65 kt. Although some gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so, the low is expected to remain a large and powerful cyclone over the north Atlantic until it merges with another large low near Iceland in 36 to 48 hours.

The cyclone has been moving northeast at more than 40 kt during the past 6 to 12 hours. However, the low is expected to slow down some while it continues on a northeastward heading in deep layer southwesterly flow during the next day or so. The official track forecast lies between the ECMWF and GFS solution and has been coordinated with guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 45.5N 47.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 30/0000Z 48.2N 41.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/1200Z 51.5N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 31/0000Z 55.0N 27.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

$$ Forecaster Brown



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