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000
WTNT42 KNHC 280836
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

The depression has not become any better organized since yesterday. The convection is located to the northwest of the low-level center due to southeasterly shear, and it is also limited due to the fact that the cyclone has been moving over cooler waters. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed, and the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt based on continuity. The depression has a small opportunity to strengthen a little during the next 24 hours while it moves over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, although the shear is not favorable for intensification. This is consistent with most of the intensity guidance, which do not show any notable increase of the winds. In between 24 and 36 hours, the circulation will be interacting with land, and weakening should begin. By 72 hours or sooner, the depression is forecast to become a remnant low.

Although the low-level center is difficult to locate on satellite imagery, the best estimate of the initial motion is 310 degrees at 12 kt. The depression is currently located on the southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge, and this pattern will continue to steer the cyclone on the same track for the next 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter, a short wave trough is forecast to approach from the west and force the cyclone to turn to the east-northeast at a very slow pace. The NHC forecast is an extrapolation of the previous one, and it follows the trend of the GFS and the ECMWF models very closely. The NHC forecast brings the center of the cyclone near the South Carolina coast between 24 and 36 hours.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 29.9N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 31.0N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 32.4N 79.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 32.8N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/0600Z 33.0N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/0600Z 33.5N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 34.5N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z 35.0N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$ Forecaster Avila

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