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WTNT41 KNHC 051500
TCDAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

Surface, satellite, and earlier NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that Arthur became an extratropical cyclone by 1200 UTC this morning. The earlier aircraft reports and recent wind observations show that the cyclone continues to weaken, and the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt. The post-tropical cyclone should continue to weaken during the next day or so and winds are expected to be below gale force in 48 to 72 hours. The cyclone is now forecast to dissipate by the end of the forecast period.

The cyclone is moving north-northeastward at about 21 kt. A north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or so. A turn toward the north and a further reduction in forward speed is forecast in a few days. The lastest track forecast is similar to the previous forecast through 48 hours, but has been adjusted westward thereafter to be in better agreement with the latest track guidance.

This will be the last NHC advisory on Arthur. For additional information, including warnings, consult products issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre at: weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

Statements on the post-tropical cyclone are also being issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre under WMO header WOCN31 CWHX and in French at WOCN41 CWHX. For marine interests, additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 45.0N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 47.0N 63.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 06/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/0000Z 52.0N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/1200Z 56.0N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/1200Z 60.5N 54.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1200Z 60.5N 52.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Brown/Pasch



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