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000
WTNT41 KNHC 042033
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
500 PM AST FRI SEP 04 2015

The depression consists of a very tight circulation largely devoid of deep convection. Recently a convective band is forming east of the center, but it appears that each new burst of convection is weaker than the previous one. It is estimated that the winds are still 30 kt, and given the strong shear the NHC forecast calls for Fred to become a remnant low in 24 hours or so. The GFS and UK global models, as well as the SHIPS/GFS and SHIPS/ECMWF intensity guidance, regenerate Fred by the end of the forecast period, and so does the official forecast.

The steering pattern has not changed yet, and the depression is still moving on a general west to west-northwest track at 8 kt. In about 48 hours, a strong mid-latitude trough is forecast by the global models to deepen in the central Atlantic. This pattern should force the depression or its remnants to recurve and become embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC forecast is within the guidance envelope during the next 2 to 3 days and then lies between the GFS and the multi-model consensus. The GFS insists on keeping Fred meandering across the North Atlantic for more than a week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 22.6N 39.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 22.8N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 23.3N 41.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z 24.0N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 25.5N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z 28.5N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96H 08/1800Z 31.5N 35.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 120H 09/1800Z 33.5N 31.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$ Forecaster Avila

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