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000
WTNT41 KNHC 190240
TCDAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016

Strong shear and dry mid-level air have continued to take a toll on Julia today. The cyclone has become an exposed swirl of low clouds devoid of significant deep convection for more than 12 hours. Based on this, Julia is being designated a post-tropical remnant low, and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. The initial wind speed is set to 25 kt, which is based on the earlier ASCAT data, but this could be generous. The cyclone may produce some disorganized thunderstorms during the overnight convective maximum period, but increasing southwesterly shear on Monday should limit any organization or persistence of the activity. The low should gradually spin down and dissipate in a couple of days.

Julia is moving northwestward at about 6 kt. A turn toward the north is expected overnight ahead of a shortwave trough moving into the southeastern United States. After that time, the remnant low is forecast to meander over eastern North Carolina until dissipation occurs.

Moisture from the remnants of Julia are expected to interact with a frontal boundary moving into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States. This is likely to produce local heavy rainfall from eastern North Carolina northward to the northeastern U.S. during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 32.2N 78.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 19/1200Z 33.2N 78.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/0000Z 34.4N 77.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/1200Z 34.9N 77.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0000Z 35.1N 77.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Brown

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