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000
FOPZ15 KNHC 241458
PWSEP5

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017
1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2017

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

10N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)

15N 120W 34 X 14(14) 61(75) 16(91) 2(93) 1(94) X(94)
15N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 31(32) 22(54) 4(58) 1(59) 1(60)
15N 120W 64 X X( X) 14(14) 14(28) 3(31) X(31) 1(32)

20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) 3(11)

10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)

15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 18(35) 6(41)
15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13)
15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15)
20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BERG

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