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FOPZ14 KNHC 022046
PWSEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)

CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 13(23) 8(31) 1(32) X(32)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 11(19) 6(25) 1(26) 1(27)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 9(18) 2(20) X(20)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9)

HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)

MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

MANZANILLO 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 6(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12)

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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