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FOPZ14 KNHC 101434
PWSEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
1500 UTC THU OCT 10 2013

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 14 25 NA NA NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 79 56 NA NA NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 7 19 NA NA NA NA NA
HURRICANE X X NA NA NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X X NA NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X NA NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X NA NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X NA NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X NA NA NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 20KT 20KT NA NA NA NA NA


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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