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FOPZ14 KNHC 272032
PWSEP4

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016
2100 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

15N 140W 34 11 3(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)

20N 140W 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)

15N 145W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

20N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 46(61) 19(80) 1(81) X(81)
20N 145W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 20(42) X(42) X(42)
20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) X(18) X(18)

25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 24(51) 2(53)
20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 1(18)
20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)

25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)

20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 31(45) 3(48)
20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15)
20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16)
BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 10(31)
20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 13(25)
HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23)
BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13)
18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17)
SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23)
21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20)
KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20)
KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13)

BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23)
HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)

LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17)
LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17)
KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)

HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13)

JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13)

LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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