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FOPZ13 KNHC 292032
PWSEP3

HURRICANE LESTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016
2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

15N 135W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)

20N 135W 34 1 32(33) 8(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
20N 135W 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

15N 140W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16)

20N 140W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 33(39) 14(53) X(53) X(53)
20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15)
20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) 1(16)

20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 19(59) 1(60)
20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) X(25)
20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10)

25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9)

20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 18(53)
20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18)
20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)

25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)

20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 22(46)
20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16)
20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19)
BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24)
20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17)
HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15)
BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)

SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)

KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)

21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)

BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)

KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)

BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)

JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)

LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

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