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000
FOPZ12 KNHC 170234
PWSEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
0300 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 14(26) 3(29)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 13(24) 2(26)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)

HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)

CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9)

MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) X(12)

SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 8(17) 2(19) 1(20)

P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 12(20) 8(28) 1(29) 1(30)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 4( 5) 22(27) 14(41) 4(45) X(45) X(45)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

MANZANILLO 34 1 5( 6) 20(26) 9(35) 4(39) X(39) 1(40)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

L CARDENAS 34 2 17(19) 6(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)

ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 9(11) 4(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17)

ACAPULCO 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

P MALDONADO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 23(28) 11(39) 1(40)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)

ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10)

ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 16(28) 3(31) X(31)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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