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000
FOPZ11 KNHC 310836
PWSEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
0900 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)

SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)

LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)

LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)

MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)

SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)

P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12)

BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10)

MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)

ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 4(30)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)

ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 20(31) 1(32) X(32)
CLIPPERTON IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
CLIPPERTON IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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