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HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
1500 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)

BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)

ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)

WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11)

OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14)

PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10)

WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16)
WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10)

DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)

NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 6(21)
NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 6(22)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 6(24)
OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 6(28)
ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)

RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11)

ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 4(17)

CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 20(41) 8(49)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)

FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14)

CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 13(29) 6(35)
CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 16(37) 6(43)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12)
NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 14(33) 6(39)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 11(25) 5(30)
SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 10(22) 5(27)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 8(22) 5(27)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9)

COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 4(20)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 4(18)

GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14)

CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9)

BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)

SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

GREAT EXUMA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

SAN SALVADOR 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

MAYAGUANA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BERG

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