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000
AGXX40 KNHC 260732
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
232 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A cold front extends from north Florida to the central Gulf near
25N90W where it begins to dissipate. Scatterometer and surface
data show moderate to fresh N-NE winds in the wake of the front.
Buoys observations indicate seas of 4-5 ft behind the front.
Winds are already veering to the SE across the NW Gulf. The
front will lift north as a warm front through Monday ahead of a
low pressure system tracking across Texas and Louisiana Tuesday
and Wednesday. High pressure over the interior central U.S. will
shift eastward across the southeast U.S. today, and off the
eastern U.S. coast late tonight. As a result, moderate to fresh
southerly return flow will dominate the western Gulf today,
spreading eastward across the remainder of the Gulf on Monday and
persisting across most of the area through Wednesday. Seas will
remain generally below 6 ft. Diurnally driven NE-E winds of 20 kt
will occur near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula during
the evening hours, spreading westward across the SW Gulf during
the overninght and morning hours. These winds will be associated
with a thermal trough. Little change in this weather pattern and
associated features is expected through Wednesday evening. The
next cold front will enter the Gulf region late Wednesday,
reaching from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Thursday.
Strong northerly winds will follow this front, with the potential
for a Gale to develop over the southwest Gulf on Thursday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

The most recent scatterometer pass provided observations of
fresh to locally strong winds near the coast of Colombia with
moderate to fresh winds across the remainder of the south-central
Caribbean. Winds are forecast to increase across the area tonight
into Monday as high pressure builds over the SW N Atlantic. By
Monday morning, fresh to locally strong trades will cover the
south-central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere,
including the tropical Atlantic waters, and the Windward Passage.
Strong nocturnal flow is then expected along the NW coast of
Colombia, with gale conditions possible during the overnight and
early morning hours Monday through Thursday. Seas are forecast to
build to 13-14 ft near the coast of Colombia with the gale force
winds. A gale warning has been issued with the 0600 UTC forecast
package. Expect also increasing winds across the Atlantic passages
by Monday night. These conditions will persist through Wednesday
night.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A cold front has entered the NW waters and extends from 31N79W
to near Daytona Beach Florida. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds
are noted ahead of the front while fresh to locally strong winds
are blowing behind the front, forecast to reach a position from
31N72W to south Florida this afternoon, and from near Bermuda to
south Florida this evening. The front will begin to weaken across
the forecast area tonight. High pressure in the wake of the
front will support moderate to fresh NE-E winds across much of
the area on Monday. Then, the high will shift eastward extending
a ridge across the forecast waters through Wednesday. Under the
influence of the ridge, expect fresh easterly winds across the
waters south of 22N Monday through Wednesday, with seas building
to 7-8 ft east of the Bahamas mainly Monday night through
Thursday. By Thursday, expect increasing winds across the NW
waters ahead of the next cold front forecast to move into the
area by early Thursday afternoon. The front will reach from near
Bermuda to central Florida on Thursday night. Mainly fresh
northerly winds are expected behind the front with seas of 6-7
ft.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
Gale Warning Mon night.
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue night.
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed night.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

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