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000
AGXX40 KNHC 081924
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
224 PM EST THU DEC 8 2016

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence then
medium confidence next week.

Strong winds over the northwest Gulf follow a cold front reaching
from central Florida to 26N94W to near Tampico Mexico. A
dissipating stationary front is farther south, reaching from the
Straits of Florida to the southwest Gulf. Frequent gusts to gale
force are noted over much of the far northwest Gulf as well.
Convergent surface winds and moist overrunning southerly flow
aloft across this southern boundary is supporting scattered
showers and thunderstorms over much of the central and west
central Gulf. Reinforcing cold air moving southward into coastal
Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley will allowing winds to
reach sustained gale force behind the front over the west central
and southwest portions of the Gulf near the coast of Mexico from
Tampico to Veracruz over the next couple of days. Winds and seas
will diminish very slowly Saturday and Saturday night across the
SW Gulf as the cold front sinks into the northwest Caribbean.
Looking ahead, there is some uncertainty among global models regarding
another possible front after mid week. Official forecast remains
conservative, indicating a weak front entering the northern waters
by early Thursday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A 1427 UTC scatterometer pass indicated 20 to 25 kt winds off the
coast of Colombia. Seas are likely 8 to 10 ft over the south
central Caribbean as a result. Farther east, a well defined
surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Caribbean along
roughly 63W/64W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt, and supporting
clusters of showers and thunderstorms. Regional observations and
the scatterometer pass indicate fresh to strong northeast winds
from the Leeward Islands to the central coast of Venezuela. Seas
are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh trades with sea
to 8 ft persist over the tropical north Atlantic, mixed with
northerly swell.

A cold front will stall across the Yucatan Channel and far
northwest portions of the Caribbean by early Sunday. Building
high pressure behind the front north of the area will support an
expanded area of strong trades over the most of the eastern and
central Caribbean, with near gale force winds during overnight
hours off Colombia starting late Saturday as the surface trough
shifts west of the area. Winds through the Windward Passage and
in the lee of Cuba will increase briefly late Saturday as well.
The high pressure will slide east and reach from the central
Atlantic through the Gulf of Mexico, supporting moderate to fresh
trades across the tropical north Atlantic through the central
Caribbean early next week, with strong trades east of the Leeward
Islands by Tuesday.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

Strong high pressure will build eastward from the Carolinas into
the western Atlantic through Saturday behind a cold front
currently extending from 31N75W to central Florida. The front will
move eastward but eventually will become oriented along 25N by
Sunday, before stalling across roughly 22N by early next week and
dissipating. Strong northeast winds south of the ridge and to the
north of the front will encompass the area from 24N to 28N through
the northern Bahamas by late Saturday, expanding to much of the
area south of 27N through Saturday with seas to 8 ft persisting
through Tuesday.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK...
Gale Warning today and tonight.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
Gale Warning today into Fri.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
Gale Warning tonight into Fri night.
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night into Sat.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.

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