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AGXX40 KNHC 251959
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
259 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL BUT NW PORTIONS OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH HAS SHIFTED INTO THE FAR W GULF WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGING EXTENDING E-NE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO SW N ATLC. MODERATE NLY FLOW IS STILL PREVAILING ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WITH RESIDUAL NW SWELL THERE MAINTAINING SEAS 6-7 FT AND POSSIBLY STILL TO 8 FT. N OF THE HIGH...OBS AND RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOW WSW FLOW 15-20 KT ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS AND OFFSHORE SW LA COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE BUILDING 4-5 FT ATTM. WW3 A BIT SLOW IN CAPTURING THIS WAVE GROWTH AND AM TRENDING TOWARD HI RES ECWAVE THERE.

THE HIGH CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER AROUND THE FAR W GULF AND ACROSS E COASTAL MEXICO NEXT 72 HRS AS BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROFFING ACROSS E HALF OF N AMERICA REORGANIZED ALONG E SEABOARD AND THEN SHIFTS EWD TO ALONG 70W THROUGH MID WEEK. ASSOCIATED S/W WILL SWEEP ACROSS LLVL RIDGE AND DROP FRONTS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND E GULF WITH SFC HIGH OSCILLATING AROUND W PORTIONS OF GULF. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF TONIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG SW-W WINDS PRECEDING THE FRONT AND STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE W-NW WINDS N OF FRONT IN THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF. MODELS SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS IN PBL BUT NOT MIXING TO THE SFC...BUT LLVLS VERY UNSTABLE...AND IS POSSIBLE TO SEE BRIEF 6 HR OR LESS PERIOD OF GALES IN OFFSHORE WATERS ACROSS NE PORTIONS TONIGHT. ATTM WE REMAIN RELUCTANT TO GO WITH GALE WARNING HERE...ALTHOUGH GUST CLAUSE MAY VERIFY. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 06Z TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY SHIFT SE OF THE BASIN BY MON AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT E OF 90W LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON...WHILE LATEST NWPS PEAKING AT 13 FT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE GULF E OF 90W MON NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WESTERN GULF. ANOTHER FRONT OR REINFORCING TROUGH WILL CLIP THE NE GULF WATERS TUE NIGHT WITH BRIEF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND IT. THAT FEATURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT BY WED MORNING. HIGH PRES OVER SE GEORGIA WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN BY WED NIGHT ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT ALONG WITH MAINLY 1-3 FT SEAS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS

LATE MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PERSISTING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 13.5N WHERE SEAS WERE LIKELY 8-10 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LATEST GFS HINTING AND PEAK NOCTURNAL WIND OF 30 KT THERE...THEN WILL DIMINISH TO FRESH WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT THROUGH WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. PRES GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT NW AND CENTRAL PORTIONS AS RIDGE BUILDS N OF THE REGION BEHIND SWEEPING FRONT...AND INCREASES PEAK NOCTURNAL WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 11-12 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS....WITH NLY FLOW STREAMING SWD W OF BOUNDARY. PARTIAL LATE MORNING ASCAT PASS INDICATE FRESH N TO N-NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND NNW ACROSS INTERIOR GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS LIKELY AROUND 7 FT ACROSS EXPOSED PORTIONS OF THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ILL DEFINED OVERNIGHT BUT THEN REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN MON EVENING...AND ALTHOUGH FAIRLY DRY...WILL REINFORCE A NEW BOUNDARY FARTHER SE BY WED AS STRONG HIGH BUILDS N OF THE AREA TUE-WED. GFS SHOWS THIS NEW BOUNDARY FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NRN COSTA RICA BY WED AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG NLY WINDS PUSHING BOUNDARY S TO THIS POSITION TUE THROUGH WED. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT THERE BY WED NIGHT. THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT WILL THEN SLACKED THU AS STRONG HIGH TO THE N SHIFT E INTO ATLC AND WINDS ACROSS BASIN VEER NE TO E.

OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SEAS OF 4-7 FT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE E ACROSS N PORTIONS...NOW EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO 25N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21.5N78W. GALE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF FRONT HAVE LIFTED N AND OUT OF AREA THIS MORNING. N PORTION OF FRONT TO CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING...WHILE FRONT W OF 70W WILL REMAIN STATIONARY NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO DRIFT SE AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO GULF OF MEXICO. WW3 DID NOT MATCH UP WELL THIS MORNING WITH WAVE FIELD BEHIND FRONT...AND SEEMED TOO FAR E AND NE WITH HIGH SEAS...AND NOT CAPTURING WLY SWELL LINGERING W OF 70W...WHERE UKMET AND ECWAVE MODELS VERIFIED BETTER. HAVE BLENDED IN GOOD PORTION OF HI RES ECWAVE ACROSS ATLC FOR THIS PKG.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE NW PORTION TONIGHT WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS AHEAD OF IT JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N76W TO 28N77W TO 26N80W MON AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT BY THEN. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N67W TO 28N68W TO 20N74W BY LATE MON NIGHT. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL COVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 22N AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 15-20 FT ALONG 31N BY EARLY TUE MORNING. ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT OR TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION BY TUE EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.

THESE ACTIVE CONDITIONS FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SE U.S. THE LULL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SE TO NEAR 28N70W BY FRI MORNING AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW PORTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING MON.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING MON. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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