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AGXX40 KNHC 281801
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
201 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front along the Gulf coast will dissipate through tonight. Scattered showers and few thunderstorms are active along the frontal boundary and far northwest Gulf. Ridging extends from the western Atlantic into the east central Gulf then onward to the northwest Gulf. Seas are minimal, around 1 to 3 ft over the eastern Gulf among gentle breezes, but range from 2 to 4 ft over the western Gulf where moderate southeast winds are observed.

A frontal system moving into the Great Plains will combine with high pressure moving to the eastern seaboard to produce moderate to fresh return flow across most of the basin tonight and then gradually strengthen to fresh to locally strong Thu night into Fri as the frontal system moves SE into the TX Panhandle. Seas to increase to 4-6 ft during this time, with Yucatan diurnal thermal trough yielding strong winds across N and NW peninsula waters, with potential to increase seas briefly to 7 ft. Somewhat similar conditions to continue into the weekend as a weak high settles into the far NE Gulf and the frontal boundary retreats northwest into the Central Plains.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh trade winds over the eastern Caribbean off Nicaragua and Honduras following the passage of a tropical wave moving into Central America and the Gulf of Honduras. This is indicative of the pattern across the basin into next week where passing tropical waves modulate moderate to fresh trade winds, becoming occasionally strong off northeast Colombia, the Gulf of Honduras, and in a small area south of Hispaniola mainly at night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be associated with the tropical waves, as is the case currently with a tropical wave moving through the Lesser Antilles. Hazy conditions are likely ongoing over portions of the eastern and central Caribbean outside of showers and thunderstorms, although there are no regional observations reporting any restriction to visibility. Seas will remain 4 to 6 ft overall, except over portions of the south central Caribbean where pulses of fresh to strong trades will cover the largest expanse. Seas over the tropical north Atlantic west of 55W are 6 to 8 ft with a component of northeast swell, but this is expected to decay to 5 to 7 ft later today.


..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Atlc ridge extends from 1032 mb high near 40N34W to just E of the NW Bahamas will drift eastward ahead of a weak slow moving cold front off northeast Florida. Scattered showers are likely ongoing north of 28N ahead of the front. The front will stall later today, then lift north and dissipate through tonight and early Thu, allowing the ridge to build westward again. This pattern will support light to gentle southeast breezes north of 25N, moderate breezes between 22N and 25N, and moderate to fresh easterly breezes south of 22N, becoming strong off the north coast of Hispaniola during the late evenings. Seas will remain 3 to 5 ft over open waters north of 22N, and 4 to 6 ft south of 22N.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.

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