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AGXX40 KNHC 061851
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
151 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

MODERATE N-NE FLOW WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH 2-4 FT SEAS REPORTED N OF 26N AND 4-7 FT SEAS S OF 26N IN NORTHERLY SWELL. A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE MOVED OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW PORTION WITH FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E-SE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXITING BY EARLY SUN MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE TO 26N94W BY LATE SUN NIGHT...THEN WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY MON MORNING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. THE NEXT FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER BY MON EVENING... PUSHING S-SE OF THE BASIN TUE MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW OF FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL IMPACT THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF MON EVENING THROUGH TUE MORNING...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE A GALE WARNING BECOMES NECESSARY. CURRENT SREF 34 KT PROBABILITIES ARE 10-15 PERCENT WHILE GEFS 34 KT PROBABILITIES ARE 0-10 PERCENT. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY TUE EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM W TO E THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF WED AFTERNOON...EXITING THE BASIN EARLY THU. FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW BRIEFLY FOLLOWS THIS THIRD FRONT...MAINLY IN THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF ZONE. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGH PRES SETS UP OVER THE CAROLINAS USHERING IN MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW BASIN-WIDE BY THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAD STALLED FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS RETROGRADED SLIGHTLY BACK NW LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AND NOW REACHES FROM N CENTRAL CUBA TO JUST SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WEAK LOW PRES IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THIS FRONT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHICH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW-N FLOW ON THE BACK/NW SIDE OF THE FRONT AND LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT OFFSHORE OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND IN THE SE CARIBBEAN WHERE FRESH TO STRONG FLOW PREVAILS DUE TO LOCALLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENTS. THE FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TONIGHT...REACHING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA SUN NIGHT...THEN STALLING FROM HAITI TO NE COSTA RICA BY MON MORNING WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT THROUGH MID WEEK. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW BOTH FRONTS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA TUE THROUGH WED. WINDS WILL ALSO PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA BY MID WEEK. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS W OF 70W BY THU INTO THU NIGHT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND BUILDING HIGH PRES BOTH NW-N OF THE AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS...AND ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... WITH POSSIBLE GALES ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

AN OLD COLD FRONT HAS NOW STALLED FROM JUST SE OF BERMUDA THROUGH 26N70W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. ASSOCIATED WINDS NEAR THIS FRONT ARE MODERATE TO FRESH...HOWEVER LINGERING MIXED NE AND NW SWELL OF 8-11 FT CAN BE FOUND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL TROUGH IS TO THE E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH FRESH TO STRONG N-NE FLOW NOTED W OF THE TROUGH. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE TO NE W-NW THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM JUST N OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE BASIN IN ITS WAKE AS IT LIFTS OUT TO THE N-NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARD WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS 10-M WINDS 50-55 KT N OF 29N/30N IN ZONES AMZ113-115...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF INDICATES 45-50 KT WINDS RIGHT ALONG 31N. A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THESE TWO ZONES SUN NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AROUND 06 UTC MON. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SURROUND AND COVER THE WATERS N OF 27N...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BRIEFLY EXTEND INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF AMZ117/THE BAHAMAS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THERE YET TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR THAT ZONE. VERY LARGE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW... BUILDING TO UP TO 30 FT ALONG 31N SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THE FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW... EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SUN EVENING... THEN FROM 31N64W TO THE NE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MON MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST...WITH GALE FORCE SW WINDS POSSIBLE IN AMZ111 JUST TO THE E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA BY MON EVENING SPREADING EASTWARD TO 65W AND LINGERING THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH LARGE SEAS YET AGAIN ANTICIPATED...BUILDING TO UP TO 21-23 FT ALONG 31N BY TUE EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG W-NW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH THU...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM W TO E INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRES SETS UP OVER THE CAROLINAS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING SUN. STORM WARNING SUN NIGHT. GALE WARNING MON. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... STORM WARNING SUN NIGHT. GALE WARNING MON. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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