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AGXX40 KNHC 311902
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
302 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEWLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS NEAR 24.7N 88.0W 1000 MB AT 1800 UTC AUG 31 MOVING N AT 2 KT. STRONG CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING NEAR THE CENTER AND IN BANDING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH UP TO 200 NM AS FAR AS JUST NW OF WESTERN CUBA AND JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING IN THE DEEP CONVECTION HAVE DROPPED AS LOW AS -86 DEGREES CELSIUS. RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF ON THE PERIPHERY OF HERMINE. SEAS ARE RANGING BETWEEN 6 AND 9 FT IN THESE AREAS...WITH 10 FT BEING REPORTED AT BUOY 42003...WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 NM NE OF THE CENTER. 1508Z SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF GALES EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM E AND S OF THE CENTER. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS HERMINE IS ELONGATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS PERSIST ACROSS THE NW GULF AS WELL DUE TO CONVERGENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS. GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE SW GULF WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAILING. HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA AND REACH THE COAST THU NIGHT OR EARLY ON FRI. HERMINE WILL CROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION BY FRI NIGHT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER T.S. HERMINE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGING IS PROVIDING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN SUPPORT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WEST OF 75W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC, ALLOWING TRADE-WIND FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WERE NOTED BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND HAITI IN A 1330 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS. A WEAK TROUGH FROM 16N52W TO 25N52W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE IT PASSES NEAR AND N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THU. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRI...THEN FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL WAVE SUN. THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MAY USHER IN INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTH WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS W OF 75W ON THE SE SIDE OF SURFACE TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM T.S. HERMINE IN THE S CENTRAL GULF. T.S. HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AND MOVE TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA...ALLOWING THESE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE FURTHER STARTING THU NIGHT N OF THE BAHAMAS AND TO THE E OF NE FLORIDA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FT IN THE WATERS N OF 29N W OF 75W THROUGH EARLY SAT AS HERMINE MOVES NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE...BRINGING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO ZONE AMZ111 OFF NE FLORIDA FRI MORNING IN THE PROCESS. ELSEWHERE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO A POSITION BETWEEN 24N TO 26N, BRINGING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WITH IT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT S OF 22N BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN S OF THE REGION.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO THU NIGHT.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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