Home


000
AGXX40 KNHC 231840
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
240 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle near 30N86W to the bay of campeche near 20N95W to the vicinity of tampico Mexico near 23N98W. The forecast still retains a developing gale along the SW Gulf coast for the waters near Veracruz Mexico. Latest forecast issuance trends the current event downward in agreement with model guidance in keeping a minimal gale in the forecast from 18Z to 00Z this evening. A repeat performance is anticipated for tomorrow evening, as a reinforcing shot of cold air will increase the pressure gradient over the Gulf and aid in the mix down of momentum from aloft. The secondary surge of cold air will bring 20 to 25 kt winds to almost all of the Gulf from Tuesday evening until around midday on Wed. The front will move from the gulf into the NW Caribbean by dawn on Wed. Winds and seas in the basin will subside Wed night and Thu as high pres builds over the northern Gulf.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

A tropical wave is located to the east of the Windward islands along 55W/56W. The wave is being sheared and weakened by a strong mid to upper-level trough which extends south into the NE Caribbean along 65W. Upper-level divergence associated with the rough is causing deep convection to flare within 180 nm east and within 360 nm west of the wave axis. Fresh to locally strong trade winds to the east of the wave axis are expected to maintain an area of 8 ft seas east of the Windwards generally between 09N and 14N between 45W and 55W through Friday. The tropical wave is expected to continue weakening and survive at lower latitudes as it progresses westward.

Broad low pressure over the SW Caribbean near the eastward extension of the monsoon trough from the eastern Pacific is combining with a western Atlantic Ocean ridge to generate a large area of fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft in almost all of the central Caribbean. The winds and seas will diminish by Tue afternoon as a cold front heading SE from the United States weakens the ridge. The front will enter the NW Caribbean on Wed morning, then stall on Thursday. Funneling of winds between the front and the Yucatan will generate an area of strong winds and seas to 8 ft or above Wed morning through Thursday morning. Models are trending upward with winds and seas in this area so this area so there is a potential for a minimal gale over the far western Caribbean during this time frame. Prevailing winds over the Caribbean Sea are expected to remain light to moderate on Thu and Fri, with a weak ridge remaining in place to the north. Low pressure is expected to develop within a surface trough over the western Caribbean Sea by Friday.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

High pres centered over the W Atlc near 43N61W will maintain fresh to locally strong E to SE winds, especially S of 22N today. A cold front will move SE from the Carolinas and Florida Tuesday morning. Strong S winds and seas building to 8 ft can be expected just N of the discussion area, or N of 31N W of 75W around dawn. The front may be accompanied by a line of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing strong gusty winds and rough seas. The front will weaken as it moves SE Wed through Thu night. A round of NE swell generated to the N of a weakening front over the central Atlc will cause seas to build to 8 ft near 31N65W on Wed. High pressure is expected to slide NE from the Gulf of Mexico, along the SE coast of the United States Friday and Saturday, supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft east of the Bahamas.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today. Gale Warning Tue. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat into Sat night.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.

Home