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AGXX40 KNHC 031804
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
104 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM GEORGIA TO EAST TEXAS NORTH OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. WARM MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WAS SUPPORTING AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NW AND NE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG WAS NOTED OVER MAINLY THE COASTAL WATERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MUCH OF THIS HAS LIFTED OVER THE OFFSHORE AREAS AS NOTED IN VARIOUS PLATFORM DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. FOG WILL AGAIN BE A FACTOR MAINLY OVER THE NW GULF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE INDICATES DENSE FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE TOMORROW AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SUPPORTING THE ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WED...REACH FROM MOBILE BAY TO SOUTH OF TAMPICO EARLY THU...THEN STALL FROM SW FLORIDA TO FAR SW GULF BY EARLY FRI. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION CONCERNS THE LIKELIHOOD OF GALES OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES OFF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THU MORNING. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND SREF ARE NOT AS BULLISH WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN GMZ011 AND GMZ013. HOWEVER IT REMAINS LIKELY THAT EVEN SUSTAINED WINDS STAY JUST BELOW GALE FORCE THERE WILL BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...AND THUS GALE CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NW GULF THU MORNING. THERE REMAINS A GOOD CHANCE OF SUSTAINED GALES OFF THE TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ COASTS OF MEXICO LATER IN THE DAY THU AND THU NIGHT...PERSISTING WELL INTO FRI OFF VERACRUZ.

FOR FRI THROUGH SUN...THE STRONG FUNNELING WINDS OFF VERACRUZ EVENTUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY SAT...BUT PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE SW GULF WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE FAR WESTERN GULF THROUGH SUN.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT WINDS TO MINIMAL GALE WARNING FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 9-13 FT RANGE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...6-9 FT RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-6 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 7-10 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE WARNING FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY WED NIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. NE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED THIS MORNING FROM 31N60W TO 29N70W TO 31N75W. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE TODAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST BEHIND THE FRONT...SUPPORTING FRESH TRADES OVER THE REGION S OF 22N...IN PARTICULAR NEAR THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON WED. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THU...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST LATE THU. THE NEW FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA ON FRI BEFORE STALLING LATE FRI. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING THE FORMATION OF A WEAK LOW PRES AREA ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY LATE SAT. WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN POSITION AND TIMING...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS LOW MOVING N OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE SUN...WITH THE TRAILING FRONT REMAINING STALLED N OF THE BAHAMAS. THE IMPACT ON MARINE CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ANTICIPATED.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU.
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO FRI.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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