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AGXX40 KNHC 280657
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
257 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE YUCATAN COAST INTO THE SW GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...3-5 FT OVER THE NW WATERS...AND 2-3 FT OVER THE NE WATERS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH FRI. THE RIDGE WILL THEN RETREAT EASTWARD SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASE IN OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS AND EXTREME NW WATERS FRI TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY ACTIVE WEATHER THERE. A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING OVER THE YUCATAN. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF EACH MORNING.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A BROAD TROUGH N OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS WEAKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND MODERATE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-4 FT OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 4-5 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD N OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD TROUGH N OF THE FORECAST AREA DAMPENS OUT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A LARGE FETCH OF FRESH WINDS SOUTH OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OF THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HELP FOR SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEAS OVER THIS AREA WILL PEAK NEAR 9 FT SAT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE NE WATERS...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE SE WATERS...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE NE WATERS...4-6 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A NE-SW ORIENTATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT SLOWLY DAMPENS OUT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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