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AGXX40 KNHC 170811
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
411 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends across the northern Gulf from a 1013 mb high centered in the northeast Gulf near 28N85W to the coast of Texas. Offshore platforms and buoys indicated moderate to fresh winds in the northwest Gulf between the ridge and lower pressure over north central Mexico. The northern portion of a tropical wave is moving across the western Yucatan Channel and adjacent Gulf waters, and will move through the Yucatan peninsula by early Fri, and across the southwest Gulf through Sat. This will enhance the normal evening thermal trough that develops over western Yucatan and moves into the southwest Gulf overnight through Sun, supporting fresh winds off the west coast of Yucatan each evening. Little change is expected through early next week.




...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

A tropical wave reaches from northwest Venezuela to the Mona Passage, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Strong northeast winds are noted on a scatterometer pass through the Mona Passage ahead of the tropical wave. The tropical wave will pass through the western Caribbean by Sun. This will be ahead of an area of low pressure currently east of 55W, expected to develop further possibly into a tropical cyclone and move into the eastern Caribbean by Sat. The low is expected to deepen as it tracks WNW through the far northwest Caribbean through Mon night. Interest in the Caribbean should carefully monitor the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information on this developing low pressure.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

The northern portion of a tropical wave moving across the Mona Passage will pass westward to the south of 22N through early Sat. The tropical wave is in phase with an upper low, resulting in enhanced convection over a broad area south of 24N between 62W and 70W, which will generally shift westward with the coupled tropical wave and upper low through the southern Bahamas and Turks/Caicos Islands. Meanwhile an area of low pressure well to the southeast in the tropical Atlantic is moving WNW toward the region. There is some potential for this low to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days as it approaches the area, but strong upper level winds may weaken it before it crosses 65W north of Puerto Rico by early Sun. This will still bring strong winds and building seas to the area south of 25N from Sun through mid week. Meanwhile, a ridge along roughly 28N will move little through Sun then shift slowly northward early next week, maintaining light to gentle breezes into early next week north of 28N, with short period southeast swell of 4 to 6 ft.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.

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