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AGXX40 KNHC 290803
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
403 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

PRODUCT RELEASED EARLY FOR COMPUTER MAINTENANCE


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE NW GULF BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF AND A TROUGH OVER TEXAS. CMAN AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH SEAS TO 7 FT...WITH FRESH TO EVEN STRONG NE WINDS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRES. FRESH NE WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY OFF NW YUCATAN THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES AND 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL.

THERE REMAINS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE NW GULF TUE INTO WED...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BUT HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS OR SEAS. THE LOCAL EVENING TROUGHING OVER THE NW YUCATAN WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT...ENHANCING OVERNIGHT WINDS OFF NW YUCATAN AND IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM SE CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. A 03 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS ALONG WITH CONCURRENT REPORTS FROM BUOY 42055 INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE LEE SIDE OF CUBA TO THE NORTH OF THE DYING FRONT...AND TO THE SOUTH OF HIGH PRES MOVING FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN ATLC. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUOYS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE SE AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE LIKELY PULSING TO 25 KT OFF COLOMBIA. FARTHER EAST...AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT PERSISTING IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EAST OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS LIKELY IN NE SWELL.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE PERIODS OF AT LEAST 20 KT NE FLOW REPEATING ON THE LEE SIDE OF CUBA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 25 KT OFF COLOMBIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS...AND TO 20 KT OFF VENEZUELA AND THE ABC ISLANDS. BOTH MWW3 AND ECWAVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SWELL EAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WITH 5 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH MID WEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION STALLS AND DISSIPATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK S OF 24N. A SUPPORTING UPPER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC...PROVIDING A REINFORCMENT TO THE FRONT. THIS INCREASE WESTERLY FLOW N OF THE AREA EARLIER IN THE EVENING...AND IN TURN ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD TO 10 AND 11 FT AS NOTED IN BUOYS ALONG 31.5N...BUT A RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WERE LIKELY RESTRICTED TO THE WATERS N OF 30N E OF 75W SO FAR. NW SWELL FROM THE REINFORCED WINDS WILL REACH AS FAR S AS 27N W OF 75W THROUGH LATE TODAY. A SECOND REINFORCING IMPULSE WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINAS LATE MON AND TUE. MOST THE IMPACT OF THIS WILL BE CONSTRAINED TO N OF 31N HOWEVER. RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS ALONG ROUGHLY 27N...MAINTAININGRELATIVELY MILD MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT ARE NOTED.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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