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AGXX40 KNHC 030800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

STLT IMAGERY AND TPW ANIMATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANT TROF ACROSS THE NE GULF/BIG BEND REGION HAS SHIFTED NE AND INLAND AND LEAVING A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH ACROSS THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85.5W. TROFFING PERSISTS ACROSS THE SW GULF ALONG ABOUT 93W AND SHIFTING WNW. UPPER TROFFING SNAKING SW THEN S ACROSS NW AND W PORTIONS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIFT ACROSS W PORTIONS AND FORECAST TO DIG SWD TODAY ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THEN SW AND INLAND FRI WHILE N PORTION SINKS SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WEAK HIGH ACROSS NE GULF BECOMES DOMINANT FEATURE AND WILL DRIFT WNW AND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS BY SAT WITH WEAK RIDGING SE TO NW THAT WILL DRIFT S BY MON. THIS TO PRODUCE MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS AND ALLOW YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH TO BECOME ACTIVE AND SHIFT WNW EACH NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO RECENT SYNOPTIC REASONING WITH MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SE U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DIG S INTO NE GULF SUN NIGHT-MON WITH A WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF UPPER VORT DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL PORTIONS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A VERY WEAK SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC SHIFTS SLOWLY SE AND WEAKENS...FROM CENTRAL BAHAMAS SE TO W CENTRAL PORTIONS ALONG 22N. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR SW CARIB WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY LEAVING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT N OF 17N WHERE SHEARED TROPICAL WAVE MOISTURE STILL RESIDES.

WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING SE TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEXT FEW DAYS AND PROMOTE SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT FOR PULSING NOCTURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...BUT GFS NOT INDICATING WINDS REACHING 25 KT...UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

WEAK RIDGE PREVAILS NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA CENTERED ON A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 26N66W. THIS PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH PEAK WINDS AROUND 15 KT IN ELY TRADES ACROSS SE PORTIONS. SERIES OF TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS NE PORTIONS AS MID OCEANIC TROUGH DOMINATES THE MID LATS. TROUGHING AND BROAD WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO DROP IN OFF GA AND NE FL COASTAL ZONES AND SINK SE ACROSS W PORTIONS ...REACHING NW BAHAMAS BY 72 HRS THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT TO THE NE AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO N CENTRAL AND NE GULF. MODELS COMING IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF CENTRAL ATLC LOW NEXT FEW DAYS AND ASSOCIATED TROFFING EXTENDING WELL SW TO OFFSHORE OF NE CARIB AND PREFER A UKMET-GFS BLEND THERE.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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