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AGXX40 KNHC 271700
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface high will develop intermittently over the NW gulf waters along a surface ridge extending NW from SW Florida to the Texas Coastal Bend. Little change expected through Sat night, then the ridge will weaken and retract Eastward. A series of weak troughs are forecast to move slowly E across the NE gulf waters well to the N of the ridge. The current trough is accompanied by SCT TS, which will be depicted in the weather grids today. A more significant trough, or perhaps a weak cold front, will move off the Mississippi Delta on Sat night accompanied by a moderate SW-W-NW wind shift. This front will stall from the Florida Big Bend to 26N92W to the Texas Coastal Bend late Sun night. Blending global models leads to a solution of a weak surface low developing along the front over the NE gulf late Sun night, with low and frontal remnants drifting W on Tue as the ridge strengthens and rebuilds westward.

Further S...a thermal trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each night. The trough will drift westward during the overnight hours, and dissipate over the SW Gulf each morning. A moderate to locally fresh NE-E-SE wind shift is forecast along the trough, with seas of 2-4 ft.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

Ridging N of the area continues to support fresh to locally strong trade across the Caribbean to the S of 17N and E of 82W, with the strongest winds along the coasts of NW Venezuela and Northern Colombia, with the area of strong winds extending as far N as 15N just prior to sunrise each morning. May see strong e winds along s coast of Hispaniola on Tue night. Moderate to locally fresh trades forecast across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles through Mon, with guidance suggesting that seas will build to 8 ft E of the Leewards on Mon night behind a tropical wave, with these sea conditions reaching the NE passages on Tue night.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

An E to W ridge extending from 31N55W to Port Canaveral Florida will shift S to a position from 30N54W to Port of Miami Florida on Sat, from 30N55W to 23N80W on Mon, then shift back N from 29N55W to Fort Pierce Florida early Wed. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will develop W of 77W and N of the ridge on Fri, and continue through Sat ahead of a weak cold front slipping off the Se Georgia coast late Sat night. The front will stall from 31N76W to 29N81W on Mon, drift W on Tue, and move inland the SE CONUS on Tue night. Moderate to locally fresh easterly flow is forecast S of the ridge, except becoming strong during the late afternoons and evenings along the N coast of Hispaniola, including the AtlC approach to the Windward Passage, beginning on Mon afternoon. Further E, the northern extent of a tropical wave will pass W through the tropical waters S of 22N, beginning with zone AMZ127 late Mon night and reaching zone AMZ125 on Tue night accompanied by fresh E winds and seas to 8 ft.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.

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