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AGXX40 KNHC 111742
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1242 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND GENTLE TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE OVER THE SE GULF AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE FRI...AND SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH LATE SAT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF TEXAS BY LATE SAT BEFORE IT WEAKENS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO HONDURAS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE NW AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN... AND 7-8 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE N OF THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN PULSE TO GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING ON SUNDAY.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...A MIX OF EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL AND LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH THEN MEDIUM LATE IN THE FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 24N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 30N WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 10-13 FT RANGE OVER THE NE WATERS...6-9 FT ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD...MOVING E OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BRIEFLY THROUGH FRI BEFORE RETREATING EASTWARD. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS FRI NIGHT WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE MON INTO TUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY TUE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE AT THAT TIME WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE WARNINGS N OF 27N. THE GFS CONSISTENTLY INDICATES THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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