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AGXX40 KNHC 270638
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
238 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL IN THE NE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT... THEN WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 26N THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS CLIP THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF. THERMAL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING...SHIFTING OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND DISSIPATING BY EACH EARLY MORNING. FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNDER THIS PATTERN WITH MAINLY GENTLE WINDS...EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY PULSATING TO FRESH NW OF THE YUCATAN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN... EXCEPT UP TO 3-4 FT IN THE SW AND WESTERN GULF.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NE OF THE BASIN WHILE LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THIS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PULSATING UP TO 30 KT NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE. SEAS WILL BE 7-10 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... AND 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MAINLY MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU...EXCEPT INCREASING TO FRESH AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. TRADES WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY CONDITIONS AND SQUALLS TO THE E CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. COMBINED SEAS OF 3-5 FT IN MIXED N AND E SWELL WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT BY TUE AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY...THEN WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT FRI INTO SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 31N79W WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING NE-E OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH TO THE S OF 22N. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3-5 FT...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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