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AGXX40 KNHC 260558
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
158 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE NW COASTAL WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF REACHING THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY LIFT OUT NE ACROSS SOUTHERN GA EARLY MON REACHING OFFSHORE SC ON MON AFTERNOON LEAVING A NE-SW RIDGE ACROSS THE SE CONUS. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 3-5 FT ACROSS THE NW WATERS ON MON NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT EARLY TUE...AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES ON WED WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO NLY 5-10 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 22N W OF 90W ON WED NIGHT AND THU IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NE 15 KT FLOW CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE N TODAY WITH NE WINDS AT 15 KT CONTINUING ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 26N E OF 86W THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK W ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON MON-WED REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THU. THE WILL RESULT IN THE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING E AT 15 ACROSS THE FL STRAITS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...THEN INCREASING TO 15-20 KT MON EVENING THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO PERHAPS 6 FT IN THE GULF STREAM. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS THE FL STRAITS ON WED AND THU AS WINDS BACK TO THE NE AT 15-20 KT ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOSING IDENTITY ALONG 76W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS S OF 15N TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON MON-TUE...REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON WED-THU. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE S OF 17N ALONG 47W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE...AND PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON WED-THU.

BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING NEAR 16N82W AND IS ANALYZED AT 1008 MB. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND IS NOW WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY INTO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH SHOULD PULL THE COLD FRONT SE TO A POSITION OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY 15-20 KT WINDS WITH SEAS 3-5 FT ARE OBSERVED W OF THE COLD FRONT...EXCEPT NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS 5-8 FT ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT EARLY TODAY IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING SE TO OFFSHORE THE THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATE TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH ALL GUIDANCE MOVES THE LOW W ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...THE EUROPEAN ARRAY OF GUIDANCE IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BOTH THE THE NAM AND GFS IN THE STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WINDS WHICH WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. THE GFS IS OF COURSE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND SUGGESTING 30 KT...SO USING MODEL BLENDING TO REDUCE THE E FLOW TO MAX OF 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT PRIOR TO THE LOW MOVING INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON TUE EVENING. STILL EXPECT THE LOW TO DRAG REMNANTS OF THE FRONT W ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIP WHICH IS DENOTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N72W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS E CUBA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RACE NE OF THE AREA TODAY DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT E TO A POSITION FROM 31N60W TO HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 31N57W TO 26N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLY MON...WITH THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS DRIFTING W ACROSS THE FAR SE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ON MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM W TO E ALONG 28-29N W OF THE FRONT EARLY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING E OFF THE GA COAST TO NEAR 31.5N80W THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA ON MON MAINTAINING NE 15 KT FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N W OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ON MON INTO EARLY TUE...WITH THE WINDS THEN BECOMING ENE AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 25N ON WED-THU. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW WATERS ON WED NIGHT AND THU ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A 10 KT WIND SHIFT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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