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AGXX40 KNHC 030645
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SE WATERS AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE OVER THE SE WATERS...3-4 FT OVER THE SW WATERS...2-3 FT OVER THE NW WATERS...AND 1-2 FT OVER THE NE WATERS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS TODAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD WED ENABLING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW GULF WATERS LATE WED NIGHT. AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN WATERS THU AND THU NIGHT...AND LINGERING THROUGH EARLY FRI. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THU BEFORE STALLING OVER THE SE GULF FRI THROUGH SAT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT WINDS TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 9-13 FT RANGE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...6-9 FT RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-6 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 7-10 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY WED NIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. NE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...4-6 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND 1-3 FT RANGE W OF THE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS TODAY BEFORE MOVING E OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THU BEFORE RETREATING SLIGHTLY THU THIS WILL ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS THU NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS FRI NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE AREA SAT. STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT OVER THE NW WATERS BY WEEKS END.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU.
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO FRI.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO SUN.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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