Home


000
AGXX40 KNHC 311853
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
253 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING S THROUGH BASIN ATTM AND EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF NAPLES TO SW GULF NEAR 22.5N96W. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH S AND SE OF BASIN BY EARLY SAT. MAJOR FOCUS ON NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...STRONG COLD FRONT...MOVING INTO NRN GULF TONIGHT. COLDEST AIR ACROSS THE GULF YET THIS YEAR COMBINED WITH STILL WARM SST'S S OF THE N GULF SHELF WATERS WILL ALLOW SIGNIFICANT MIXING...AND 1000 TO 925 MB WINDS LIKELY TO YIELD BETTER INDICATION OF 10M WINDS N AND NE PORTIONS TONIGHT AND SAT. OFFSHORE ZONES ONLY YIELDING 30 KT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NE ZONES FOR TONIGHT...BUT HAVE INCORPORATED NE WFO'S WINDS FOR FREQUENT GALE GUSTS AND INCLUDED IN BOTH OFF'S AND HSF. GALES TO START FROM MOBILE BAY TO 85W AT 06Z TONIGHT THEN SHIFT EWD INTO BIG BEND REGION AT 12Z. WW3 LIKELY A LITTLE LOW AND SLOW ON WAVE GROWTH AND HAVE BLENDED NWPS...YIELDING 8-11 ACROSS NE OFF ZONE. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES WILL PREVAIL. LOOKING AHEAD...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHERN GULF...ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND FRESH SE RETURN FLOW OFF TEXAS THROUGH MON. FOR TUE...THE ECMWF AND GFS OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH INVERTED TROUGHING ALONG 70W...WITH GFS SHOWING SHARPER TROUGHING AND LESS WIND MOVING THROUGH STRAITS AND SE GULF. ATTM THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NE TO E FLOW THROUGH STRAITS MID WEEK AND WAVE AGAINST CURRENT SCENARIO AND HAVE BLENDED GFS-ECMWF 60-40 ON TUE.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

A TROPICAL WAVE S OF JAMAICA IS MOVING SLOWLY W ACROSS SW CARIBBEAN AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN BROAD MONSOONAL CIRCULATION AND INTERACTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NW CARIB BY AROUND 72 HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...AS ATLC RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS NE CENTRAL ATLC AND RIDGES TO NEAR BERMUDA. SEAS ARE ABOUT 2 TO 4 FT EVERYWHERE IN CARIB CURRENTLY...AND 5-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. A MODEST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SSE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT AND REACH NEAR WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JUST NW OF JAMAICA BY 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO LOSE IDENTITY...AS NEXT STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY SAT NIGHT...REACHES CENTRAL CUBA TO N GULF OF HONDURAS SUN MORNING THEN WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE COAST OF HONDURAS MON MORNING. 1030+ HIGH BEHIND FRONT ACROSS SE U.S. WILL FORCE FRESH TO STRONG N TO NELY FLOW BEHIND FRONT AND QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL MAX IN LEE OF CUBA AND THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE TO REACH 25-30 KT AND 10 FT MON EVENING THROUGH NIGHT. MODEST DIFFERENCES IN ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF INVERTED TROUGHING ALONG 70W TUE-WED YIELD SLIGHTLY DIFFERING WINDS ACROSS NW AND W CARIB...AND HAVE GONE WITH MEAN FOR TIME BEING. BROAD LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MODELS AND MOVE WNW THROUGH SRN BAHAMAS AND QUICKLY DIMINISH PRES GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS WED-FRI.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

A WEAK FRONT IS MOVING SE ACROSS NW WATERS AND S CENTRAL FLORIDA ATTM...WHILE A PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM NEAR 28N72W AND N OF PUERTO RICO/VI NEAR 24N65W. THE WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND THROUGH NW BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT AND INTO S CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SUN MORNING THEN TO WINDWARD PASSAGE MON MORNING AS IT WASHES OUT. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES AND GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE FIRST FRONT SUN NIGHT TO MON MORNING. STRONG CAA BEHIND THIS FRONT MOVING ACROSS STILL WARM ATLC WATERS W OF 66W SHOULD ALLOW GOOD MIXING AND HAVE BLENDED IN 925 MB WINDS TO REFLECT THIS...AND MATCHING REASONABLY WELL WITH SIMILAR PROCESS BY OPC. W TO NW GALES EXPECTED NW WATERS BY 12Z SAT SHIFTING ESE AND INTO FAR NW CORNER OF AMZ115 SAT NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO NE SUN 12-15Z. ASSOCIATED SWELL NOT QUITE AS LARGE AS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT BRIEF PERIOD OF 40 KT WINDS BEHIND FRONT IS GENERATING SEAS AS HIGH AS 20 FT PER LATEST NWPS RUN. W TO SW GALES TO 35 KT EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF FRONT AND ACTUALLY BETWEEN FRONTS THROUGH 48 HRS. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING POSITION TIMING AND IMPACT OF THIS PATTERN. NEXT QUESTION IS WHAT MAY EVOLVE FROM INVERTED TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALONG ABOUT 70W TUE-WED AND RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT TO THE W AND NW. SEE ABOVE.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Home