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AGXX40 KNHC 300726
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
326 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO NEAR 25N94W. SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FT BASED ON AN ALTIMETER PASS AND BUOYS OBSERVATIONS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING ON SUN. THEN...A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND MODEST SEAS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE NE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF MON AND TUE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF MATTHEW'S LARGE CIRCULATION. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN MATTHEW AND HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF THE WINDS TO 15 KT ACROSS THE SE GULF...WITH PROBABLY HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON HURRICANE MATTHEW. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MATTHEW HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. IN ADDITION... THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 979 MB. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS OVER THE SYSTEM INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND ONLY A SHORT DISTANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF MATTHEW ARE AFFECTING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 64W AND 70W... INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. AN ALTIMETER PASS JUST E OF MATTHEW SHOWS THE 12 FT SEAS EXTENDING WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM TO NE AND 150 NM TO SE QUADRANTS. MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 12 KT...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THIS HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO CROSS BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA ON MON APPROACHING EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY MON EVENING. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MATTHEW COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. SWELLS GENERATED BY MATTHEW ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA, THE ABC ISLANDS...VENEZUELA...AND COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE

THE SAME SCATTEROMETER PASS OVER MATTHEW ALSO SHOWS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TO ABOUT 21N. THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND HURRICANE MATTHEW. AS THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E FROM N FLORIDA FRI...THEN STALL JUST OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL PREVAIL N OF 22N THROUGH SAT. AS MATTHEW APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA ON MON...THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE S WATERS AND THE BAHAMAS.


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO SAT NIGHT.
.AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING SAT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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