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AGXX40 KNHC 260705
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
305 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE SUN-TUE.

A RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NW TODAY. MARINE OBS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE GULF. 2-4 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE BASIN...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. BEGINNING SUNDAY THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER A WEAK TROPICAL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR E CUBA WILL INTENSIFY ONCE IT ENTERS THE EASTERN GULF. EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOPMENT...BUT HAVE PERFORMED POORLY SO FAR WITH THIS STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...SO PREFER MUCH WEAKER GFS SOLUTION. IT WILL TAKE A LOT TO GET THIS LOW BACK TO A POINT WHERE TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS IS CONSIDERED LIKELY OR IMMINENT. THIS MEANS FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WAVE TRACKS WESTWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE BUT AGAIN THERE IS WIDE DIVERGENCE OF OPINION BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS. STAY TUNED.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOWER PRESSURE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IS KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO A TYPICAL PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA HIGH IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLIES IN THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SUN. RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC MON AND TUE WHICH WILL BRING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELL GENERATED BY GASTON IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 18N E OF 57W TODAY.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS NE OF THE BAHAMAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH A WEAK LOW EVIDENT FROM SAT AND SYNOPTIC DATA JUST N OF EASTERN CUBA. THE LOW IS SO WEAK IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS WHILE E OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER TODAY IN MUCH WEAKER GFS MODEL AS THE BEST CHOICE FOR SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. GFS CORRECTLY DEPICTS AN AREA OF FRESH E-SE WINDS NW OF THE LOW AND MUCH BROADER WAVE TRANSITING THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH DISORGANIZED RANDOM SHOWER ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT...SEAS WILL BE LOWER THIS FORECAST CYCLE BY A FOOT OR TWO THAN PREVIOUS.

ELSEWHERE...LARGE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH GASTON WILL REACH FORECAST WATERS BETWEEN 55-60W TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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