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AGXX40 KNHC 020536
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
136 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN E-W RIDGE EXTENDS TAMPA BAY TO THE EXTREME NE TX COAST WITH A SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS AS AFTERNOON HEAT TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND TEMPORARILY SEPARATES THE GULF RIDGE SEGMENT FROM THE ATLC RIDGE. LIGHT-GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE E-SE WINDS EXPECTED FURTHER OUTWARD AROUND THE S AND SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WESTERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED N OF THE RIDGE OVER THE FAR NE WATERS. THE EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE THE THERMAL TROUGH 20-25 KT ENHANCEMENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING THAT WILL MOVE WNW AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT AN E-SE 20-25 KT WIND SHIFT WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS MOVED SE TO OVER FL BAY WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER ITS E SEMICIRCLE PROVIDING FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL FL AND OVER WESTERN CUBA. A UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF HAS SET UP AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR NW GULF. THESE AREAS WILL BE DENOTED IN WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT FURTHER N TO A POSITION FROM CEDAR KEY FL TO THE MS DELTA THROUGH MON.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A NOCTURNAL PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. ANOTHER PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE IS EXPECTED ON THU NIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRI NIGHT. THE NOCTURNAL INCREASE OF TRADES TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN ON THU...FRI AND SAT NIGHTS.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 13N ALONG 47W WILL REACH ALONG 55W ON SAT AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM ROUGHLY 30N65W TO CAPE CANAVERAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE BUT PULSE TO 15-20 KT N OF 30N AS WEAK TROUGHS MOVE OFF THE SE GA COAST IMMEDIATELY STALLING AND WASHING OUT OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE NE FL/SE GA. MODERATE E-SE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY EVENINGS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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