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AGXX40 KNHC 210720
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
220 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1015 MB LOW PRES LOCATED S OF MOBILE BAY NEAR 29N87W TO 25N93W TO NEAR POZA RICA MEXICO. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 6 FT BASED ON BUOYS OBSERVATIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT E ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS TODAY AND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT N. BY LATE MON...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS AROUND NOONTIME ON TUE. CURRENTLY...THE GEFS PROBABILITIES OF GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SW PORTIONS OF THE GULF WHILE THE SREF PROBABILITIES REACH 20-30 PERCENT...AND CONFIDENCE THUS IS HIGH ON OCCURRENCE. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30-35 KT ACROSS ZONES GMZ011 AND GMZ017 BY TUE EVENING...AND ACROSS ZONE GMZ023 TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED ZONES TUE EVENING THROUGH LATE WED MORNING. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING...AND WILL MOVE EAST OF AREA LATE WED. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN AND SW WATERS W OF THE FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WED. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION. PEAK SEAS LIKELY 10-13 FT BEHIND FRONT WITH MAX AROUND 15 FT SW PORTIONS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN EARLIER ASCAT PASSES PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY INTO MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 0600-1200 UTC WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-11 FT.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S ALONG 87W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT W AND INLAND TODAY REACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING THEN WILL DISSIPATE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU MORNING...AND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 8 FT WITH NE SWELL ACROSS ZONE AMZ037 TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE ON TUE.


...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS INCREASE SOME S OF 22N WHERE MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED PARTICULARLY NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER THERE THROUGH TONIGHT... BEFORE MOVING N OF THE AREA MON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NW WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY WED. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N77W TO W CUBA THU MORNING...AND FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 10 FT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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