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AGXX40 KNHC 210551
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
151 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AGRICULTURE SMOKE INDICATED ON LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW GULF ON MON THUS INTRODUCED INTO WEATHER GRIDS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM FL PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO WHERE IT HAS ALREADY STALLED. A LINE OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION PRECEDES THE FRONT AND IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING E ACROSS THE NE GULF A FEW HOURS BEHIND. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL GULF TODAY. NE-E 10-15 KT WINDS OBSERVED N OF 24N W OF THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLOCK TO SE BY EARLY WED. EXPECT THE LOCALIZED EVENING THERMAL ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EACH EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 20- 25 KT EVENT ON FRI EVENING. THESE E-SE PULSES WILL PROPAGATE W ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH THE TROUGH LOSING IDENTITY OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOONS. OTHERWISE...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH SE 5-10 KT FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE WED...THEN INCREASING TO 10-15 KT AGAIN ON THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 210 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND WED...THEN THE AFFECTED AREA SHOULD SHRINK TO WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST ON EACH NIGHT STARTING WITH ON THU NIGHT. E-SE TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. N SWELL RESULTING IN 7-8 FT COMBINED SEAS EXTEND W ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS S OF 13N. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE FROM THE N THIS MORNING WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS BY NOON. THE NEXT ROUND OF NNE SWELL WILL REACH 19N55W LATE WED NIGHT DRIVING THE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 8 FT AGAIN BY MIDDAY THU...WITH THESE CONDITIONS REACHING NEAR THE E CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THU EVENING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY FRI...THEN SUBSIDING FROM THE N ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE FROM 28N55W TO 31N64W TODAY. A WEAK LOW PRES IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE ATLC WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT N TODAY A DRAG A COLD FRONT E REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT...THEN STALL FROM 31N55W TO 25N70W ON WED. ANOTHER ROUND OF N SWELLS...SEAS 7-9 FT...WILL PROPAGATE S THROUGH THE WATERS E OF 60W TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU...SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY THU AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE THU...AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE FRI ACCOMPANIED BY A 10-15 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL FROM 31N58W TO 26N65W. THE SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY SAT FURTHER INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 30N EITHER SIDE OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE NE FL COAST SAT AFTERNOON REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS EARLY SUN.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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