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AGXX40 KNHC 301826
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
226 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EACH DAY. CURRENTLY...THE MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE U.S. SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N E OF 90W IN A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR TSTMS. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING EACH EVENING...PUSHING OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATING IN THE SW GULF EACH MORNING. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PULSING WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EACH NIGHT. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT EACH EVENING FROM SAT THROUGH MON...WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 4-6 FT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRI. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 12-14 FT WITHIN AROUND 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF 25-30 KT TRADES ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON FRI AND REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SURGE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SAT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUN. PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI EVENING AND NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS IT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AND FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE N WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN... EXPECT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SE-S WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT S OF 27N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PULSING 20-25 KT EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS THROUGH MON NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT WITH THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ033...GULF OF VENEZUELA...GALE WARNING TONIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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