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000
AGXX40 KNHC 291333
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
933 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

UPDATED MIM TO REFLECT DROPPING OF ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATING T.S. ERIKA.


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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL AND HURRICANE WARNING MODEL CONSENSUS

LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAS NEARLY WASHED OUT...WITH REMNANT TROUGH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N88.5W...AND EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED BY THIS EVENING PER THE GFS. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH RUNS PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FEATURE FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY TO TAMPICO...WITH ACTIVE CNVTN CONTINUING ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PER RECENT STLT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE N GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST PROBLEM NOW BECOMES ERIKA. LATEST NHC FORECAST FOLLOWING THE GFS CLOSELY AND HAS SHIFTED WWD YET AGAIN AND NOW EXITING CUBA NEAR LA HABANA AND MOVING NNW TOWARD FL PANHANDLE. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS WITH THIS DISRUPTED SYSTEM...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISEDTO SEE THIS TREND OF SHIFTING WWD TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW RUNS...AND THUS ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF SHOULD MONITOR ERIKA. NWPS WILL NOT BE BACK IN TIME FOR USE ON THIS PACKAGE AND WILL HAVE TO RELY ON 06Z WW3. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCDAT5/WTNT45 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS.

WHERE IS ERIKA NOW AND WHAT IS LEFT AFTER PASSAGE OVER HISPANIOLA. FIRST INSPECTION OF STLT DATA SUGGESTS ORIGINAL CENTER OF 48 HOURS AGO NOW A REMNANT TROUGH ALONG 75W AND MOVING INTO ERN COAST OF CUBA. HOWEVER STLT IMAGERY AND OCCASIONAL RADAR IMAGES FROM CUBA SUGGEST NEWER CENTER OF ERIKA CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE CNVTN AND HAS EMERGED FROM LARGE CDO ACROSS W COASTAL WATERS OF HAITI AND NEARING THE SW TIP OF THE TIBURON PENINSULA AND MOVING WWD TOWARD CARIB APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE. WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CARIB DOWN THIS MORNING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE N TO NE FLOW...AND WERE ONLY 15-20 KT OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA PER A 02Z ASCAT PASS. LATEST NHC FORECAST MOVING ERIKA ALONG SE COAST OF CUBA AND THEN COMPLETELY INLAND NEAR 80W. THUS WIND AND SEAS TO INCREASE QUICKLY NW WATERS TODAY ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH NELY FLOW AHEAD OF ERIKA. WEAK ATLC RIDGING TO BUILD INTO BAHAMAS BEHIND ERIKA TONIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN FOR BROAD ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CENTRAL PORTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUN THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH WED. WINDS COULD PEAK NEAR 30 KT TONIGHT THERE. NEXT LARGE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL ENTER THE CARIB LATER TODAY...REACH NEAR 63-64W THIS EVENING...70W SUN EVENING...AND 76W MON EVENING. SHARP LOW TO MOD TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO WEAKEN PRES GRADIENT AT SFC SLIGHTLY DURING PASSAGE. THE FOLLOWING WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS 5 FT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS.

STRONG WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH OLD VORTEX OF ERIKA MOVING THROUGH SE BAHAMAS ATTM...WITH BROADER WIND FIELD OF 20-30 KT EXTENDING NE AND OUTSIDE OF BAHAMAS. EVENING ALTIMETER PASS SUGGESTED 10-12 FT SEAS PROPAGATING NW OUTSIDE OF BAHAMAS AND WILL MOVE THROUGH WATERS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS MORNING. THIS WIND SURGE EXPECTED TO MOVE NW AND ACROSS REMAINDER OF BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND INTO SE FLORIDA OVERNIGHT... ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH SW OF BERMUDA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH NE GULF UPPER TROUGH PRODUCING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FAR NW PORTIONS THROUGH MON. SFC PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN ERIKA AND RIDGE TO PRODUCE FRESH TRADES SE PORTIONS TONIGHT AND SUN THEN BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH MON-TUE...WITH LATE AFTERNOON EVENING WIND MAX EXPECTED ALONG N COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
.NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER COBB/STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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