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AGXX40 KNHC 251844
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
144 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE USUAL AREA OFF VERACRUZ BY THIS AFTERNOON. GALES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ERUPTING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF...NEAR A 1012 MB LOW THAT HAS FORMED NEAR 27N87W. AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT POCKETS OF CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF...PRODUCING OCCASIONALLY STRONG GUSTS.

WHILE THERE REMAINS HIGH CERTAINTY AMONG MAJOR MODELS THAT THERE WILL BE GALES OVER MUCH OF THE GULF IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXTENT OF THE GALES HOWEVER AS THE LATEST GFS...GFS PARALLEL AND UKMET ARE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN EARLIER AND DO NOT SHOW GALES REACHING OFFSHORE ZONE GMZ112 IN THE SE GULF TONIGHT AS EARLIER DEPICTED. THE SREF IS ALSO NOT INDICATING GALES IN THIS ZONE...BUT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER FORECASTS AND INCLUDES A SMALL AREA OF GALES IN THE NW PORTION OF THIS ZONE. THE RATIONALE IS THAT THE LOOP CURRENT REACHES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS ZONE OFFERING EFFICIENT MIXING OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

HIGH PRES OVER TEXAS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND WED AHEAD OF REINFORCING FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.THE REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH EARLY THU...POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE FAR NE GULF. STRONGER HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BUILD OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...MAINTAINING STRONG NE TO E WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE GULF THROUGH EARLY FRI. WINDS AND SEAS IN THESE AREAS DIMINISH FRI THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES MOVES E TO THE CAROLINAS...ALLOWING FRESH SE RETURN OVER THE TEXAS COAST.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...SOUTH OF RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS...WITH NOCTURNAL MAX DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND LIKELY BUILDING 11-12 FT OFF COLOMBIA. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

A STRONG ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADES ACROSS BASIN E OF 80W AND FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY ERODE W PORTION OF RIDGE AND GRADIENT RELAXES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SPREADING S THROUGH THE CHANNEL AND OFFSHORE OF BELIZE. FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL GULF OF HONDURAS BY 00Z THU...AND FINALLY STALLING FROM E CENTRAL CUBA TO NE COAST OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT. AS SECONDARY FRONT DROPS INTO N GULF EARLY THU...PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS NW PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT AND INCREASE WINDS 25-30 KT FROM OFFSHORE OF BELIZE INTO GULF OF HONDURAS WITH SEAS BUILDING 10-12 FT THROUGH FRI. THE STRONG WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRONT...WITH EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUING SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SE OF GFS.


...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ATLC RIDGING CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND INTO FAR SE BAHAMAS. LOW LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND AID IN PRODUCING STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND A LONG FETCH OF NE WINDS 20-25 KT INTO WATERS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF NE FLORIDA AND THE RIDGE WEAKENS THROUGH THU.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF NE FL COAST LATER TODAY AND MEANDER THERE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT RACES NE ACROSS N HALF OF FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING AND DEEPENS ACROSS W ATLC WED. MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH AS EARLIER SHOWING GALES OFF N OF 30N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W TOMORROW MORNING...BUT GIVEN THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVER THE GULF STREAM REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG SUSTAINED GALES OR AT LEAST FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

A REINFORCING FRONT WILL CATCH UP TO THE INITIAL MEANDERING FRONT WED AND BEGIN TO PUSH IT SE...REACHING 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 80W BY 00Z THU AND EVENTUALLY STALLING AND BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE FROM 25N65W TO E CENTRAL CUBA SAT EVENING. NW WINDS MAINLY 20-25 KT EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT W OF 75W WED. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK WITH NE TO E TRADES FRESHENING S OF 25-26N SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E INTO W ATLC.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE WARNING TONIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W GALE WARNING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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