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AGXX40 KNHC 280806
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
406 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 00Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1018 MB HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER THE NE GULF NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. A RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO THE LOUISIANA COAST.

LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SUPPORTS GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGHOUT. RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW RELATIVELY LOW SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF.

THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE THERMAL TROUGH THAT TYPICALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE DAY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD ATTENDED BY A PERIOD OF FRESH NE WINDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE OF SEAS. WINDS COULD BECOME FRESH TO STRONG ON SATURDAY NIGHT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 00Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTRL ATLC AND LOWER PRES OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF S AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE ERN PORTION OF THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS LOCATED IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE S CNTRL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TODAY WILL REACH FROM THE COASTS OF COLUMBIA AND VENEZUELA TO THE S COASTS OF JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 68W AND 79W. RESULTANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11 FT. THE GRADIENT PRODUCING THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY AND SAT IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES MOVING E FROM THE UNITED STATES E COAST. HOWEVER...MAX SEAS OF 11 FT WILL BE SLOW IN SUBSIDING IN THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 80W FROM 12N TO 22N. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR WESTERN CUBA FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY THU EVENING...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC DURING FRI. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES SAT EVENING...AND THE CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SE AND AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 FT FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 49W AND 57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 00Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE SE AND S CNTRL PORTIONS SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26N70W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE RIDGING IS MAINTAINING RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE REGION. A RATHER WEAK PRES GRADIENT IS EVIDENT N OF 26N NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE BASIN S OF 26N. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE SEEN ALONG THE N COASTS OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS N OF HISPANIOLA COULD REACH 8 FT ON SAT EVENING.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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