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AGXX40 KNHC 250725
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
325 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast to persist across the basin through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

Weak high pressure will linger in the N central Gulf through the period with an E to W ridge oscillating along 26N/27N. Gentle to moderate flow around the high and ridge will prevail, except occasionally to fresh NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to the typical afternoon development of a thermal trough which will push offshore into the SW Gulf each evening before dissipating. A series of weak troughs will clip across the NE Gulf with little impact. Seas will be mainly 2 ft or less, except 3 to 4 ft across western portions this morning through Wednesday night before subsiding.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

The main area of concern in the short term is NW of the coast of Colombia where recent scatterometer data showed NE to E winds near gale force. Minimal gale force winds may be occurring at 30m for the next few hours, but these winds are not expected at lower elevations. Nevertheless, seas are up to 10 to 12 ft across this area, while a large area of fresh to strong trades covers the waters elsewhere S of 18N between 68W and 80W, along with seas of 7 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are found elsewhere across the basin along with 4 to 7 ft seas, except winds will be locally strong in the immediate Gulf of Honduras for the next couple of hours.

Little change is anticipated through early Wednesday. The pressure gradient is forecast to slacken thereafter, with fresh to strong trades shrinking in coverage and becoming confined to the S central waters through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Mainly moderate trades will prevail elsewhere.

In the tropical N Atlantic, moderate trades will prevail through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. A surge of fresh trades is expected for the second half of the weekend with seas building to 6 to 8 ft N of 10N.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Ridging extending from high pressure in the central Atlantic will continue to dominate the waters through the next several days.

Mainly moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft will prevail through Wednesday night outside the Bahamas and 2 ft or less inside protected areas, except winds will be locally fresh to strong from just N of Hispaniola to the approach of the Windward Passage through this evening. The ridging will weaken somewhat by late Wednesday as a surface trough migrates in from E of 65W. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate due to the weakening pressure gradient, with mainly fresh seas subsiding to 2 to 4 ft across the open waters. The ridge will begin to rebuild Thursday night while troughing over the Carolinas deepens at the same time. This will increase the pressure gradient over the offshore waters, especially the NW portion where SW flow will increase to fresh late Thursday through early Saturday.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.

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