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AGXX40 KNHC 021814
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
214 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE REMNANT TROUGH OF ERIKA REACHES FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO 27N89W. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER NE WATERS. CURRENT SEAS ARE 1 TO 2 FT IN THE NE GULF ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ALTIMETER PASS. LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WIND FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN...EXCEPT OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 4 FT. SIMILAR SEA HEIGHTS ARE ALSO OVER THE NW GULF. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE NE GULF...MAINTAINING THE LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES AND MODEST SEAS OVER MOST OF THE GULF. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE A TROUGH WILL FORM EACH EVENING...TEMPORARILY ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC SHIFTS SLOWLY SE AND WEAKENS. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THIS MORNING WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W/75W WILL CONTINUE W ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY EARLY SAT AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESH E WINDS OFF THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT NIGHT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

WEAK RIDGE WITH 1019 MB HIGH CENTER OVER THE THE NE REGION CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE AREA TODAY. BUOY DATA SHOW SEAS ONLY 3 TO 4 OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A TROUGH SINKS SLOWLY SE INTO THE WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...AND SETTLES ALONG 28N/29N SAT THROUGH SUN.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NR/GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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