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AGXX40 KNHC 281705
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM SW FL TO THE NE TX COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRES CENTERS FORMING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT...NEARLY STALL ON TUE...WITH REMNANTS OF THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER THE E GULF THROUGH WED EVENING. WESTERLY 10-15 KT WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT OVER THE N-CENTRAL AND NE GULF TODAY THROUGH LATE TUE...BECOMING NW-N AT 10 KT BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT. EXPECT 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 23N AFTER THE FRONT LOSES IDENTITY ON WED...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH MORNING OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...SHIFT W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH AFTERNOON...AND THEN LOSE IDENTITY BY THE EVENING HOURS. NE-E 10 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N... EXCEPT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE 1-5 LOW CONFIDENCE DAY 6 AND 7.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 20N ALONG 41W HAS BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE SPAWNED A LOW PRES NEAR 10N32.5W WHICH IS ESTIMATED ESTIMATED AT 1014 MB. FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL FORECAST THE WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURGE IN THE EASTERLIES. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED TO THE S OF 14N E OF THE WAVE AND W OF THE LOW WITH SIGNS OF BANDING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THUS...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS WILL CROSS 55W EARLY FRI MORNING AND AFFECT THE LEEWARDS EARLY SAT. THE GFS AND UKMET HAS SIMILAR TRACKS BUT THE GFS IS FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSITY. NHC/WPC COORDINATED MEDIUM RANGE MOVES THE LOW NW SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS...THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS...BUT TONED DOWN THE MAX INTENSITY TO 30 KT AND THAT INTENSITY IS MOSTLY OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE.

STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF NEAR GALE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. MOD-FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT INCREASING BRIEFLY TO STRONG TONIGHT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE DAY 1-5 LOW CONFIDENCE DAY 6 AND 7.

A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM 30N60W TO SE FL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY 15-20 KT FLOW EXPECTED N OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FL COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG 31N76W TO 29N80W LATE TUE NIGHT...WITH REMNANTS OF THE FRONT DRIFTING W AND PASSING BACK OVER THE NE FL COAST LATE FRI NIGHT. EASTERLY TRADES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT THROUGH EARLY THU. THE TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE THU AND LATE FRI ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 10N32.5W WITH ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 1014 MB HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES NW WITH ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MOVING INTO ATLC ZONE AMZ127 ON FRI NIGHT AND INTO AMZ125 ON SAT NIGHT. THIS IS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO EXPECT MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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