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000
AGXX40 KNHC 221857
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
257 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 22/1800 UTC IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE JUST OFFSHORE OR W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19.3N 92.1W OR ABOUT 96 NM W-SW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS SLOWLY MOVING E AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED WITH INTENSE SHEAR AND DRY AIR IMPACTING THE SYSTEM. A VIGOROUS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIVING S-SE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EVEN SO...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM SEAS TO 12 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION.

MEANWHILE...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...WHILE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NE GULF AND WILL SOON OVERTAKE THE OLD STATIONARY FRONT. RECENT IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPRESSION. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT E OF 87W AND 4-7 FT W OF 87W.

THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST HAS THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENING TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM BY 00Z THIS EVENING JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL...THEN WEAKENING BACK TO A DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS QUICKLY DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING SHORTLY AFTER IT MOVES INLAND. THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD EXTENDING FROM 27N82W TO 25N87W TO 25N94W THIS EVENING...THEN FROM 25N81W TO 23.5N87W TO 21N91W BY THU MORNING BEFORE STALLING THROUGH EARLY FRI. THE FRONT WILL THEN FINALLY PUSH SE OF THE BASIN BY LATE FRI WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT BEHIND THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE BASIN-WIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH...THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT N OF 26N AND 3-5 FT S OF 26N BY SUN...EXCEPT TO 6 FT STILL NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS (NWPS NOT AVAILABLE). HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU...THEN LOW-MEDIUM.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS E OF 74W AND MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS W OF 74W...EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 19N W OF 80W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU NIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE CURRENTLY IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO JUST W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MAY STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO MOVING INLAND OVER THE PENINSULA BY EARLY THU... THEN WILL WEAKEN BACK TO A DEPRESSION AND EMERGE E OF THE YUCATAN IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN BY FRI MORNING. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL LIKELY STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY EARLY FRI. MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF BOTH THE DEPRESSION AND THE COLD FRONT LEADS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT AND THE DEPRESSION...GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS WILL PERSIST WHILE SEAS REMAIN 3-5 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 18N WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN THU...CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI...AND W CARIBBEAN LATE SAT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE THE WATERS SAT AFTERNOON TROUGH SUN. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS (NWPS NOT AVAILABLE). HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN LOW-MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHWEST WATERS ALONG 30N79W SW TO 30N81W. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS REMAINS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WED MORNING...STALLING WESTWARD TO NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OFFSHORE WATERS. A LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT JUST NE OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THU MORNING. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BACK INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THU NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN SUCH STATUS WHEN IT MOVES TO NW CARIBBEAN WATERS ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS/S OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LEWITSKY/RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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