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AGXX40 KNHC 300641
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
241 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH THE GFS. MWW3 AND TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS BEGINNING TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY THU. A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI. THE FASTER 00Z GFS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE GEFS AND EC ENS MEANS...WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER. THE GFS SHOWS GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS AND MWW3/NWPS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST.




...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING JUST N OF THE CARIBBEAN INVOF 22N. THIS IS INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS TO 25 KT WERE OBSERVED BY THE 0150Z ASCAT-A AND 0242Z ASCAT-B PASSES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE CRYOSAT ALTIMETER MEASURED SEAS TO 9 FT. THE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND GRADUALLY SHIFT W THROUGH THU MORNING. AFTERWARD...INCREASED TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST WINDS BACK S AND E OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE GFS APPEARS REASONABLE WITH WINDS HERE AND WITH THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES DRIVING THEM.




...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH THE GFS. MWW3 AND TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE MODELS FROM LAST NIGHT WERE A BIT TOO FAST TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEAR BERMUDA AND MOVE IT TO THE N...BUT THE CURRENT RUNS ARE LIKELY BETTER FORECASTS AS THE BROAD TROUGH EXPECTED TO PICK UP THE LOW IS NOW APPROACHING FROM THE W. THIS LOW NEAR BERMUDA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BROAD TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W TODAY. THE BROAD TROUGH TO THE W IS CURRENTLY CARRYING ENERGY EASTWARD FROM THE NE GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING E INTO THE ATLC. IT IS EXPECTED TO DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY TROUGH WED NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE 18Z GEFS TO CARRY THIS LOW E-NE THROUGH THE ATLC. THE 12Z ECMWF IS WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS...BUT ITS MEAN SOLUTION IS FASTER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN. THE 12Z GFS FALLS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WITH THE TIMING OF THE LOW AND FRONT. THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS THE PROBABILITY OF WINDS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA BELOW 20 PERCENT UNTIL EARLY WED. THE OPERATIONAL RUN AGREES AND PLACES 30 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW BY 12Z WED. THE GFS IS ON THE DEEPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LIKELY HAS SOME GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES THAT ARE ENHANCING THE WIND. BLENDING THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE GENERAL STRUCTURE OF THE PATTERN...WITH THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION APPEARS REASONABLE. THIS SOLUTION REFRAINS FROM PICKING WINDS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL 18Z WED...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GEFS MEAN. THE GFS AND NWPS/MWW3 WERE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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