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AGXX40 KNHC 251722
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
122 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST GLOBAL WAVE MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD BY MID WEEK AND THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. GENTLE TO MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS THAT CURRENTLY COVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS NORTH THIS WEEK. MAINLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A THERMAL TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING AND MOVE WEST OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SUPPORTING LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

THIS WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN WILL SUPPORT SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT NORTH OF 25N AND 2 TO 4 FT S OF 25N THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL THEN BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT WED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST GLOBAL WAVE MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL INTENSIFY MID WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS TO COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MAINLY MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR JAMAICA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN ZONES OF THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY TUESDAY...THEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 32W WILL ENTER THE EASTERN ATLC ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ON THURSDAY.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST GLOBAL WAVE MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 28N. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES MID WEEK. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF 25N THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG STARTING EACH EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING EACH DAY THIS WEEK. NORTH OF 25N W OF 70W GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS N OF 25N EAST OF 70W THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES...RESULTING IN MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EAST OF 78W STARTING MID WEEK. THEN...SOUTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF 28N W OF 78W ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH LATE THIS WEEK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

SOUTH OF 25N EAST OF THE BAHAMAS SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALONG AND WEST OF THE BAHAMAS SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE FORECAST. 3 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25 THROUGH THE WEEK.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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