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AGXX40 KNHC 281811
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
211 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE NE GULF TO THE SE GULF TODAY WHERE IT WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SHIFT WILL BE DUE TO A SERIES OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS WHICH WILL MANAGE TO SAG S INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE TROUGHS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. OTHERWISE THERMAL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING EACH EVENING...SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND INTO THE SW GULF WHERE DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 2-4 FT IN THE SW GULF WITH PULSING WINDS TO 20 KT AHEAD OF EACH THERMAL TROUGH.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PULSING TO 30 KT NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A RELATIVELY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE E CARIBBEAN ISLANDS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 7-11 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN ATLC RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM E TO W ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGING...EXCEPT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TO THE S OF 22N THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. COMBINED SEAS OF 3-5 FT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN... EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL/LEWITSKY/LANDSEA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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