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AGXX40 KNHC 031740
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND WW3 MODELS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHERN GULF. SURFACE OBS INDICATE 15-20 KT WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT E-SE TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED...THEN MOVE SE OF THE AREA EARLY THU. MODELS SHOW A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THU...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NW GULF THEN SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THU THROUGH SUN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND WW3 MODELS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW FROM A HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM ABC ISLANDS ACROSS THE WINDWARDS INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES MODERATE E-SE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...LIGHT TO GENTLE E WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SEA HEIGHTS ARE 6-7 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. THE RIDGE WILL SLOW RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH SAT...WHILE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SWEEPS E-SE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU AND WEAKEN FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE NICARAGUA FRI...THEN REACH FROM HAITI THROUGH JAMAICA TO SE NICARAGUA SAT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEAR 20 KT WINDS SPREADING ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT THU THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND WW3 MODELS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PAST BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC E-SE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N OF 25N AND MODERATE E WINDS S OF 25N. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. BUOY DATA INDICATES SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4-5 FT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE FLA COAST WED TO EXTEND FROM 31N74W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS THU...FROM 31N68W TO EASTERN CUBA FRI...AND FROM 28N68W TO HAITI SAT...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN FROM 25N65W TO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SUN. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS S-SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 6-8 FT THROUGH FRI. A SECONDARY PUSH OF REINFORCING COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS WED NIGHT AND THU...AND MAY CATCH UP WITH THE LEADING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY FRI. MODERATE NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE FRI AND SAT FOR ONLY MODEST WAVE GROWTH N OF THE BAHAMAS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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