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AGXX40 KNHC 271834
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
234 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

A RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...EXTENDING FROM W ATLC SW...AND IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS PARENT HIGH IS SHIFTING NE ATTM. MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE ACROSS S AND SE TEXAS THAT HAS INTERACTED WITH A WEAK S/W MOVING E ACROSS TEXAS AND COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING FOR ANOTHER SQUALL LINE AGAIN MOVING SE ACROSS SE TEXAS AND LA COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WIND FLOW DEPICTED BY RECENT OBS AND SCAT PASS. YUCATAN TROUGH PROVIDED SUFFICIENT WIND FIELD OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING TO RAISE SEAS ACROSS SW PORTIONS TO 7 FT PER BUOY 42055. ELSEWHERE SEAS GENERALLY 4-5 FT ATTM.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING OVER THE YUCATAN...DRIFT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF EACH MORNING. AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND A DECREASE IN OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS SAT AND SUN. NEXT SIGNIFICANT S/W TO MOVE ACROSS TEXAS AND EXTREME NW PORTIONS FRI FOR ROUND OF VERY ACTIVE WEATHER THERE.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS

LATEST DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ALBEIT GRADUALLY SHRINKING IN AREAL COVERAGE...WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE EXPECT FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND MOST OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-5 FT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...2-4 FT OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN...4-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 4-5 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS BROAD CENTRAL TROUGH SHIFTS GRADUALLY WWD AND WEAKENS THE REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST WATERS AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD SWD INTO THE AREA...TO THE E OF THE WWD SHIFTING BROAD ATLC TROUGH. SEAS ACROSS S HALF OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT FRI...AND PEAK AT 7-9 FT SAT EVENING.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

BROAD INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WWD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYERED UPPER CYCLONE...WITH SURFACE TROUGHING NOW TAKING ON MORE CURVED CONFIGURATION. A 1333 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED LLVL CYCLONIC SWIRL HAS LIKELY WORKED DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH SFC LOW ESTIMATED NEAR 27N64.5W ATTM. SURFACE RIDGE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND PRODUCING SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT FOR STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW OUT TO ABOUT 68-70W...AND STRONG SE WINDS WELL TO THE E OF TROUGH E OF 60W. SEAS ACROSS N AND NW PORTIONS OF THIS CIRCULATION 7-10 FT WITH POSSIBLE PEAK TO 11 FT JUST N OF OUR WATERS AT 12Z. WIND SURGE HAS PUSHED OLD BOUNDARY AND AREA OF MOISTURE SW ACROSS BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING AND NOW MOVING INTO ATLC COASTS OF GREATER ANTILLES...WITH NE WINDS NEAR 20 KT ACROSS BAHAMAS INTO CLOUD BAND. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD INTO E PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THU...WITH SOME LLVL TROFFING CONTINUING TO SHIFT WWD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVING W OF 70W. CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN BUT REORGANIZE ALONG ABOUT 60W THROUGH SAT BEFORE FILLING AND BEGINNING TO MOVE ESE SUN. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A LLVL TROF BETWEEN 60W AND 65W THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MAINTAIN A VERY WEAK YET BROAD INVERTED TROUGH FROM EXTREME SE BAHAMAS NE ACROSS E PORTIONS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN WEAKENED PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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