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AGXX40 KNHC 261917
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
317 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE SUN- TUE.

A RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWEST TODAY. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE BASIN...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. BEGINNING SUNDAY THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER A WEAK TROPICAL LOW CURRENTLY BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS WILL ORGANIZE BEFORE REACHING THE GULF BASIN...OR IF THE SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY ORGANIZE IF IT DOES REACH THE GULF BASIN. BASED ON THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR PEAK WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 5 FT. ANY CHANGES TO THE ORGANIZATION OR POTENTIAL FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE SUNDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF NEXT EARLY NEXT WEEK.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOWER PRESSURE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IS KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO A TYPICAL PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA HIGH IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST- CENTRAL ATLANTIC MON AND TUE WHICH WILL BRING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELL GENERATED BY GASTON IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 18N E OF 57W THROUGH THIS EVENING.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MID WEEK.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT AND A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 65W THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH GASTON WILL REACH FORECAST WATERS BETWEEN 55-60W TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS INCREASED TODAY WITH THIS LOW...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH THIS SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE BEFORE REACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS OR SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND SUNDAY. SCATTEROMETER DATA TODAY SHOWED SE WINDS UP TO 30 KT ON THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...MADE AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF WINDS AND CORRESPONDING SEAS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS WEST TO NORTHWEST. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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