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AGXX40 KNHC 190759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
359 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TROUGH.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA AS A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA SW TO NEAR 24N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF...AND ELSEWHERE N OF 23N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. LATEST OFFSHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND PLATFORMS ARE REPORTING E-SE 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OF 5-10 KT IN THE FAR NE PORTION...AND S-SW TO VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT IN THE FAR SE PORTION INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ARE LOW THROUGHOUT... IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 1 FT OR LESS SEAS IN THE FAR NE PORTION.

THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOSE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS ONES. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOME MORE ACROSS THE SE GULF THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK N TO THE CENTRAL GULF SAT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF AND LOW PRES FORMS TO THE E OF FLORIDA. MOISTURE PROGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN THERE INTO MON BEFORE DRYING OUT WITH THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE N. EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ELY WINDS N OF THE TROUGH THROUGH SAT EVENING AS THE GRADEINT TIGHTENS WITH STRONGER HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED WEAK RIDGING N OF AREA CONTINUES TO RESULT IN ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH SEA HEIGHTS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 2-3 FT ELSEWHERE E OF 81W. SEAS W OF 81W ARE LOWER...IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE PER LATEST AVAILABLE ALTIMETER DATA AND BUOY REPORTS. THE WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NE-E TRADES AT 10-20 KT WILL PREVAIL IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER AT NIGHT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...4-6 FT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE WITH THE LOWEST OF THIS RANGE CONFINED TO THE NW PORTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS IT SIGNATURE AT THE SURFACE BECOMES RATHER SUBTLE. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY E OF THE AREA ALONG 46W/47W S OF 19N WITH WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE WAVE AT 15N46W WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY ON SAT...AND CONTINUE ACROSS THOSE WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AND SUN NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. NE TO E TRADES OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...EXCEPT GFS/ECMWF BLEND NW PORTION THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE NW PORTION THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N74W TO SOUTH FLORIDA...WHILE A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR 30N W OF 78W. A RIDGE EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 26N E OF THE BAHAMAS. LATEST BUOY...SHIP AND ASCAT DATA SHOW MAINLY GENTLE E-SE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE...AND S-SW GENTLE TO FRESH WINDS N OF THE RIDGE. GENTLE S-SW WINDS ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 3-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH...AND ALSO ELSEWHERE N OF 25N W OF 73W. THE TROUGH WILL STALL FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NW FRI NIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OVER THE SE U.S. AND SWING SEWD ACROSS THE NW PORTION SAT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD HELP SPIN UP A LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SAT TO THE E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN FORWARD MOTION TIMINIG OF THE LOW...AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE UKMET BUT SIMILAR TO THE NAVGEM MODEL GUIDANCE IN TAKING THE LOW NEWD TO N OF THE AREA EARLY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF AT THAT TIME HAS THE LOW FARTHER S NEAR 29N78W. FOR THE NDFD GRIDS...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH SAT NIGHT FOR THE THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT E OF THE LOW DURING SAT AND INTO SAT NIGHT AS ATLC RIDGING TO ITS E BUILDS WSW WHILE STRENGTHENING SOME. THESE WINDS MAY BE HIGHER PENDING ACTUAL INTENSITY OF LOW AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO ITS E. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT NEAR AND E OF THE LOW. ONCE THE LOW LIFTS N OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT...A TRAILING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED WITH 5-15 KT RETURN FLOW AND 3-5 FT SEAS EXPECTED...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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