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AGXX40 KNHC 241752
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
152 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge continues from the W Atlc along 28-29N and across central FL to the offshore waters of central TX. Morning obs showed seas 1-2 ft above guidance across the TX coastal waters with buoys 5-6 ft generated from fresh Sly flow overnight. Elsewhere anticyclonic flow around the ridge was producing 3-4 ft seas SW portions and 1-3 ft E half. N extent of a tropical wave is moving across the far SW Gulf and has enhanced and maintained nocturnal cnvtn from Yucatan thermal trough of yesterdays cycle. This cnvtn will shift NW and inland from Veracruz to NE Mexico, with wind and seas likely to be slightly higher than guidance.

This ridge alignment expected to persist through Tuesday night. The pressure gradient will slacken thereafter as a trough or weak front passes into the NE Gulf. Gentle winds and seas of 2 ft or less will then prevail across the basin by the end of the week as high pres settles across the N central Gulf and W Atlc ridge shifts E into central Atlc.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

Modest pres gradient continues across the basin today with W Atlc ridge centered on 1023 mb high near 29N60W. Low lat Ely wave is moving across S central Carib attm and enhancing trades there per recent scat pass where seas are 7-10 ft. Squalls trail this wave across the SE Carib S of 14.5N where a 25-30 kt llvl jet is present. Seas there 5-6 ft. Next wave also low lat and moving into Windwards attm with associated weather occurring behind wave. ENE winds 15-20 kt depicted N of this wave moving into the islands per recent scat pass where seas are 5-6 ft per 41099 and suggested by 42060. Atlc ridge will build slightly across the basin this afternoon and tonight behind first wave in central Carib to nudge nocturnal wind max off of Colombia to just below gale force per latest GFS runs. GFS briefly shows gales at 30m at 06Z tonight with seas building to 12-13 ft. This broad wind surge will expand westward to near 82W by Tuesday morning in the wake of the departing tropical wave, and then generally remain slightly W of normal max wind location through Wed as next tropical waves moves across S Carib. Atlc ridge to build W into the Bahamas by Fri and bring a return to fresh to strong trades across all but NW portions.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Ridging extends from 1023 mb high pressure near 29N60W to FL coast along about 27.5N. Moderate anticyclonic winds prevail around the outer periphery of the ridge from N of Puerto Rico through the Bahamas, to offshore of the Carolinas, where seas are 3 to 5 ft increasing to 6-8 ft off the Carolinas. A TUTT cell moving slowly NE away from NE FL coastal waters with TUTT axis SW across N central FL is combining with ample lingering moisture to produce very active cnvtn across the NW waters that should linger through tonight. Leading edge of moisture and associated llvl wind surge with wave energy passing N of NE Carib past 36 hrs now blowing up just to the SE of the TUTT related cnvtn and will shift N into the evening.

A trough will then move in from the E-SE through mid- week, weakening the ridge with the parent high lifting N of the area. This will allow for a weakened pressure gradient with winds diminishing, and seas subsiding slightly through Thursday. A frontal system is forecast to move through the SE United States by the end of the week which will increase the pressure gradient, especially across NW portions where winds will increase to fresh Friday night.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.

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