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AGXX40 KNHC 280546
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
146 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT RIDGE EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF TEXAS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG ROUGHLY 26N/27N. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TUE AND WED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUE THEN STALLS AND DISSIPATES THROUGH WED. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND OFFICIAL FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND DAY 4 FOR TROPICAL N ATLANTIC.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W-NW 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB ALONG 80W THIS EVENING WILL REACH CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN MON. STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE E CENTRAL ATLC IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC BY MID WEEK AND HAS POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG 28N WILL MEANDER A LITTLE TODAY THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 26N MON IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS. ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA N OF 28N OFF NE FLORIDA LATE MON. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 KT MON NIGHT. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH WED...BUT MAY SERVE AS FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER GULF STREAM BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE THU. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF HAITI.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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