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AGXX40 KNHC 051715
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH GFS AND ECMWF WIND AND WAVE GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...THE WESTERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH FRI NIGHT. AS A RESULT EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT VARY MUCH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MODERATE E TO SE TRADES WILL PREVAIL S OF 26N AND GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NW GULF. MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW COAST OF YUCATAN EACH NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATING IN THE SW GULF DURING THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE FRESH EASTERLY WINDS CLOSE TO THE TROUGH AXIS EACH NIGHT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH GFS AND ECMWF WIND AND WAVE GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A PERSISTENT RIDGE N OF THE AREA ALIGNED ALONG 30N AND LOW PRES ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU...WITH MINIMAL GALES ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MON. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MON AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES 60W. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TUE THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. WHILE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIGNIFICANT IN THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY STARTING MON AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS IN EXCESS OF 15 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DOES NOT APPEAR IN THE OFFING AFTER MON MORNING.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC TODAY WILL REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE AND MOVE W OF 85W WED NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON...MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE TUE AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THU.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH GFS AND ECMWF WIND AND WAVE GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERSISTENT RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 30N WILL SUPPORT LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALLOW MODERATE E TO SE TRADES S OF 27N AND GENTLE SE TO S WINDS N OF 27N TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING NE OF THE AREA MON AND TUE WILL SHIFT THE HIGH WESTWARD TUE THROUGH THU. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. BOTH MODELS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...WITH THE AREA OF HIGHER WINDS SHRINKING CLOSER TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON NIGHT THROUGH THU AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...GALE WARNING TONIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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