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AGXX40 KNHC 240639
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
239 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS...AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE OVER THE NW WATERS...4-5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 2-3 FT OVER THE NE WATERS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SW GULF AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN AND MOVE WESTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF EACH MORNING. A LOCALLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN WINDS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA WITH WITH SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 PLENITUDE WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 10-12 FT RANGE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...7-9 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...6-8 FT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 6-8 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT IS SUPPORTING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON. AFTERWARDS...A TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST TOWARD THE SW N ATLC WATERS WHICH WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASE THE TRADEWIND FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS N OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N65W TO NEAR 27N79W. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE OVER THE WATERS N OF 30 AND W OF THE FRONT...3-4 FT ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP E OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA MIDWEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 9 FT OVER THE NE WATERS AS THE TROUGH REACHES THE FORECAST AREA MIDWEEK.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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