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AGXX40 KNHC 051800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND WW3 MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WELL SE OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR IS POISED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF. SURFACE OBS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE NW-LY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND MAX SEAS ARE 5-6 FT BASED ON BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NW GULF TONIGHT THEN SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FRI THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW S-SE FLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE W GULF THIS WEEKEND...WITH S-LY WINDS SPREADING EASTWARD SUN AND MON AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS SUN NIGHT THEN LIFTING N-NE MON WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT AND INCREASE S WINDS IN THE NW GULF MON AND MON NIGHT. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND WW3 MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEARLY STATIONARY. SURFACE OBS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS E OF THE FRONT AND MODERATE N-NW WINDS W OF THE FRONT...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT BASED ON BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA. THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG LATE-SEASON FRONT WILL RETAIN ITS IDENTITY A FEW MORE DAYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIB AND EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO PANAMA BY LATE SAT NIGHT THEN FINALLY STALL AND WEAKEN BETWEEN 75W-80W ON SUN. WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN-TUE AND GENTLE-MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND WW3 MODELS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SLOW-MOVING LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES N OF AREA NEAR 34N72W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE FRONT. A GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 2 PM EDT 18Z. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N67W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FRI AND FROM 29N65W TO HAITI SAT...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN OVER SE WATERS SUN. STRONG SW WINDS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST OF THE FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO ATLC WATERS SUN THROUGH MON WITH A RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALONG 29N/30N MON AND TUE. SECONDARY FRONT OF COOLER AIR WILL PUSH OFF NE FLORIDA INTO NW WATERS LATE TONIGHT THEN WILL EITHER MERGE WITH THE PRIMARY FRONT OR BECOME DIFFUSE AND INDISTINCT BY FRI NIGHT. MODELS ARE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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