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AGXX40 KNHC 290618
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
218 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1018 MB IS LOCATED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W WITH AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE FLOW DOMINATES THE BASIN AROUND THE RIDGING...EXCEPT NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO FRESH AHEAD OF DIURNAL TROUGHING WHICH IS SHIFTING W INTO THE SW GULF WATERS. WEAK FRONTAL TROUGHING MAY OCCASIONALLY BRUSH THE NE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE HIGH REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY...AND WITH THE YUCATAN DIURNAL TROUGHING DEVELOPING EACH EVENING.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL EXIT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH TODAY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY POKING INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM ACROSS EASTERN VENEZUELA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT W THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE AXIS REMAINING OVER LAND.

A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE DISRUPTED BY T.S. BONNIE WELL N OF THE AREA...AND WITH LOW PRESSURE NORMALLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA DISPLACED TO THE NW AND WEAKER. AS A RESULT...MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN TIGHTEN WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING REBUILDS N OF THE AREA...AND WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DEEPENING SLIGHTLY. TRADES WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THIS OCCURS.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. SEAS CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT WILL BUILD TO 6-9 FT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS TRADES NE-E OF THE AREA INCREASE DUE TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS OF 2 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM BONNIE AT 1008 MB HAS TAKEN A NORTHWARD MOTION AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 79.4W...OR ABOUT 155 MILES S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS EVEN MORE SHEARED OFF TO THE NW THAN IT WAS EARLIER WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NW-N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS BONNIE PULLS AWAY.

BROAD TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE NW WATERS W OF 77W THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF BONNIE WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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