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AGXX40 KNHC 201920
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
220 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A 15 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE SE GULF...SUPPORTED BY 1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. THE HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...ALLOWING THE WINDS OVER THE SE GULF TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS NEW REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE SE AND E CENTRAL GULF FRI.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE E TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE FRI WITH THE GFS REMAINING THE STRONGER OF THE MODEL INDICATING 20 TO 25 KT WINDS IN A SWATH FROM FROM SW FLORIDA TO S TEXAS. THERE REMAINS DECENT CONSENSUS AMONG THE MAJOR MODELS SHOWING A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT INTO SUN...SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW OF TEXAS SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF LATE SAT INTO SUN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. THE OTHER IMPACTS COULD BE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS RELATED TO THE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE NW GULF WATERS MON AND SWEEPING ACROSS THE THROUGH TUE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW GALE STRENGTH OVER THE VOLATILE SW GULF THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RESULT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A DYING STATIONARY FRONT REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 20N85W. AN EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED STRONG N TO NE WINDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS IS LIKELY DIMINISHING RAPIDLY HOWEVER AND THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE DYING FRONT MODIFIES AND AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS.

ANOTHER ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED STRONG WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY REPEAT TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL START TO CHANGE BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA SUPPORTING STRONG NE TO E WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 20N IN BUOY...SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER DATA. THIS IS PUSHING WEST TOWARD THE ISLANDS AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC. IN ADDITION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST WATERS RELATED TO A SHARP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM 31N63W TO CENTRAL CUBA. EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE DATA INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT N OF 27N. THIS IS RELATED TO 1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N FROM LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL PROMOTE A RESURGENCE OF STRONG E AND SE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN LATE SAT THROUGH LATE SUN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATE SUN INTO MON AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 27N...MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF 22N THROUGH TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY LATE TUE. LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT WITH GFS AND UKMET SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN ECMWF.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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