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AGXX40 KNHC 230530
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO NEAR 23N95W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHILE LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE...ARE MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND 3-6 FT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.

THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ITS INFLUENCE ON WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL DECREASE TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING SE OF THE AREA SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SE RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 4-5 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.

THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS ON SAT WHERE IT WILL LINGER AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD...ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SAT. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND AND WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH MON.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE NW OF THE FRONT...4-5 FT N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT...3-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY SE THROUGH FRI BEFORE STALLING EARLY FRI ROUGHLY ALONG 27N AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT NE AND HELP PUSH THE STALLED FRONT SOUTHWARD TO EXTEND FROM THE NE WATERS TO CENTRAL CUBA BY SAT THEN STALL FROM NEAR 24N65W TO EASTERN CUBA SUN WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAT THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS. WILL FAVOR THE WEAKER LOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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