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AGXX40 KNHC 281424
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1024 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

PRODUCT RELEASED EARLY FOR COMPUTER MAINTENANCE


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NW GULF WILL SHIFT E OVER THE N-CENTRAL WATERS LATE TODAY THEN TURN NE PASSING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT...LEAVING A RIDGE SW FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE NE MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE ON SUN WITH A SURFACE HIGH REDEVELOPING NEAR TAMPA BAY ON MON AFTERNOON. THE HIGH CENTER WILL THEN SHIFT W OVER THE NE GULF WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH WED...THEN SHIFT NE OF THE AREA ON WED NIGHT LEAVING A RIDGE E TO W ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 26N. THUS...5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE NE GULF BEGINNING ON SUN. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NW GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ON SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY CONDITIONS THROUGH THEN PERIOD.

CURRENTLY N-NE WINDS ARE AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE N APPROACH TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INCREASING THE NE FLOW TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 25N E OF 92W ON SUN EVENING...EXCEPT NE-E 20-25 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NE APPROACH TO THE YUCATAN PASSAGE. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON WITH 10-15 KT EASTERLIES SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF 20-25 KT NE FLOW ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL RESUME AGAIN ON SUN EVENING. THESE NE-E PULSES WILL PROPAGATE W ACROSS THE SW GULF EACH MORNING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO W GULF OF HONDURAS AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS THAT PRECEDE THE FRONT BY A FEW HUNDRED MILES...ALL DENOTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN..AND NOW EXPECT THIS FRONT TO REACH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO E HONDURAS ON SUN...THEN LOSE IDENTITY FROM HISPANIOLA TO E HONDURAS ON MON TO TUE. NE 15-20 KT WINDS W OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BRIEFLY ON SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL THE GRADUALLY RELAX WITH NE-E 10-15 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK.

FURTHER TO THE S EXPECT THE PERSISTENT ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...TO SUPPORT STRONG 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY SUN WITH THE GRADIENT THEN RELAXING THROUGH TUE. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FRESH TRADES WILL RESUME ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON TUE NIGHT AND SPREAD E ON WED AND THU.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA THIS EVENING...FROM 31N60W TO HAITI ON SUN EVENING AND FROM 26N55W W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MON EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. CURRENTLY NW 20-25 KT FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 15 KT TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 15-25 KT ON SUN IN RESPONSE TO A SECONDARY NORTHERLY SURGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW CURRENTLY AT 20-30 KT N OF 27N WITHIN 600 NM E OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH 15-25 KT WINDS N OF 27N WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

A W TO E RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG 27N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUN. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N ON MON AS A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS NEAR 30N78W. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S AGAIN TO ALONG 27N ON TUE. EXPECT A SW-W 15-25 KT WIND SHIFT TO DEVELOP N OF 29N ON MON NIGHT ALONG ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE ON MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG 30N ON WED AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM THE N.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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