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AGXX40 KNHC 301847
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
247 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR 12Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS 12Z MWW3/TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS...THEN MOVE OVER THE SW GULF WATERS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY BE MODERATE TO FRESH. THE STRONGEST EVENT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 6 OR 7 FT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM 10N TO 22N ALONG 96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SEEN COVERING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GMZ023 ZONE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE GULF TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH WED NIGHT. S OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT MODERATE E-SE RETURN FLOW PRIMARILY OVER THE W-CENTRAL GULF. MODERATE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FL STRAITS EACH DAY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY EVENINGS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR 12Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS 12Z MWW3/TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE W CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH THU.

A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 52W/53W IS ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION FROM 12-17N. BUOY 41040 AT 14.5N53W EARLIER REPORTED SE WINDS OF 25 KT AS THE WAVE AXIS PASSED THROUGH LOCATION. THE WAVE WILL REACH 60W LATE TONIGHT AND 62W BY AROUND 12Z MON...THEN NEAR 71W BY 12Z TUE TO NEAR 80W/81W BY EARLY ON WED. STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL SPREAD W ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 15N E OF THE LEEWARDS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT WNW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ON SUN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E-SE WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA BEGINNING SUN...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE...AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF PULSING STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. COMBINED SEAS WITH THE TRADES WILL PEAK TO 10 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...AND AGAIN ON WED AS LARGE FETCH BEHIND AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ALLOWS FOR SEAS TO BUILD BACK TO 10 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR 12Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH WED...THEN USED A GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED 12Z MWW3/TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH WED...THEN CONSENSUS OF MODELS WITH SMALL RATIO OF TAFB NWPS OUTPUT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS W INTO THE AREA FROM 29N55W TO 28N78W. THE GRADIENT S OF THIS RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVE W ACROSS THE WATERS FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS BEGINNING TONIGHT S OF 21N E OF 58W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W-NW ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 24N BETWEEN 63-75W BY SUN EVENING AND TO S OF 24N W OF 70W BY MON EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUE ALONG WITH SEAS SUBSIDING.

FRESH E-SE FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE FRESH TO STRONG ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH WED NIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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