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000
AGXX40 KNHC 091851
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
151 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence then
medium confidence next week.

A cold front reaches from the Straits of Florida to 18.5N94W to
just east of Coatzacoalcos Mexico. A scatterometer pass from 1540
UTC indicated a large area of gale force winds along the coasts of
Tamaulipas and Veracruz. Strong north to northeast winds are noted
elsewhere west of 90W. Seas are estimated to be near 20 ft off the
coast of Veracruz where the strongest winds are. Fresh northeast
winds persist elsewhere with 6 to 9 ft seas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted over the southwest Gulf to the north of
the frontal boundary.

The gale force winds will persist through early Saturday off
Veracruz then gradually diminish as well winds and seas across the
basin through late Sunday as strong high pressure north of the
front continues to move east. The front will become stationary
from northwest Cuba across the Yucatan Channel to northeast
Yucatan peninsula into early next week. The subtropical ridge
settles along roughly 26N/27N early to mid next week. The global
models are still showing some uncertainty with the timing of the arrival
of the next front, although a consensus between them indicates a
moderate cold front will move off the Texas coast late Wednesday
night into early Thursday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

Fresh to strong trade winds and scattered showers and
thunderstorms follow a surface trough/tropical wave reaching from
Haiti to northeast Colombia, moving westward into the southwest
Caribbean. Strong high pressure building north of the area behind
a cold front stalling over the Yucatan Channel through Sunday will
support a broad area of fresh to strong trade winds over mainly
the central and southwest Caribbean through early next week. The
strongest winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia during
overnight hours. Strong winds will push through the Windward
Passage tonight and Saturday night. Seas will reach up to 12 ft
over portions of the southwest Caribbean from Saturday into
Monday. Expect fresh to strong trades east of the Windward Islands
by Sunday as the high pressure shifts east into the central
Atlantic, spreading into the waters east of the Leeward Islands
through mid week.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A cold front reaching from near Bermuda to southeast Florida will
push south and stall along roughly 23N by late Saturday. Strong
winds will follow over the northern Bahamas later today behind the
front with 8 ft seas. The high pressure behind the front will
shift east into the central Atlantic through early next week,
supporting strong trades and 9 ft seas east of the northern and
central Bahamas Sunday before winds veer southeast and diminish
into Monday as the ridge shifts to the northeast of the region.
Strong trades will develop near the approaches to the Windward
Passage and north of Puerto Rico by Monday, before winds and seas
diminish overall Tuesday through mid week. A weak front may
approach the waters off northeast Florida by late Wednesday.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
Gale Warning today.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
Gale Warning today into Sat.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.

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