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AGXX40 KNHC 270612
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
212 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT...AND DISSIPATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF THURSDAY AND WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE WESTERN GULF TROUGH WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF...EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU...THEN LOW THEREAFTER.



A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY AND CROSS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BY FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TRADES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY JUST NORTH OF THE COLOMBIA COAST TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG 52W WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS 55W AND OVER OUR TROPICAL ATLANTIC ZONES LATER THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WEDNESDAY...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND REACHING THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TONIGHT AND FOLLOWING MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REST OF THE SYSTEM BY FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM BEYOND FRIDAY...THEREFORE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITION WORDING WITHIN THE HIGH SEAS AND OTHER FORECAST PRODUCTS...ONCE ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED BY THE NHC.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT TODAY AND LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OFFSHORE GEORGIA WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS OVER SE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA...THEN INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. WEAK RIDGING AND GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH SATURDAY.


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W... GALE WARNING WED NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... GALE WARNING WED INTO WED NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
.AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W... GALE WARNING WED.
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE WARNING WED NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ035...OFFSHORE WATERS WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO... GALE WARNING WED INTO WED NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
.AMZ037...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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