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AGXX40 KNHC 010639
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
239 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH THE GFS. MWW3 AND TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT THROUGH FRI. THE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO NEAR TAMPA BAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NE AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE N CENTRAL GULF WED AND THE NE GULF THU. A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS AND THE GEFS DO NOT SHOW WINDS INCREASING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL EARLY SAT MORNING. THE FASTER 00Z GFS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE GEFS AND EC ENS MEANS...WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER. THE GFS SHOWS GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS AND MWW3/NWPS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST.




...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE RIDGE INVOF 22N IS INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WHICH IS DRIVING THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEEN IN THE 0222Z ASCAT-B PASS. THE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND GRADUALLY SHIFT W THROUGH FRI MORNING. AFTERWARD...INCREASED TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST WINDS BACK S AND E OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE GFS APPEARS REASONABLE WITH WINDS HERE AND WITH THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES DRIVING THEM.




...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH THE GFS. MWW3 AND TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

BY EARLY FRI MORNING...THE 12Z/30 ECMWF BECOMES AN OUTLIER BOTH WITH THE H5 LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLC AND THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. OVER THE ATLC...IT CARRIES A MORE NLY LOW WELL N OF THE AREA TO THE S OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THAN THE 00Z MODELS. THE ECMWF ENS MEAN IS MORE SLY WITH THE LOW...HEDGING CLOSER TO THE 00Z GFS AND THE GEFS MEAN. THE ECMWF ALSO ALLOWS MORE ENERGY TO MOVE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST ON FRI THAN THE OTHER MODELS. ITS SOLUTION APPEARS TO WEAK AND STRUNG OUT. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND SCATTEROMETER WINDS...THINK A STRONGER SOLUTION IS BETTER. THE GFS IS ON THE DEEPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LIKELY HAS SOME GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES THAT ARE ENHANCING THE WIND. BLENDING THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH THE GENERAL STRUCTURE OF THE PATTERN...WITH THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION APPEARS REASONABLE. SOME MANUAL EDITS WERE REQUIRED EARLY IN THE FORECAST ALONG 70W N OF 27N WHERE THE 0226Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SWATH OF WIND ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF 65W BY THU MORNING AND E OF 55W BY FRI MORNING.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST SAT MORNING. AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE GFS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH THIS FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING ADVISORY CONDITIONS COMES BEHIND THE FRONT SAT MORNING. THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS UP TO A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS MEETING CRITERIA N OF 30N W OF 78W. NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A 25 KT WIND BARB IN THE AREA. FOR NOW...BLENDING THE GFS WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT YIELD WINDS THAT MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL HOLD OFF ON FORECASTING A STRONG BREEZE HERE AS A RESULT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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