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AGXX40 KNHC 241706
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
106 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS MOSTLY GFS. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE NE TX COAST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO A POSITION FROM SW FL TO THE TX COASTAL BEND TONIGHT...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A HIGH PRES CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE DURING EACH AFTERNOON AS A N-S ORIENTATED HEAT TROUGH FORMS OVER THE FL PENINSULA.

THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 23N TILL TONIGHT WHEN THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 10-15 KT OFFSHORE THE SE TX COAST...THEN REPEAT AGAIN EACH NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...PERHAPS 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON SAT EVENING-SAT NIGHT. EXPECTING AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP EACH MORNING OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE...SHIFT W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH AFTERNOON...AND THEN LOSE IDENTITY BY THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECTING NE-E 10 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N EXCEPT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS MOSTLY GFS. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE...FORMALLY TD 2...IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ACCOMPANIED BY SCT TSTMS MAINLY ALONG A BELT FROM 14- 18N. THE WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT AND REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUN-MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN...PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUN REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN ON MON. STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF NEAR GALE CONDITIONS MOST EVENINGS OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. MAY SEE THE AFFECTED AREA SHRINK SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W OF THE CARIBBEAN. FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE AREA S OF 17N ON SUN EVENING.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS MOSTLY GFS. MWWS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM 29N55W TO CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY 15-20 KT FLOW EXPECTED N OF THE RIDGE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...THEN MOSTLY 10-15 KT CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUN NIGHT PRODUCING 15-20 KT SW FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EASTERLY TRADES BETWEEN 22N AND THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT EASTERLY TRADES AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT EACH EVENING THROUGH SUN EVENING ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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