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AGXX40 KNHC 261803
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
203 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH GFS-BASED WAVEWATCH3 FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ASCAT IMAGERY AND BUOY REPORTS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT 17Z BUOY 42055 REPORTED 6 FT SEAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE DIURNAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT. THE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO FORM EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG. SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ON SUN AND MON WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE NE GULF AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH GFS-BASED WAVEWATCH3 FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BUOY REPORTS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SHOWED WINDS HAD ALREADY SUBSIDED TO 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS SHOULD QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT AND SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. A LIGHTER WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC UNTIL MON OR TUE...WHEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N IS NO LONGER WEAKENED BY LOW PRES.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS SITUATED OVER VENEZUELA AND THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AT 12Z WITH AN ANALYZED WAVE AXIS NEAR 66W. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVES WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE. MORE SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WAVES WERE LOCATED NEAR 56W AND 42W.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH GFS-BASED WAVEWATCH3 FOR WAVES. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N70W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NNE-SSW THROUGH THE LOW. SCATTEROMETERS ALL MISSED THE WIND FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM SO LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE CLOSELY FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE WITH RESPECT TO THE WIND FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE DOWN SHEAR NE QUADRANT. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO FOLLOWS THIS WIND STRUCTURE. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...TAKING IT TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED THIS MORNING AT 1225Z INDICATED A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF GENESIS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF GENESIS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ANTICIPATED. WENT SEVERAL KNOTS ABOVE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW AND CARRIED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THIS AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT... WHEN THE LOW CROSSES 31N. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH 8 TO 10 FEET ON FRIDAY IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. WEAKER PRES GRADIENT S OF THE LOW WILL KEEP WINDS OVER THE BAHAMAS GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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