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AGXX40 KNHC 231828
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
228 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO 26N87W TO 24N92W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA SHOWED MAINLY FRESH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF ON WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE N WATERS. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE N WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 6 FT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF IN 24-48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT. IN ADDITION... EXPECT MODERATE NE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF YUCATAN DURING THE EVENINGS.

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 84W85W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...AND ACROSS THE SW GULF WED NIGHT INTO THU.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. WINDS ARE LIGHT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG 10N.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA IS WEAK MAINTAINING A LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W WILL EXIT THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH THU NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH SAT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WERE NOTED AHEAD OF WAVE AXIS NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FUNNELING INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 45W WILL ENTER THE EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY ON WED...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THOSE WATERS DURING WED AND WED NIGHT...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU INTO FRI...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT AND SAT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT. THESE TROPICAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACTS ON WINDS AND SEAS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO INLAND NE FLORIDA FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS. A RELATIVELY WEAK RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS PRODUCING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS N OF 25N AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF 25N...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS S 0F 22N. THE BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT SEAS W OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ALSO N OF 27N W OF 77W.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THU AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF NE FLORIDA AND LIFTS N OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THU AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE N AND TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR NLY WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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