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AGXX40 KNHC 290627
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
127 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN...THEN LOW-MEDIUM.

1027 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR AUGUSTA GEORGIA CONTROLS THE WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS REPORTING MAINLY MODERATE RETURN FLOW EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH IN THE SE GULF. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE SE GULF. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF FRESH N-NE WINDS BEHIND IT BY FRI MORNING. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG 26N-27N BY FRI AFTERNOON THEN WILL LIFT BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT BY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS SUN NIGHT INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE GULF BY EARLY MON WITH SEAS 3-5 FT BUILDING QUICKLY TO 6-10 FT. AS THIS FORECAST PERIOD NEARS...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS NEXT FRONT WITH THE GFS SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS AND A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONT. THE ECMWF HOWEVER STALLS THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF BY TUE MORNING WITH WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG IT. GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT YET HEADLINE GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SHEAR LINE REMAINS FROM SOUTHERN HAITI TO WESTERN PANAMA. ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS E OF NICARAGUA WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY 7-9 FT. THE SCATTEROMETER PASSES ALSO SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE 8-10 FT...AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND EASTERN LEE OF CUBA.

THE SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT WITH WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA DIMINISHING. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL EXPAND OUTWARD IN COVERAGE AND WILL PEAK NEAR GALE FORCE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 14 FT BY SUN MORNING AND AGAIN MON MORNING. MEANWHILE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH SEAS OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 8 FT NEAR EASTERN JAMAICA.

OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 5-8 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY SAT. ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE AREA WILL BUILD DOWN TOWARD THE REGION WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG S OF 15N MON AND MON NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT S OF 15N BY MON NIGHT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N61W TO THE N CENTRAL COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS PERSISTENT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 120-240 NM E OF THIS STATIONARY FRONT. A COLD FRONT IS NOT FAR BEHIND EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N64W TO 25N70W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF BOTH THE STATIONARY AND COLD FRONTS N OF 27N WITH FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS N OF 27N W OF THE COLD FRONT TO 70W. ALTIMETER PASSES AND SHIP DATA SAMPLED 7-10 FT SEAS N OF 24N W OF THE FRONTS TO THE BAHAMAS.

THE FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MERGE LATER THIS MORNING AND PUSH E OF 65W WITH THE TAIL END STALLING ALONG 61W IN ZONE AMZ127. HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW WITH THE HIGH CENTER EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE AND REACHING 29N75W BY EARLY FRI MORNING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION FRI AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM 31N72W TO 28N81W. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE SW WINDS WILL OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG TO THE SE-S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND EXTENDING FROM 29N65W TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY SAT MORNING THEN WILL STALL FROM 24N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SAT NIGHT WHILE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A SHEAR LINE.

HIGH PRES WILL OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD DOWN FROM THE NW BY SUN MORNING. THAT HIGH WILL RACE OFF TO THE SE REACHING 29N64W BY SUN EVENING. A POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PORTION SUN NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. THAT NEXT FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM 31N79W TO 29N80W BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH WINDS NEARING GALE FORCE BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND IT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MUCH SLOWER AND KEEPS THE FRONT BACK IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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