Home


000
AGXX40 KNHC 290754
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IN THE SE GULF IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS THEN TURN NORTHWARD AND RECURVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THU AND FRI AS A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE TO NO ORGANIZATION TO THIS SYSTEM...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE EQUATION. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL SPREAD FROM THE STRAITS OF FL TO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND THEN ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NE GULF WATERS WED THROUGH FRI.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HURRICANE WARNING GASTON NE OF THE AREA IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC IS KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN. AS GASTON MOVES N AND RECURVES...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE WEST- CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 24N. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. BY EARLY TUE...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PERSISTING INTO THU. MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WATERS S OF 31N AS IT MOVES NW THEN N EAST OF THE CAROLINAS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO CROSS N FLORIDA LATE THU AND MOVE INTO NW WATERS NEAR JACKSONVILLE FRI. STRONG SE-S WINDS WILL IMPACT THE THE NW WATERS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8-9 FT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL STORM BY THAT TIME.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Home