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AGXX40 KNHC 191838
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
238 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND WED. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE NW GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER APPEARING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. VARIABLE 5-10 KT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE N-CENTRAL...AND NE GULF...WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SE-S 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL WINDS OVER THE W-CENTRAL AND NW WATERS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT SLY RETURN FLOW AT 15-20 KT EXPECTED ON WED NIGHT.

S OF 23N...EXPECT THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF 15-20 KT NE WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD... EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ON WED EVENING BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE. THESE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD W ALONG 22N OR 23N GRADUALLY BECOMING E TO SE LATE WED NIGHT...AND DIMINISHING TO SE AT 20 KT NEAR 22N94W BY SUNRISE THU. THIS EVENING EVENT WILL SET UP AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING EACH MORNING...AND LOSE IDENTITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...EXCEPT GFS/ECMWF BLEND DAYS 4 AND 5. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE DAYS 3-5 WITH ATLC TROPICAL WAVES

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. ANOTHER N WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL BE CARRIED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH WED...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON THU...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON FRI AND SAT AND THE EASTERN PART OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUN. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE FORECAST WATERS ALONG 42W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN PART OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON THU AND THE LESSER ANTILLES AND FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY ON FRI. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BE ATTENDED BY LOW PRES WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST WATERS. THE NHC/WPC MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST POINTS WILL BE INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST OF THIS WAVE/LOW PRES SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASING OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
...AND THEN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS LATER THIS WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE GRIDS AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION.

FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE MAXIMUM AFFECTED AREA OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY PATCHES OF 20-25 KT TRADES OVER THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...EXCEPT INCREASING TO STRONG THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON WED EVENING.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...EXCEPT GFS/ECMWF BLEND DAYS 4 AND 5. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH MORE WEIGHT APPLIED TO THE NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 3...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RELATIVELY WEEK RIDGE STRETCHING E TO W NEAR 27N. THIS RIDGE WILL PERSIST NEAR 27N WHILE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY N AND S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTING E AND W ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE E OF 66W. A WEAK TROUGH WILL ENTER THE AREA AND STALL FROM 31N78W TO 28N80W TODAY...WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST SW- WSW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING SW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS N OF THE RIDGE THROUGH FRI. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME EARLY SAT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH DIPS INTO THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS PRECEDED BY SW 15-20 KT N OF ABOUT 29N...AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT WITH LIGHT NW 5-10 KT WINDS.

EASTERLY TRADES FROM THE RIDGE AXIS S TO ALONG 22N ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 5-10 KT. TO THE S OF 22N MODERATE 10-15 KT TRADES ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... WITH EVENING SURGES TO 20-25 KT BEGINNING ON THU EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND FROM EASTERN CUBA TO HISPANIOLA COULD POSSIBLY INCREASE TO HIGHER LEVELS THAN FORECASTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK PENDING EVOLUTION OF CURRENT ATLC TROPICAL WAVES AND POSSIBLE NEAR FUTURE LOW PRES SYSTEMS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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