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000
AGXX40 KNHC 021853
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
153 PM EST FRI DEC 2 2016

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence.

A stationary front extends across the basin from Key West Florida
to the NW Gulf. Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong easterly
winds north of 24N west of 90W. The front will gradually lift
northward and transition to a warm front in the NW gulf this
weekend. The pressure gradient between the front and high pressure
over the SE CONUS will support fresh to strong E-SE winds across
the northern Gulf waters through Saturday, with moderate to fresh
SE-S winds across most of the Gulf region Sunday. Low pressure is
expected to develop Sunday along the frontal boundary in southern
Texas, then drift northward along the Texas coast through Monday
night. GFS model guidance shows the low dragging a cold front
across the Gulf waters Monday through Tuesday night, then stalling
and weakening over the southern Gulf Wednesday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A surface trough over the eastern Caribbean extends from the Mona
Passage to the ABC Islands. Scatterometer data shows moderate to
fresh trade winds east of the trough axis. The trough will move
slowly westward across the basin and weaken into Saturday night.
High pressure northeast of the area will support moderate to fresh
trade winds across the eastern half of the Caribbean and tropical
Atlantic zones. SE winds are expected to strengthen a bit Monday
in the NW Caribbean including the Yucatan Channel, as an area of
low pressure develops in the Gulf of Mexico near the Texas coast,
tightening the pressure gradient west of Cuba.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence.

A cold front associated with a deepening low pressure system north
of the area extends from 31N72W to 26N80W. It will reach from
29N65W to the straits of Florida Saturday, then become stationary
from 25N65W to 24N80W Sunday. Gentle to moderate northerly winds
and 4-5 ft seas are expected behind the front, while moderate to
fresh SW winds are likely ahead of the front over NE waters, with
max seas to 6-7 ft. The strong low pressure system will generate
large swell, which will sweep into the central Atlantic Sunday
through Tuesday, with max seas building to 9-10 ft over far NE
waters by early Sunday. GFS model brings another cold front off
the Florida coast Tuesday, reaching from 31N72W to Miami Florida
Wednesday.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.

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