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AGXX40 KNHC 071813
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
113 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

A CHILLY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE BASIN AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. FRESH TO STRONG FLOW IN THE E GULF WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH DRIFTS SE INTO THE NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING NW SWELLS IN THE E GULF WILL ALSO SUBSIDE. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP S ACROSS THE BASIN MON THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH A NEW BATCH OF FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW ARRIVING BEHIND IT...EXCEPT UP TO GALE FORCE IN THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF. SEAS WILL BUILD BACK UP TO 8-13 FT AS A RESULT OF THESE INCREASING WINDS. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE FROM W TO E TUE THROUGH WED AS NEW HIGH PRES OVER TEXAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS SE INTO THE NW GULF TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THIS HIGH CENTER SHIFTS TO THE CENTRAL PORTION BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...THEN OFF TO THE NE OVER SE GEORGIA BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...EXCEPT IN THE SE PORTION WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E FLOW WILL PREVAIL.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

A REINVIGORATED COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NE NICARAGUA WILL REACH AND STALL FROM HISPANIOLA TO NE COSTA RICA BY ON MON. FRESH TO STRONG NW-N FLOW FOLLOWS THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA MON THROUGH TUE AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT COVERS THE BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK LIGHTING UP THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND AREA DOWNSTREAM TO 20-30 KT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALSO WILL COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF CENTRAL CUBA. MEANWHILE...FRESH TO STRONG NE-E FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE SE AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGING AND LOWER PRES OVER NORTHERN S AMERICA. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN AS WELL...AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE JUST NW OF COLOMBIA THU NIGHT AND YET AGAIN ON FRI NIGHT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NE OF FLORIDA...NOW MOVING N OF 31N. THIS LOW IS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT IN ITS WAKE CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO GALE FORCE N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT AND NOW N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER TO STORM FORCE N OF 29N E OF 77W BY THIS EVENING. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH EARLY MON HOWEVER VERY LARGE SEAS...AROUND 30 FT ALONG 31N WILL PROPAGATE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE BASIN. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BRIEFLY FROM W TO E MON...HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS FORECAST N OF 27N BY MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT DIVES INTO THE AREA. THAT NEXT FRONT WILL SHIFT E OF THE BASIN THU THROUGH THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES OVER THE SE U.S. BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING MON NIGHT INTO TUE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GALE WARNING MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY. STORM WARNING TONIGHT. GALE WARNING MON INTO TUE NIGHT.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... STORM WARNING TONIGHT. GALE WARNING MON INTO TUE. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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