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AGXX40 KNHC 271740
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE.

REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH DISSECTS THE GULF FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE TX COASTAL BEND...WITH A BROAD LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 27N94W ESTIMATED AT 1010 MB. THE GRADIENT SUPPORTED NE-E 15-20 KT FLOW ACROSS THE NW WATERS BETWEEN 87W AND THE TROUGH THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING...AND E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS EVERYWHERE ELSE TO THE NE OF THE THE TROUGH. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS AFTERNOON WITH 10-15 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED NE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH THU EVENING WHEN THE TROUGH SHOULD COMPLETELY LOSE IDENTITY. MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SW OF THE TROUGH...BECOMING E-SE 5-10 KT THU NIGHT. THE NORMAL EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF 15-20 KT NE WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO RESUME FRI EVENING. THIS WILL SET UP AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE AT NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH MORNING...AND LOSE IDENTITY EACH AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ON MON WHEN THE GUIDANCE IS AGREEING ON LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...LIKELY TRIGGERED BY A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... ENHANCING THE SUN NIGHT NOCTURNAL TROUGH. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NW ON TUE TO NEAR 22.5N96W AND NEAR 23N98.5W ON WED.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE.

EASTERLY TRADES ARE GRADUALLY RE-BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN EXCEPT TO THE W OF 80W WHERE LIGHT SLY FLOW IS STILL OBSERVED THIS MORNING. EXPECTING NORMAL SE TRADES TO RETURN TO THE YUCATAN BASIN BY LATE TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THU...AND THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION ON FRI THROUGH SUN...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM E OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER...EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON SUN EVENING.

A SECOND WAVE ALONG 55W THIS MORNING WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND THU...THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND...AND MOVING W OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ENHANCED TO 20-25 KT/SEAS 7-8 FT N OF 14N WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH TO 15 KT. GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED THE SUGGESTION OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS WAVE SO IT IS CARRIED AS AN OPEN TROUGH IN THE OFFICIAL GRIDS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. BLEND OF MWW3 AND NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE.

CENTER OF HRCN CRISTOBAL HAS SHIFTED N OF 31N WITH THE ASSOCIATED SW FLOW OF 2O KT OR GREATER FORECAST TO SHIFT N OF 31N ON THU EVENING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM 30N55W TO 27N65W TO 27N80W TONIGHT...BUT QUICKLY RE-ORIENT FROM 27N65W TO 31N76W ON THU NIGHT AS CRISTOBAL ACCELERATES FURTHER NE. A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE NEAR 27N68W EARLY FRI...THEN SHIFT NW TO BEYOND 31N ON FRI NIGHT EFFECTIVELY RE-ORIENTATING THE RIDGE FROM NW TO SE FROM 31N74W TO 27N65W TO 27N57W. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 57W WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE ATLC WATERS S OF 23N. GUIDANCE IS NO LONGER AS AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WAVE...BUT EXPECT THE TRADES TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT E OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA ON THU EVENING.

THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 09W TODAY IS FAVORED BY NHC FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 21N46W ON WED.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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