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AGXX40 KNHC 030720
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
320 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ON THE 0000 UTC MAP ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 28N87W. THIS LOW IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GULF...PARTICULARLY N OF 27N E OF 85W BASED ON THE MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE UNITED STATES. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS N FLORIDA AND NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG SW TO W WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER OVER THE NE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATER TODAY AS THE LOW PRES MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE NW DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING LATE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE BEHIND THE TROUGH IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION WITH A 1015 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 25N84W. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT N ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THU.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH WED MORNING. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL GROW AS THE RIDGE BUILDS W OVER THE SW N ATLC EARLY THIS WEEK...THEN EXPAND EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE SHIFTING E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. IN ADDITION...EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE N OF AREA.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 70W IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT AND EXIT THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE WED...REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION AND A LOW PRES AREA LOCATED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE AS THE LOW PRES MOVES NE THROUGH GA AND OFF THE COAST NEAR SAVANNAH. AFTER THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA LATE TUE...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO W WATERS WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS BY LATE WED AND WILL PERSIST ON THU.

ONCE AGAIN...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...PARTICULARLY S OF 21N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W...INCLUDING THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FRESH TRADES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE THE WEAKENED RIDGE DIMINISHES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO ENHANCE WINDS THERE BY TONIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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