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AGXX40 KNHC 061755
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
155 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND WW3 MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK HIGH PRES PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. BUOY OBS AND ASCAT DATA SHOW 10-15 KT WINDS AND 4-5 FT SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. HIGH PRES WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NW GULF TONIGHT THEN SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH MON. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY SAT NIGHT...AND INTENSIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT 20-25 KT WINDS AND 6-7 FT SEAS OVER NW WATERS SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND WW3 MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN TIPS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE FRONT ALONG THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE E COAST OF NICARAGUA. ALTIMETER DATA AT 0735 UTC SHOWED 5 FT SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND ANOTHER ALTIMETER PASS AT 0840 UTC SHOWED 6-7 FT SEAS IN CENTRAL CARIB. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN FROM HAITI TO S NICARAGUA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG 20-25 KT NE WINDS S OF CUBA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH SUN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF WIND/WAVE MODELS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. A SECONDARY POST-FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH COOLER AIR IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ASCAT DATA AT 1345 UTC SHOWED STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND A FEW WIND BARBS OF 33-36 KT IN AREAS OF DEEPEST CONVECTION WHICH MAY INDICATE WINDS ARE GUSTING TO GALE FORCE IN HEAVY SHOWERS. GFS AND ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIPLE LOWS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH RAPIDLY MOVE N ALONG THE BOUNDARY TRACKING 30-35 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH IT. DO NOT BELIEVE SUSTAINED GALES ARE PRESENT...NOR IS IT LIKELY SUSTAINED GALES WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH SAT S OF 30N BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. SO WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING A GALE WARNING BASED ON ASCAT DATA ALONE...AND WILL EMPHASIZE STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN CONVECTION IN HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE FCSTS. GFS IS SHOWING MINIMAL GALES NEAR 30N SAT...AND WILL WAIT FOR ECMWF 12Z MODEL RUN RESULTS BEFORE FINAL DECISION ON GALE WARNING OR NOT. OTHERWISE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HIGH PRES SHIFTING EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND WILL FORM A RIDGE ALONG 30N MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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