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AGXX40 KNHC 210551
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
151 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE SW GULF. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND 1-3 FT OVER THE EASTERN GULF.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS WED THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS AND SE OF THE AREA BY SAT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SW GULF THAT IS FORECAST TO TRACK E-NE. THERE IS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TWO FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME THUS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THIS FEATURE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR THIS LOW TO SHIFT ENE INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN INTO THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE WEEKEND.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN....AND 2-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY WED. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL INTERACT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF WATERS. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA AS DISCUSSED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION. THIS WILL CREATE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE CURRENT FORECAST CYCLE FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE FROM THE GULF WATERS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS WEEKEND. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THERE WILL BE A CONVERGENCE OF ENERGY INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM SEVERAL DIFFERENT SOURCES...BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...ENERGY FROM THE LOW...AND ENERGY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS WITH 1-3 FT SEAS W OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS IT GETS LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS BY WED. THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA THU THEN STALL BRIEFLY FRI. A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TO EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N65W TO W CUBA BY SAT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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