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AGXX40 KNHC 250753
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
353 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE PERSISTS IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE S TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY SHIFT NE AND REACH 20 KT IN THE LATE EVENING OFF THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE OUT OF THE EAST. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER NOTED IN VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE...FORMALLY T.D. 2...CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY. THE WAVE WILL SLOW TONIGHT AND SAT AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND SAT...PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SAT...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SUN AND ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO NEAR GALE FORCE MOST EVENINGS OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. MAY SEE THE AFFECTED AREA SHRINK SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W OF THE CARIBBEAN. FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND FORECAST FAVORS GFS SOLUTION TO CAPTURE STRONGER LOCALIZED WINDS OFF COLOMBIA. THERE REMAIN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TROPICAL WAVE POSITIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE POSITIONS REFLECT BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWWUSED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG ROUGHLY 25N TO 27N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW S OF 22N W OF 65W. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 0140 UTC INDICATED WINDS TO 25 KT WERE ALREADY IN PLACE OFF THE N COAST OF HAITI. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A MID/UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE NORTH OF 30N. THE ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 0140 UTC INDICATING MODERATE TO FRESH SW FLOW N OF 30N AHEAD OF A RELATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS THE WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NE. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS ADVERTISED BY LATE MONDAY...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE IN AMZ111 NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 77W.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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