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AGXX40 KNHC 261916
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
216 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR FORT MYERS IN SW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH AN AREA OF 8-11 FT SEAS OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WERE PREVIOUSLY NOTED. SW WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE OBSERVED SE OF THE FRONT BASED ON SURFACE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA.

THE FRONT IS CONNECTED TO A DEEP LOW PRES AREA CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR CAPE HATTERAS. IT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SE ACROSS THE SE GULF THE REST OF TODAY...THEN STALL ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SATURDAY. HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF UNITED STATES WILL SUPPORT THE PUSH OF A REINFORCING FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT...THAT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT MAINLY N OF 25N AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-9 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NW GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ON MONDAY. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS N OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALLOW TRADES TO INCREASE FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WEAKENS AND STRONGER RIDGING BUILDS FARTHER WEST OVER THE CAROLINAS...WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL...SW AND NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS PERSISTENT TRADE WIND FLOW... EXPECT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FRI THROUGH SUN. WITH THE MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN AROUND 90 NM OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 12-13 FT BY FRI NIGHT...AND OF 13-15 FT BY SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF ZONES AMZ111 AND AMZ113 IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP LOW PRES AREA CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FORECAST REGION THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE N WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT...AND FROM 31N67W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT...THEN STALL ALONG 27N AND LIFT NORTHWARD SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SUN. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN STRONG EASTERLY WINDS SAT AND SUN...DIMINISHING MON AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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