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AGXX40 KNHC 291851
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
251 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE MOUTH OF MOBILE BAY WITH AN E TO W RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 30N ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. SEAS ARE STILL UP AT 4-5 FT ACROSS SW PORTIONS FROM LAST NIGHTS PASSAGE OF YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH...DESPITE ONLY MODERATE E TO SE WINDS THERE. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE MAINLY E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SEAS 2-4 FT W OF 90W AND 1-2 FT MOST OF AREA E OF 90W. WEAK FRONTAL TROUGHING MAY OCCASIONALLY BRUSH THE NE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE HIGH MEANDERING ABOUT THE N CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND THE YUCATAN DIURNAL TROUGHING DEVELOPING EACH LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

SHARP NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES FROM ERN U.S. ACROSS FLORIDA AND THEN BROADLY ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CARIB. GOOD LLVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH N PORTIONS OF TWO AEW MOVING ACROSS BASIN CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH FOR CLUSTERS OF DEEP CNVTN ACROSS THE N CENTRAL...AND THE NE CARIB. OVERNIGHT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE SE CARIB BEHIND SECOND AEW PRODUCING SUFFICIENT WINDS TO KICK UP DECENT AREA OF 8 FT SEAS PER 09Z ALTIMETER DATA. 42059 HAS FINALLY DROPPED FROM 7 FT ALL MORNING TO 5 FT ATTM AS WINDS HAS SUBSIDED TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADES E AND CENTRAL PORTIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE E TRADES W PORTIONS. CNVTN LOOKS TO BE INCREASING ATTM ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF PANAMA...AND FARTHER N ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THIS WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE DISRUPTED LLVL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...AND WITH LOW PRESSURE NORMALLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA DISPLACED TO THE NW AND WEAKER. AS A RESULT...MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN TIGHTEN WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING REBUILDS N OF THE AREA...AND WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DEEPENING SLIGHTLY. TRADES WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THIS OCCURS.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. SEAS CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT WILL BUILD TO 6-9 FT MON THROUGH WED UPSTREAM TRADES NE OF THE AREA INCREASE DUE TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE. LONG WAVE AEW TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED WITH RIDGING AND STRONG SAL BEHIND IT FOR END OF WEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

T.D. BONNIE HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS SC TODAY AND APPEARS TO BE BECOMING NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH UPPER VORT...AND VERY GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE NOW YIELDING IMPROVED CNVTN NEAR THE CENTER. LOW HAS TAKEN A MORE WLY JOG PAST FEW HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF S SIDE OF CIRCULATION AND ACROSS N FLORIDA AND YIELD FOCUS OF CNVTN IN NEXT FEW HOURS. NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACTIVE WHERE LLVL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN IT AND RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE E UPPER TROUGH INDUCED LLVL WEAKNESSES. MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS 6-7 FT E OF 75W WHERE THIS CONVERGENCE WAS OCCURRING AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NW AND WEAKEN NEXT FEW DAYS AND BONNIE REMNANTS EVENTUALLY LIFT OUT OF REGION.

THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ESE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE TROUGHING ACROSS BAHAMAS INDUCED BY UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY W AND WEAKENS BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER 48 HOURS. RIDGE TO FINALLY BUILD SW AND W INTO AREA LATE TUE AND WED AND THIS TROUGH DISSIPATES...BUT LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR STRONG RIDGING INTO FLORIDA AND WRN WATERS...AND MAINLY SE AND W WATERS TO SEE FRESHENING SE WINDS TUE-WED. REORGANIZING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NW CARIB THU TO SHIFT E ACROSS N CENTRAL CARIB BY FRI AND CARVE ANOTHER LLVL WEAKNESS FROM BAHAMAS S INTO N CENTRAL CARIB AND HOLD RIDGE TO THE E OF 70W LATE THU THROUGH FRI.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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