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AGXX40 KNHC 280602
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
202 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO JUST NORTH OF VERACRUZ WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING. LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS AND MEXICO COASTS THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND WILL REMAIN THERE INTO TONIGHT SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF EAST OF THE WESTERN GULF TROUGH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS N OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...THEN LOW AFTERWARDS.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGING AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E TO NE WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE COLOMBIA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW CURRENTLY CROSSING INTO OUR TROPICAL ATLANTIC ZONES ALONG 55W WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY. GALE WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 13N. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY...CROSSING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY...WHILE INTENSIFYING. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPS WINDS BELOW STORM FORCE ALONG THE SYSTEMS PATH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST WOULD LIKELY CHANGE ONCE NHC BEGINS ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM. THE TRACK BECOMES UNCERTAIN BEYOND FRIDAY AS GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO HANDLE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...GULF OF MEXICO...SW N ATLC...AND THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT ON THEIR SOLUTIONS OF THIS PATTERN AND THEREFORE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY IS LOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE FOLLOWS A MODEL BLEND THAT TURNS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG 75W ON SATURDAY...REACHING WESTERN CUBA ON MONDAY. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITION WORDING WITHIN THE OFFSHORES AND OTHER FORECAST PRODUCTS ONCE ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED BY THE NHC.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW AFTERWARDS.

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NORTHWARD WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER SE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A STRONG TROPICAL LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT DIVERGE AFTERWARDS. AS A RESULT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA...CUBA...WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ013...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
.AMZ015...CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
.AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI INTO SUN NIGHT.
.AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W... GALE WARNING WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... GALE WARNING WED INTO THU.
.AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED.
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI INTO SUN.
.AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE WARNING WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ035...OFFSHORE WATERS WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO... GALE WARNING WED INTO THU.
.AMZ037...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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