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AGXX40 KNHC 151711
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
111 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A N TO S ORIENTATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N92W TO 18N95W AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD STALLING ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST LATE TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A NE-E-SE 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED N OF 25N ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...DIMINISHING TO A 5-10 KT SHIFT ALONG THE REMNANT TROUGH THROUGH DISSIPATION. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SE LA TO EXTREME NE MEXICO IS DRIFTING NW ACCOMPANIED A NE-E-SE 15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS FRONTAL TROUGH TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. AS THE WESTERN GULF TROUGH AND THIS FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES W THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AN ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD W ACROSS N FL WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER DEVELOPING NEAR 27N84W ON TUE AND NEAR 26N83W ON WED. THE HIGH SHOULD SHIFT NW ALONG THE RIDGE TO OVER LA ON THU WITH THE RIDGE RE-ORIENTATING NW TO SE FROM THE MS DELTA TO FL BAY ON THU NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN ON FRI. AS THE RIDGE FORMS ALONG 27N ON WED A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NE GULF. GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE CONCERNING A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT...AND NOW EXPECT A SECONDARY SURGE TO PUSH THE FRONT E OF THE AREA OVER FL ON THU EVENING.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TSTMS ARE STILL ENHANCED UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND DEPICTED IN WEATHER GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.

EASTERLY TRADES WILL MAINTAIN 15-20 KT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS CONCERNING THE NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA... AND ONLY HINTS AT THOSE CONDITIONS NOT RETURNING TILL SAT EVENING.

SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE EDOUARD ARE IMPACTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ARE UP TO 7 FT NEAR 19N55W. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT ACROSS THE WATERS TUE THROUGH FRI..


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 25N67W AND ENHANCING ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 330 NM OVER ITS W SEMICIRCLE. THESE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SW OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT.

A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N66W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO NE FL. TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING S TO NEAR 28N75W TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E AND W ALONG 28N. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT E TO NEAR 26N65W TUE NIGHT EFFECTIVELY RE-ORIENTATING THE RIDGE NW TO THE SE GA COAST...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY RETRACT SE BEGINNING LATE TUE NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE MOVE SE ACROSS THE NW WATERS WED AND THU. EXPECT A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND SHIFT SE TO NEAR 30N74W EARLY FRI DRAGGING THE WEAK COLD FRONT SW TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WHERE IT WILL STALL LATE FRI. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL REMNANTS DRIFT NW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND GREATER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO MOVE N THROUGH THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 55-57W TODAY THROUGH TUE. EXPECT THE WESTERN RADIUS OF 20-33 KT WINDS TO AFFECT THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 62W. AS FAR AS THE OFFSHORE ZONES...EXPECT SEAS OF 8-10 FT PRIMARILY IN EASTERLY SWELL TO SHIFT N ACROSS THE AREA N OF 25N E OF 70W THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. NWPS HAS HANDLED THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL AND THE OUTPUT USED EXCLUSIVELY IN THE ATLC BASIN WITH ONLY MANUAL SMOOTHING BETWEEN 31-33W.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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