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AGXX40 KNHC 230753
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
353 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A thermal trough will develop each evening over the NW Yucatan Peninsula, move W-NW across the SW Gulf during the overnight hours and dissipate over the SW Gulf waters by late each morning. Expect the trough to be accompanied by a moderate to locally fresh winds that shift from NE to SE along with brief seas to 4 ft through early Tuesday. Expect a tighter pressure gradient on Tuesday evening with a fresh to locally strong wind shift along the trough axis and seas to 5 ft through Wednesday. Weak high pressure will continue to support light to locally moderate anticyclonic flow, and 1 to 3 ft seas, through Wednesday night.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

With Hurricane Maria over the SW N Atlantic about 300 nm E of the Central Bahamas, the gradient remains rather lax across the the Caribbean, and similar gradient is over the tropical N Atlantic forecast waters. This supports generally gentle NE to E winds W of about 70W and moderate E-SE winds to the E of 70W. Gentle NE-E winds are observed over the tropical N Atlantic zones. Moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds are expected through Monday E of 70W, then increasing to fresh to locally strong winds Monday night through Wednesday night as central Atlantic high pressure builds southwestward towards the NE Caribbean and increases the gradient there. Seas over the eastern portion of the Caribbean are currently below 8 ft, but are expected to build to 8 ft early next week in response to the increase of trades there. Seas will remain 6 ft or less over the rest of the Caribbean into next week. NE swell originating from the far NE Atlantic is expected to propagate through the waters E of the forecast tropical N Atlantic zones through Monday night, and arrive into the eastern portions of those same zones on Tuesday.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Hurricane Maria situated about 300 nm E of Nassau, Bahamas at 2 AM EDT with maximum sustained winds 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt and a pressure of 952 mb will continue NNW today and gradually turn to the N this afternoon around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge located to the E of an approaching mid to upper level trough presently observed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This track keeps the center of Maria E of the Central Bahamas and Northern Bahamas, with the forecast track also well W of Bermuda. However, mixed swell will result in 8 ft or greater seas W of 62W, including the Bahama Passages, through early Monday with seas then quickly subsiding from the S. The outer limit of the 12 ft sea radii within the NW quadrant of Maria will continue spread outward towards the general direction of the SE United States coast through the weekend, then more towards the N through early next week. Otherwise, in the wake of Maria a surface trough will extend from the N-central forecast waters SW to near the Central Bahamas through Wednesday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible with the trough.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Tropical Storm Warning tonight. Hurricane Warning Sat into Sun.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... Hurricane Warning tonight into Sat night. Tropical Storm Warning Sun.
.AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Tropical Storm Warning tonight into Sat.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.

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