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AGXX40 KNHC 300752
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
352 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS...THEN MOVE OVER THE SW GULF WATERS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY BE MODERATE TO FRESH. THE STRONGEST EVENT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM 10N TO 21N ALONG 96W. ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE GULF TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH WED NIGHT. S OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT MODERATE E-SE RETURN FLOW PRIMARILY OVER THE W-CENTRAL GULF. MODERATE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FL STRAITS EACH DAY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY EVENINGS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 51W IS ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION FROM 12-17N. THIS WAVE WILL REACH 60W LATE TONIGHT. STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL SPREAD W ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 15N E OF THE LEEWARDS ON SAT...THEN SHIFT WNW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ON SUN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E-SE WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A TROPICAL LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N26W IN THE VICINITY OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC. THE LOW HAS A GOOD CHANGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN E OF 55W THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE...AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF PULSING STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A STRIP OF NEAR GALE FORCE NE-E WINDS IS EXPECTED ABOUT 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. COMBINED SEAS WILL PEAK NEAR 11 FT THIS MORNING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS AREA NEAR 11.5N75.5W.

STRONG E WINDS WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY THIS MORNING.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS W INTO THE AREA FROM 29N55W TO 28N78W. THE GRADIENT S OF THIS RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N WITH FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS BEGINNING TONIGHT S OF 21N E OF 58W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W-NW ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 24N BETWEEN 63-75W BY SUN EVENING.

FRESH E-SE FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE FRESH TO STRONG ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH WED NIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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