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AGXX40 KNHC 201831
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
231 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

A 1007 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS NEAR 20N96W. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF 20 KT WINDS ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. BUOY 42055 IN THE SW GULF HAS REPORTED E-NE WINDS HOVERING AROUND THE 15-20 KT FOR THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE ACROSS THE SW GULF AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS TUE AND IS FORECAST TO STALL FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS WED WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS FORMED THIS MORNING IN THE SW GULF AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK E-NE THROUGH SAT AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC THEREAFTER. ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS SCENARIO AND THE OVERALL TRACKING OF THE LOW HAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND RESULTING WINDS. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES AND LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF. A HIGHER WEIGHTED BLEND TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH A LOWER WEIGHT OF THE 12Z GFS RUN...GIVING THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IN THE SW GULF AND A MORE BAROCLINIC LOOK TO THE EAST IN THE SW NORTH ATLC BY SAT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 3-5 FT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS... AND 4-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT INTO TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AFTER WED WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WOULD MOST LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...HOWEVER A NORTHERLY TRACK WOULD GIVE THE LOW AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENERGY TO WORK WITH AS IT TRACKS E-NE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ON TUE... THEN MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY MIDWEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N63W W-SW TO 28N74W AND CONTINUES TO LOSE DEFINITION FARTHER WEST ALONG 28N TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND 4-5 FT SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE W OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT N OF 30N WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT S OF 30N CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH EARLY TUE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY WED AND WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N68W SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA BY THU...STALLING FROM NEAR 27N70W TO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY FRI.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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