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AGXX40 KNHC 021731
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
109 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ANCHORED TO 1009 MB LOW PRES OVER APALACHEE BAY. THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS BEING INFLUENCED NORTHEASTWARD BY THE LEADING EDGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF COASTAL WATERS AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO MON BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH THE REMNANTS LIFTING NE OF THE AREA TUE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE NE GULF THROUGH MON. SW WINDS IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW ARE A FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG BREEZE. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IN PLACE FOR OVER A DAY AND SEAS ARE BELIEVED TO BE TO 8 FT IN THE NE GULF. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE ENERGY OVER THE NE GULF.

A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE NW DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING LATE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE BEHIND THE TROUGH IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.




...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL GROW AS THE RIDGE BUILDS W OVER THE SW N ATLC OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE N...AND THEN BACK OFF TO A DIURNAL MAX OF 30 KT BY MON. AT THAT TIME...THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE SHIFTING E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THU AS THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE N WEAKENS.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ASIDE FROM AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS TROPICAL WAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE AND EXIT THE AREA WED NIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE WED...REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT.




...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WIDESPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH WED AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND ITS REMNANTS SHIFT W. WINDS IN THE NW WATERS BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 30N65W TO S FL AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER APALACHICOLA BAY HAVE DIMINISHED TO A FRESH BREEZE FOR NOW ACCORDING TO THE LAST RAPIDSCAT PASS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...BUT LOOK FOR SW WINDS TO INCREASE HERE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE MON AND MON NIGHT AS THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NE THROUGH GA AND OFF THE COAST NEAR SAVANNAH. AFTER THAT SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA TUE...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO W WATERS. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 28N74W WED AND THU. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE THE WEAKENED RIDGE DIMINISHES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO MON.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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