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AGXX40 KNHC 300759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
359 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.




...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING...FLOWING AROUND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE GULF. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE UPCOMING SEVERAL DAYS RELATES TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS YUCATAN AND THE FAR S CENTRAL GULF WATERS LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER AS IT MOVES INTO THE FAR SW GULF LATE SUN AND MON...WHERE IT WILL SLOW AND DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF VERACRUZ THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE REMAIN SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH THE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SW GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET OR NAVGEM. OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW MON THROUGH WED OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA AND COSTA RICA WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND W OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRES HAD BEEN NOTED ALONG THIS WAVE NE OF HONDURAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATES THAT THIS LOW HAS DISSIPATED. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WERE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 0230 UTC. THIS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING...BUT ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. STRONG SE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE WEST IN THE SW GULF ALONG THE EXITING TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 T0 10 FT W OF 85W BY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW PRES SHIFTS WEST AND THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 55W WILL APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY...ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUNDAY...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MONDAY. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE ALTHOUGH CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ TO THE EAST OF TRINIDAD. TRADE WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE ENHANCED MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MAY DAMPEN OUT ALTOGETHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON WIND PATTERNS IN THE BASIN. A THIRD AND MORE DEVELOPED TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BRINGING MAINLY INCREASED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 OR 9 FT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO THE STRONGER TRADER WIND FLOW IN THAT AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N69W IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF 22N. OTHERWISE RIDGING PERSISTS MAINLY OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS N OF 22N AND MODERATE TO FRESH S OF 22N. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES MIGRATE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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