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AGXX40 KNHC 280620
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
120 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE SW WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE... EXCEPT GENTLE TO MODERATE OVER THE SW WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE OVER THE NW WATERS AND 4-6 FT OVER THE REMAINING WATERS. THE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SW WATERS THROUGH TUE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. SE RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN WATERS LATE SUN AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE REMAINING WATERS THROUGH TUE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO RETREAT EASTWARD. THE RETREATING RIDGE WILL ENABLE A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS WED. GALES ARE POSSIBLE W OF THE FRONT BY EARLY THU.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE TO GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAILING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 11-14 FT RANGE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...8-11 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...6-8 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...3-6 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 8-9 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO GALE FORCE EACH NIGHT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT. RIDGE PREVAILING N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SAT BEFORE THE RIDGE STARTS TO RETREAT EASTWARD. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE WINDS OVER THESE AREAS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NE WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS W OF THE FRONT...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE W OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS THE SE WATERS. SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE PREVAIL E OF THE BAHAMAS WHILE 1-3 FT SEAS PREVAIL W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SEE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE SUN. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND E OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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