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AGXX40 KNHC 020756
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
356 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING DOLLY HAS FORMED IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING NEAR 22.4N 94.4W AS OF 02/0600 UTC. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BUOY 42055 INDICATED SEAS TO 12 FT AT 06 UTC IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE STORM WARNING. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 16 FT LATER TODAY OVER THE FAR W CENTRAL GULF OFF THE COAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE WED OFF THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF TAMAULIPAS. NUMEROUS SQUALLS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SW GULF THROUGH LATE TUE AS DOLLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NW GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY WED WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT IN SE SWELL S OF 27N. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT...ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE GULF FROM THURSDAY ONWARD EXCEPT OFF THE NW COAST OF YUCATAN WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE LATE EVENINGS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS IS ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 18N TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS WESTWARD. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. ONE BETWEEN HAITI AND NE COLOMBIA WILL SHIFT W REACHING BETWEEN JAMAICA AND PANAMA TONIGHT...THEN IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT AND INLAND OVER YUCATAN BY THU NIGHT. ANOTHER ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL PASS BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA TONIGHT...BETWEEN HAITI AND NE COLOMBIA WED NIGHT...JAMAICA AND PANAMA THU NIGHT BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE FRI. YET ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FARTHER EAST IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WILL PASS 55W TUE...ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED...REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE FRI. MEANWHILE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PULSING UPWARD BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES AND AT NIGHT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH SEAS REACHING AS HIGH AS 9 FT AT TIMES. SIMILARLY...WINDS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OFF COAST OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT...REACHING 25 KT BY LATE THU AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS AND OFF HISPANIOLA.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 24N75W CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY S OF 27N...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. A WEAK TROUGH...LIKELY A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS LOW...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THE NW BAHAMAS WED BEFORE MOVING ACROSS S FLORIDA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO WED.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
.GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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