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AGXX40 KNHC 261648
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1248 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR FIRST 24 HOURS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WILL RACE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THIS EVENING AND MOVE SE OF THE GULF WATERS ON FRI EVENING. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION PRECEDES THE FRONT AND IS DENOTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHERLY 20-30 KT FLOW W OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD S ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT...REACHING THE FAR WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRI MORNING...WITH THE GALE WARNING INCREASED TO 30-40 KT OVER THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR 12Z FRI- 00Z SAT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON FRI EVENING WITH NW-N WINDS DIMINISHED TO 10-15 KT BY SAT MORNING. A POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NW GULF ON FRI NIGHT WILL SHIFT ENE TO OVER THE W FL PANHANDLE ON SAT NIGHT...SHIFT SSE TO THE FL BIG BEND AREA ON SUN NIGHT...THEN SHIFT W OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF WATERS ON MON WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THRU TUE. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT NE-E 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SE GULF...INCLUDING THE N APPROACH TO THE YUCATAN PASSAGE...ON SAT AND SUN EVENINGS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NW GULF ON SUN NIGHT WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING E ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON MON...AND ACROSS THE E GULF ON TUE. THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF 20-25 KT NE FLOW ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL RESUME AGAIN ON SUN EVENING.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR FIRST 24 HOURS ACROSS TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN PASSAGE ON FRI EVENING. THIS STRONG FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON SAT...AND LOSE IDENTITY FROM HISPANIOLA TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT W OF THE FRONT ON FRI NIGHT...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON SUN EVENING. EXPECT A SWATCH OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 16N78W ON MON EVENING...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX.

FURTHER TO THE S EXPECT THE PERSISTENT ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...TO SUPPORT STRONG 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 90-150 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING TONIGHTS EVENT WILL MAX BRIEFLY AT 30 KT. FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A LITTLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 27N55W TO 23N65W WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARDS ON FRI. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO CENTRAL FL WITH A BAND OF 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG 25N BETWEEN 55-72W. THIS BAND OF ENHANCED WINDS WILL SHIFT SE TO ALONG 23N E OF 70W TONIGHT...AND THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON FRI. SE-S 15-20 KT RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS WILL INCREASE TO SW AT 20-25 KT N OF 30N TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST ON FRI AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD S TO ALONG 27N WHILE INCREASING TO 20- 30 KT ON FRI EVENING. NW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT ON FRI EVENING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SAT EVENING WITH GRADIENT THEN SUPPORTING NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N60W TO HAITI ON SUN MORNING...FROM 31N57W TO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON SUN EVENING...THEN STALL AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM 25N55W TO THE MONA PASSAGE ON MON EVENING. A W TO E RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG 27N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MON...THEN SHIFT S TO ALONG 26N ON TUE. EXPECT A SW-W 20-25 KT WIND SHIFT TO DEVELOP N OF 30N ON MON ALONG ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE ON MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N56W TO 29N65W...THEN STALL ALONG 27N TO THE FL COAST ON TUE.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING FRI.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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