Home


000
AGXX40 KNHC 250520
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
120 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT OVER THE EXTREME SE GULF WATERS WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF REACHING THE FL BIG BEND AREA ON SUN NIGHT...THEN MOVE NE OF THE AREA MON WITH A E-W RIDGE THEN BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG ABOUT 31N THROUGH WED. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 3-5 FT ACROSS THE NW WATERS ON MON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON TUE. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX EVEN MORE ON WED WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS W OF 90W. N-NE 15-20 KT FLOW CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE N TODAY WITH NE WINDS AT 15 KT CONTINUING ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND N APPROACH TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH SUN. THESE WINDS WILL CLOCK TO THE E-SE ON SUN NIGHT...INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ON MON...THEN SPREAD W ACROSS THE GULF WATERS E OF 90W ON TUE BEFORE RELAXING ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVING WNW REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND MON WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO LOSE IDENTITY IN THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 15N ALONG 49W WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND SUN...AND PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON MON-TUE...REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON WED. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE S OF 14N ALONG 40W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE...AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON WED. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE E STALLING FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS/SEAS 4-7 FT WILL SPREAD S THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN BECOME NW-N ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS W OF THE DEVELOPING LOW TONIGHT INTO SUN. ALTHOUGH ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW DEVELOPMENT...THEY VARY ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING OF THE LOW CENTER MEANDERING NEAR 17N81W ON SUN ACCOMPANIED BY NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE...THEN THE LOW WILL MOVE W ON SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT THEN SHIFTING TO OVER ITS N SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE LOW TO DRAG REMNANTS OF THE FRONT W ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIP WHICH IS DENOTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS W CUBA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACCOMPANIED BY MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW SHOULD LOSE IDENTITY AS IT PASSES N OF 31N TONIGHT DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT E TO A POSITION FROM 31N65W TO E CUBA. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N60W TO 26N65W TO HAITI LATE SUN...WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 31N55W TO 25N63W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE MON...AND FURTHER WEAKEN TO A SHEAR LINE FROM 28N55W TO 25N60W LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. A RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM W TO E ALONG 28-29N W OF THE FRONT ON SUN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING E OFF THE FL COAST TO NEAR 31N80W ON SUN NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA ON MON EFFECTIVELY RE-ORIENTATING THE RIDGE SW TO NE FL ON TUE. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN NE-E 15-20 KT FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N W OF 65W ON MON-TUE...WITH THE WINDS CLOCKING TO THE E AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE THE ENTIRE WATERS S OF 28N ON WED.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY.
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Home