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AGXX40 KNHC 221724
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1224 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: SMALL PERCENTAGE LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS THEN USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES N OF AREA IS MAINTAINING E-SE 20-25 KT/SEAS 7-10 FT ACROSS WATERS N OF 24N...AND E-SE 10-15 KT/SEAS 3-6 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CLOCK TO THE S-SW 20-25 KT OVER THE NW GULF WATERS TONIGHT..AND CONTINUE AT E-SE 20-25 KT OVER THE NE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS E ACROSS TX. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY THE SLIGHTEST SW-WSW WIND SHIFT...WILL PUSH OFF THE TX COAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT BE PRECEDED BY AN INTENSE LINE OF TS AS THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH INCREASES TO 20-30 KT. NOTE THAT THE SREF IS NOT SUGGESTING GALE FORCE ATTM. THE ASSOCIATED RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TX COAST ON SUN NIGHT WITH GRADIENT RELAXING AND SUPPORTING ONLY SW-W 15-20 KT FLOW N OF 25N E OF 90W. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM FL PANHANDLE TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SUN NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT AT 10-15 KT SUN NIGHT...BUT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MON...THEN BECOMING N-NE 20-25 KT W OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SLOW FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AROUND SUNSET MON. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM PORT CHARLOTTE FL TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A FRONTAL WAVE LOW MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP ON TUE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD W OF THIS FRONT INCREASING THE NLY FLOW TO 20-30 KT BY TUE EVENING...EXCEPT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR 19N96W BEGINNING TUE EVENING AND PERSISTING TILL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA ON WED WITH N 20-30 KT ACROSS THE THE ENTIRE SE PORTION OF THE GULF. A HIGH PRES CENTER WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WATERS ON WED WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 4-7 FT OVER ONLY THE SE GULF ON THU.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE FRESH TRADES WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AND E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO STRONG TONIGHT... THEN CONTINUE STRONG THROUGH EARLY WED...THEN DIMINISH TO FRESH TRADES AGAIN BY WED NIGHT...AND FURTHER DIMINISH TO MODERATE TRADES ON THU. MODERATE E-SE TRADES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON...THEN WILL DIMINISH SOME TUE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA ON WED NIGHT WITH STRONG NORTHERLY 20-30 KT WINDS AND SEAS 8-12 FT DEVELOPING W OF THE FRONT. MAY NEED A MINIMAL GALE DUE TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. THE NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD DIMINISH FROM THE N TO 20-25 KT ON THU...AND 15-20 KT ON THU NIGHT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N55W TO NEAR 25N70W WHERE IT BECOMES BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE CAY SAL BANK. STRONG NE-E 20- 25 KT FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 63W WITH SEAS TO A MAX OF 12 FT MAINLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED ATLC WATERS OF THE NE BAHAMAS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO TRANSITION TO WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 65W...AND LIFT N TONIGHT...WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND FL STRAITS. THIS WILL CLOCK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SE AT 20-25 KT W OF 72W...AND E-SE AT 15-20 KT BETWEEN 55-72W BY SUNRISE ON SUN. THE SE FLOW LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT N OF 30N W OF 76W ON SUN MORNING...THEN BECOME S 20-25 KT N OF THE BAHAMAS ON SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME ON MON WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE SE GA COAST ON MON EVENING. THIS INITIAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL FROM 31N74W TO FT PIERCE FL ON TUE EVENING. THE PARENT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUE NIGHT MERGING THE INITIAL BOUNDARY. THE MERGED FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 31N75W TO NW CUBA ON WED NIGHT...THEN STALL FROM 31N68W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON THU NIGHT. EXPECT THE N FLOW TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT W OF THE FRONT LATE WED...EXCEPT 25-30 KT N OF 29N. SEAS WILL BUILD IN 11 FT IN THE GULF STREAM ON WED.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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