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AGXX40 KNHC 281805
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE OF 1013 MB REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF GENERATING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE SW N ATLC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

AN INVERTED THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE NW DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. MAINLY FRESH N-NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT RELATED TO THIS TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF.

A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE COAST OF TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S ON FRI AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF WATERS. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE 1134 UTC HIGH-RESOLUTION RAPIDSCAT PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... PARTICULARLY FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS UP TO 14 FT WITHIN THE AREA OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN/ PANAMANIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 12-13 FT. THE SAME SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS COVERING MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND ALSO THE GULF OF VENEZUELA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 85W/86W WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TONIGHT ENTERING THE W CARIBBEAN ON WED. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 50W S OF 19N WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W TONIGHT...ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON WED NIGHT...INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU NIGHT...AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY FRI NIGHT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE FAR NW WATERS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS BASED ON SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO THE LOW PRES CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29N83W. THEN...THE LOW PRES WILL MOVE SLOWLY ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH WED AND THU WHILE THE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT INCREASING SWLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLC RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 26N/27N. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT N AND STRENGTHEN BY FRI AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES MOVES AWAY FROM THE FORECAST REGION. FRESH TRADES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EACH EVENING.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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