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MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
345 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK 1015 HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 1 TO 2 FT RANGE. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INCREASING TO 20 KT SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON. DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS... E-SE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENINGS SAT THROUGH MON BUILDING SEAS TO 5 TO 7 FT OVER THIS AREA. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW GULF TUE NIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILS N OF THE AREA KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAK OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF 15N E OF 80W WITH LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRI AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 9 FT THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 8 FT AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 15N WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS N OF 15N. NW TO N SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE N CENTRAL AND NE WATERS EARLY SUN BEFORE STARTING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE FAR SE WATERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CLIPS THE AREA FROM 26N65W TO 26N69W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRES CURRENTLY LOCATED N OF AREA IS FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION NEAR 30N70W BY FRI EVENING...AND WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION SAT. CURRENTLY...THE STRONGEST WINDS... IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AND THE HIGHEST SEAS OF 8-12 FT ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR NE CORNER IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED WELL N OF AREA NEAR 42N58W. N TO NE SWELL GENERATED BY THIS LARGE AREA OF LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ZONE AMZ115 THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WATERS N OF 29N SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND PASS E OF THE AREA MON. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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