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AGXX40 KNHC 281803
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
203 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

STRONG SE INFLOW ACROSS NW PORTIONS INTO VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION ENTERING THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING KICKED UP SEAS 6-9 FT ACROSS NW PORTIONS WITH 3 BUOYS REACHING 7 FT OR HIGHER..AND 42020 HOLDING AT 9 FT ATTM. MODELS DID NOT FORESEE THIS AND ADJUSTED MANUALLY IN THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL HAVE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR NEXT PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES CENTERED ALONG NE COASTAL PLAINS DOMINATES AND IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE FLOW BASIN WIDE EXCEPT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE NE PART. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED TONIGHT INTO SUN AS A TROUGH MOVES S ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AS T.D. TWO CONTINUES NW TOWARDS THE SE U.S. COAST. NEW HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS S LOUISIANA BY SUN AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY SETTLE SE AND INTO NE CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THEN...EXCEPT OFFSHORE OF THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE DIURNAL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP EACH LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING W-NW AND OFFSHORE INTO THE NW GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

VERY WEAK LLVL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS W AND SW PORTIONS...WHILE A LLVL WEAKNESS CARVED OUT BY SW ATLC TROUGH IS KEEPING ATLC RIDGING FROM BUILDING INTO E PART OF BASIN. THIS IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE SW. TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB OVERNIGHT IS BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE CENTRAL AMERICA GYRE AS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NW AND DIMINISH NEXT FEW DAYS. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING S PART OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND WINDWARDS WILL CONTINUE WWD AND ACROSS SE PORTIONS NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING LOCATED IN THE SW N ATLC CONTINUES TO DISRUPT CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING. LOW PRESSURE TYPICALLY FOUND OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL ALSO BE WEAKER THAN NORMAL FURTHER HELPING TO KEEP A WEAK PATTERN. AS A RESULT...MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXCEPT LIGHT TO GENTLE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...EXCEPT 4-7 FT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS CENTERED NEAR 30.3N 78.5W AT 15Z WITH MAX WINDS STILL AT 30 KT. MORNING RECON FOUND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S BUT WAS LOCATED WITHIN THE CDO THAT DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND NOT REALLY WITHIN THE CORE OF THE CIRCULATION. TD TWO REMAINS INVOLVED WITH THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING THE REGION...AND WILL BE STEERED NW TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST STRENGTHENS THE SYSTEM TO A T.S. BY 00Z AT WHICH TIME FAR N PORTIONS OF AMZ111 SEE T.S. WINDS FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA. MAX SEAS ASSOCIATED HAVE REMAINED ACROSS THE NE SEMICIRCLE AND WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE N LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD SLOWLY WWD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT BLOCKED BY LLVL TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THAT MAY PRODUCE A NARROW ZONE OF STRONG S TO SE WINDS ALONG THE E SIDE OF TROUGH. OTHERWISE... THE ATLC RIDGE WILL REORGANIZE OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS BY MID WEEK AND FRESHEN SE FLOW ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHILE TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF W HALF OF THE AREA TO MAINTAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS W OF 70W.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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