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AGXX40 KNHC 211850
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
150 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW S OF TALLAHASSEE NEAR 29N85W TO NEAR POZA RICA MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND DRIFT N TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING IN AND NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MON. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INTENSIFY LATE MON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF TUE. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED...AND MOVE EAST OF AREA WED NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY WEST OF THE FRONT TUE NIGHT AND WED BASED ON GEFS PROBABILITIES. GFS MODEL SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30- 35 KT ACROSS ZONES GMZ011 AND GMZ017 BY TUE EVENING...AND ACROSS ZONE GMZ023 TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION. PEAK SEAS LIKELY TO 10-15 FT BEHIND FRONT WED.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT... EXTEND FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU...THEN STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU NIGHT AND FRI. STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT. LATEST ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS WILL INTENSIFY N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA MON AND TUE...REACHING 25-30 KT IN LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MAX SEAS BUILDING TO 10-12 FT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND 6-7 FT SEAS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 8 FT IN NE SWELL ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS MON AND TUE.


...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AND DRIFT N OF THE AREA MON. A WEAK RIDGE WILL PERSIST N OF 25N THROUGH MON NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN NW WATERS TUE NIGHT AND WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N77W TO W CUBA THU...FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT... THEN WEAKEN FROM 29N65W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FRI. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT N OF 28N ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT THU.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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