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AGXX40 KNHC 191737
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
137 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS HAS PUSHED INTO THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE PREVAIL. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FAR SE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GULF WATERS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS TUE AND WED.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS N OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN OBSERVATIONS DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE...EXCEPT TO 11 FT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ALSO PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL RETREAT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFT INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS. WITH THE RIDGE RETREATING EASTWARD...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LOOSEN AND WINDS...AND ASSOCIATED SEAS...WILL DECREASE. BY MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THU.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE IN NE TO E SWELL. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY TUE AFTERNOON...SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS WILL CONTINUE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH AT LEAST THU.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN WITH STRENGTH OF WINDS OVER FAR NW WATERS...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

LOW PRESSURE WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS JUST W OF THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE OVER THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...1 TO 3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS N OF 23N AND 4 TO 7 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS S OF 23N. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN WATERS BY THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE MOVING N OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE SHIFTING E OF THE FORECAST WATERS TUE AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS WED WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER THIS AREA BEFORE SHIFTING E OF THE AREA BY THU.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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