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AGXX40 KNHC 220746
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
246 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE TODAY AS THE SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NE OF THE AREA. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL LIFT NE AS WELL TODAY. 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH SEAS TO 6 FT. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST WATERS EARLY TUE AND EMERGE INTO THE NW GULF TUE AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DELIVER GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN GULF LATE TUE THROUGH EARLY WED. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR OFFSHORE ZONE GMZ011 IN THE FAR NW GULF WHERE THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF GALES FOR TUE NIGHT...BUT WITH HIGH CERTAINTY OF WINDS BREACHING 30 KT AT LEAST. ELSEWHERE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...WITH WINDS TO 40 KT OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ BY EARLY WED. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF LATE TUE THROUGH WED...WITH 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL ELSEWHERE THROUGH LATE WED. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AFTERWARD THROUGH EARLY FRI. IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND SHIFTS NE TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRI. FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BE OCCUR OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY FRI AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OF THE COAST SAT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS/MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT... EXTEND FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU...THEN STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU NIGHT AND FRI. STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT. LATEST ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVERNIGHT WINDS OFF COLOMBIA TO REACH 30 KT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MAX SEAS BUILDING TO 10-12 FT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND 6-7 FT SEAS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 8 FT IN NE SWELL ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY AND TUE. NE SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PENETRATE THE OFFSHORE ZONES NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATE FRI.


...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS/MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OFF NE FLORIDA WILL DRIFT N OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE WILL PERSIST N OF 25N THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN NW WATERS TUE NIGHT AND WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N75W TO W CUBA THU...FROM 31N68W TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE THU NIGHT... THEN WEAKEN FROM 29N65W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FRI. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT N OF 28N ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT THU.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING TUE EVENING.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TUE EVENING. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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