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AGXX40 KNHC 011901
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
201 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COASTAL TROUGH REACHES FROM WEAK LOW PRES OFF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS TO NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO. WARM AND MOIST E TO SE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF EAST OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS NOTED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM AND MOIST FLOW...ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF SW LOUISIANA AND NE TEXAS. A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM THE WARM FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF THROUGH THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

OBSERVATIONS FROM COASTAL AND OFFSHORE PLATFORMS INDICATE AREAS OF SEA FOG OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF PERSISTING THIS AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 NM. THE MOIST AND RELATIVELY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER COOLER SHELF WATER IN THE NW GULF IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FOG. THE ONGOING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT INCREASED FOG CHANCES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW OR EVEN TUESDAY...WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST GULF.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE BY MID WEEK WILL BE THE ONSET OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATE WED. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT FRONT. COLD AIR AND A TIGHT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NW GULF WED NIGHT...AND OVER THE FAR W CENTRAL AND SW GULF ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST THU AND THU NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF BY LATE FRI BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE SAT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EARLIER SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES WINDS OFF COLOMBIA MAY BE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 11-14 FT RANGE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...8-11 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...6-8 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 7-10 FT IN NE SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW WINDS OFF COLOMBIA TO PULSE TO GALE WARNING FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DECREASE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK N OF THE AREA BY MIDWEEK WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WINDS OVER THESE AREAS WED AND THU. NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM 31N79W TO NEAR DAYTONA FLORIDA. STRONG HIGH PRES MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS N OF 28N AS NOTED IN LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE IN THIS REGION...6-8 FT ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT RANGE W OF THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO START MOVING EARLY MON...SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY THU. THE SECOND FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SE BEFORE STALLING FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA BY LATE FRI. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRI. MWW3 SHOWS WAVE HEIGHTS REACHING 8 TO 11 FT AS WELL.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU.
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO FRI.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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