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AGXX40 KNHC 310737
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
337 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE NEAR 24.3N 88.1W 1004 MB AT 0600 UTC AUG 31 DRIFTING W AT 3 KT. STRONG CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION AND IS BUILDING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OFF WESTERN CUBA. RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF ON THE PERIPHERY OF T.D. NINE. SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT IN THESE AREAS...WITH 9 FT LIKELY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS PERSIST ACROSS THE NW GULF AS WELL DUE TO CONVERGENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS. T.D. NINE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA REACHING THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL CROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION BY FRIDAY.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER T.D. NINE CENTERED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGING IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IN SUPPORT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 80W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, ALLOWING TRADE WIND FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WERE NOTED OFF COLOMBIA IN A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. A WEAK TROUGH WELL EAST OF THE AREA WILL PASS THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THU, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRI...FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL WAVE SAT. THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MAY ALLOW INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS W OF 75W ON THE PERIPHERY OF T.D. NINE CENTERED IN THE S CENTRAL GULF. T.D. NINE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AND MOVE TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA...ALLOWING THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER STARTING LATE THU N OF THE BAHAMAS OFF NE FLORIDA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FT IN THE WATERS N OF 29N W OF 70W THROUGH EARLY SAT AS THE STORM MOVES NE TO OFF THE CAROLINAS...BRINGING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO ZONE AMZ111 OFF NE FLORIDA THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING IN THE PROCESS. ELSEWHERE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO A POSITION BETWEEN 24N TO 26N ALLOWING RELATIVE LIGHT WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST LATE IN THE WEEK S OF 22N BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN S OF THE REGION WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS OUTSIDE THE PROTECTED WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO THU.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU NIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN/MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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