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000
AGXX40 KNHC 270744
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
244 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

High pressure centered over the Carolinas extends a ridge to the
SW across the Gulf waters. This is resulting in moderate to
fresh southeasterly winds over the western half of the Gulf and
northeast to east winds over the eastern half of the Gulf with
seas mainly between 3 to 5 ft. As the high moves eastward across
the Atlantic Ocean, winds will continue to veer to the SE and S
across the remainder of the Gulf region. Little change in this
weather pattern and marine conditions is anticipated through most
of the day Wednesday. A thermal trough will developd over the
Yucatan Peninsula during the evening hours, before pushing
offshore into the SW Gulf each night. A surge of fresh to locally
strong winds will accompany this trough through Wednesday
evening. A cold front will reach the northwestern Gulf by late
Wednesday, then move quickly southeastward Wednesday night into
Thursday, reaching from south Florida to the eastern Bay of
Campeche by Thursday evening. Latest model guidance is forecasting
strong to near gale winds behind the front, with the highest
chance for gales across the southwestern Gulf along the coast of
Veracruz during the day Thursday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

The most recent scatterometer pass provided observations of
fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia with moderate
to fresh trades across the remainder of the east and central
Caribbean. Lighther winds are noted over the NW Caribbean. High
pressure building north of the area will bring increasing winds
and building seas across most of the basin, and the Tropical N
Atlantic waters, including also the Atlantic passages tonight.
By this evening, strong trades will cover the central Caribbean
and the Windward Passage, with mainly fresh trades elsewhere.
Then, strong nocturnal flow is expected within about 90 nm of the
coast of Colombia, with winds reaching minimal gale force during
the overnight and early morning hours through Friday night. Seas
are forecast to build to 13-14 ft near the coast of Colombia
with the gale force winds. A gale warning remains in effect for
that area. Outside of the gale region, seas are forecast to build
to 8-10 ft across the east and central Caribbean, and the
Tropical N Atlantic, with seas to 8 ft in the Windward passage.
By late Friday, winds are forecast to increase to 20 kt across
the Yucatan Channel due to the presence of a strong high pressure
over the SE CONUS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A frontal boundary extends from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas. The
front will move SE across the forecast waters today while
weakening. High pressure in the wake of the front will support
moderate to fresh NE-E winds across much of the area today.
Then, the high will shift eastward extending a ridge across the
forecast waters through Wednesday. Under the influence of the
ridge, expect fresh easterly winds across the waters south of 22N
through Wednesday, with seas building to 7-8 ft east of the
Bahamas mainly tonight through Thursday. By Thursday, expect
increasing winds across the NW waters ahead of the next cold
front forecast to move into the area by early Thursday afternoon.
The front will reach from near Bermuda to south-central Florida
on Thursday night. Mainly fresh northerly winds are expected
behind the front with seas of 6-7 ft. On Friday, winds will
further increase to 20-25 kt in the wake of the front with seas
building to 8 ft. The front is forecast to extend from 30N65W to
the central Bahamas and central Cuba by Friday night.









$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
Gale Warning tonight.
Gale Warning Tue night.
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed night.
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

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