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AGXX40 KNHC 291840
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF-UKMET-GFS CONSENSUS...WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF-UKMET.

LINGERING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. A SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N88W SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE GULF DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W GULF AND IS EXPECTED TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST ISSUE NOW BECOMES THE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA CURRENTLY MOVING WNW 20 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA. FOR THE MID-MORNING PACKAGE USED A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BUT LEANED HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS. AS SUCH THE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS/STRAITS EARLY SUN THEN NW TO NEAR 27N84W MON... 29N85W TUE AND SLOWING TO NEAR 30.5N85W WED. NWP MODELS APPEAR NOT TO RESOLVE THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW AND THUS INCLUDED AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS WITH THE REMNANT LOW. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST OF THIS SYSTEM.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-UKMET-ECMWF CONSENSUS.

WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CARIB REMAIN LIGHTER THAN NORMAL IN LIGHT TO MODERATE N TO NE FLOW...AND WERE ONLY 10-15 KT OVER MOST OF THE BASIN. THE HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WERE NOT SAMPLED BY THE 1430 AND 1522 UTC ASCAT PASSES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THIS SAME PASS CAPTURED SOME OF THE 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CIRCULATION OF ERIKA OVER E CUBA. WEAK ATLC RIDGING TO BUILD INTO BAHAMAS BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA TONIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN FOR BROAD ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CENTRAL PORTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUN THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH WED. WINDS COULD PEAK NEAR 30 KT TONIGHT THERE. NEXT LARGE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ALONG 58W/59W WILL ENTER THE CARIB LATE TONIGHT TO ALONG 64W EARLY SUN...70W SUN NIGHT...AND 76W MON EVENING. SHARP LOW TO MOD TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO WEAKEN PRES GRADIENT AT SFC SLIGHTLY DURING PASSAGE. THE FOLLOWING WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS 5 FT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF-UKMET-GFS CONSENSUS...WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND UKMET.

1430 AND 1522 UTC ASCAT PASSES CAPTURED AN AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF ERIKA. AS SUCH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN TRANSITIONED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR AMZ117. THIS AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF 20-30 KT WINDS S OF 26N AND OTHERWISE WITHIN 300 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE REMNANT LOW. THE MOST RECENT ALTIMETER PASS EXHIBITED A HIGH BIAS AND WAS THEREFORE NOT RELIABLE IN DETERMINING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE REMNANT LOW. THE WIND SURGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF BAHAMAS AND INTO SE FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SUN AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...LEAVING AN AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS SPREADING OVER COASTAL WATERS OF S FLORIDA...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH SW OF BERMUDA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH NE GULF UPPER TROUGH PRODUCING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FAR NW PORTIONS THROUGH MON. SFC PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN ERIKA AND RIDGE TO PRODUCE FRESH TRADES SE PORTIONS TONIGHT AND SUN THEN BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH MON- TUE...WITH LATE AFTERNOON EVENING WIND MAX EXPECTED ALONG N COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.GALE AMZ117...TONIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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