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AGXX40 KNHC 020623
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
123 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE OVER THE SE WATERS...1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE NE WATERS...AND 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED FOG PRODUCT INDICATE AREAS OF SEA FOG CONTINUE OVER THE NW WATERS. THE ONGOING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT INCREASED FOG CHANCES TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY...WITH VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST GULF.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF...AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL GULF WATERS THROUGH TUE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK ENABLING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS WED. STRONG TO NEAR GALE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NW GULF AND THE FAR W CENTRAL AND SW GULF ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST THU AND THU NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF BY LATE FRI BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE SAT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAILING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...7-10 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...5-6 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 7-10 FT ON NE SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH FRI. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK N OF THE AREA AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. NE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRING TRADES N OF HISPANIOLA AND SPREADING INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...6-7 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND 1-3 FT RANGE W OF THE BAHAMAS. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE STATIONARY FRONT STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND E OF THE AREA BY TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE RETREATING EASTWARD AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THU AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL W OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT OVER THE NW WATERS BY WEEKS END.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU.
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO FRI.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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