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AGXX40 KNHC 281823
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
123 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 25N94W CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE WESTERN GULF AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBS SHOW GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 90W. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE W OF 90W. E OF 90W...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE MODERATE IN STRENGTH WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. THESE STRONGER WINDS GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN GULF WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA ARE MAINLY DUE TO A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER WHICH WAS ANALYZED AT 28/1200 UTC ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

THE HIGH IN THE W CENTRAL GULF WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH A STRONGER HIGH PRES MOVING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS BY THU. GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GULF BY THU MORNING WITH 3-5 FT SEAS IN THE SE GULF AND 1-3 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SKIRT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF LATE THU NIGHT AND STALL ALONG 27N FRI BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT BY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS SUN NIGHT LATE INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE GULF BY EARLY MON WITH SEAS 3-5 FT BUILDING QUICKLY TO 5-8 FT. AS THIS FORECAST PERIOD NEARS...POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ ARE POSSIBLE AND OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GRIDS WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM 17N75W TO THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 09.5N82W...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS W OF THE SHEAR LINE WHERE SEAS ARE 6-9 FT. THIS SHEAR LINE WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY THU AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THU AFTER THE WIND FIELD WEAKENS WITH SEAS 4-6 FT BY FRI W OF 80W ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN.

SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP DATA SHOWED FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG NE- E WINDS HUGGING THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED SEAS 6-8 FT. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH UP TO 30 KT TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BRIEF LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 12-14 FT BY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING NEAR THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS.

FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA BY LATE TONIGHT...DIMINISHING BY FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-9 FT JUST DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY THU MORNING...AND TO 8 FT IN THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA.

OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 5-8 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. THE TAIL END OF A CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT MAY EXTEND INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS THU NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND PERIODS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A PAIR OF FRONTS ARE CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE EASTERN FRONT IS STATIONARY AND EXTENDS FROM 25N65W TO HAITI AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS A SHEAR LINE. MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THAN ITS COUNTERPART...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE WESTERN FRONT IS A COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO 24N80W. RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B PASSES INDICATED PREVIOUS GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...LEAVING 20 TO 30 KT WINDS OCCURRING N OF 29N W OF THE FRONT TO 71W. FRESH NW WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED W OF 71W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GENERALLY N OF 26N. AS THE WIND FIELD HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SEAS REMAIN IN THE 12-15 FT RANGE HIGHEST NEAR 31N68W. 8 FT SEAS REACH AS FAR WEST AS 78W...PRIMARILY NE OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N60W TO 22N67W BY THU MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AND SEAS 8-10 FT N OF 24N BETWEEN THE BOUNDARY AND 72W.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PORTION LATE THU NIGHT...REACHING FROM 31N77W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA FRI MORNING...FROM 31N70W TO FORT PIERCE FLORIDA FRI EVENING...AND FROM 31N63W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SAT MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME A REMNANT SHEAR LINE AS IT CONTINUES TO SINK TO THE S STRETCHING FROM 24N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SUN MORNING AS NEW HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE CAROLINAS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL ARRIVE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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