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AGXX40 KNHC 080759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
259 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

A GALE IS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A DEEP LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS. SUSTAINED WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE...BUT EVEN WITHOUT WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE...IT IS LIKELY TO SEE FREQUENT GUST TO GALE FORCE AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS RELATIVELY WARMER GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 14 FT IN THE NE GULF TONIGHT INTO TUE. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE FROM W TO E TUE THROUGH WED AS NEW HIGH PRES OVER TEXAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS SE INTO THE NW GULF TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THIS HIGH CENTER SHIFTS TO THE CENTRAL PORTION BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON...THEN OFF TO THE NE OVER SE GEORGIA BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW... EXCEPT IN THE SE PORTION WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E FLOW WILL PREVAIL.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

A FRONT REMAINS STALLED FROM EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. FRESH TO STRONG NW-N FLOW FOLLOWS THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA THROUGH TUE AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT COVERS THE BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK LIGHTING UP THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND AREA DOWNSTREAM TO 20-30 KT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALSO WILL COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN... ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF CENTRAL CUBA. MEANWHILE...FRESH TO STRONG NE-E FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE SE AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGING AND LOWER PRES OVER NORTHERN S AMERICA. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN AS WELL...AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS TO MINIMAL GALE WARNING FORCE JUST NW OF COLOMBIA THU NIGHT AND YET AGAIN ON FRI NIGHT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE PASS CONFIRMED STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE WATERS N OF 30N TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP LOW PRES AREA OFF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 33N71W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 31N67W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. GALE FORCE WINDS ALSO ARE NOTED OVER A BROAD AREA N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT. THE LOW PRES IS RAPIDLY LIFTING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE STRONG WINDS TO DIMINISH TODAY. HOWEVER VERY LARGE SEAS...AROUND 30 FT ALONG 31N WILL PROPAGATE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE BASIN. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH BELOW GALE WARNING FORCE BRIEFLY FROM W TO E LATE TODAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS FORECAST N OF 27N TONIGHT THROUGH TUE AS THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT DIVES INTO THE AREA. THAT NEXT FRONT WILL SHIFT E OF THE BASIN THU THROUGH THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES OVER THE SE U.S. BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
.AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TUE NIGHT.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. GALE WARNING TODAY. GALE WARNING TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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