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AGXX40 KNHC 140720
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
220 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure dominates the basin extending from W to E along 24N. Recent scatterometer as well as buoy and ship data show gentle to moderate winds around the high with seas of 1-3 ft across the basin.

A pre-frontal trough is forecast to slip S into the far northern Gulf waters through the day, with the actual cold front moving into the basin by early Fri morning. Northerly winds will rapidly increase to fresh to near gale force behind the front by sunrise Fri, then will increase to minimal gale force offshore of Mexico, reaching to offshore of Veracruz Fri night. Seas will build to 8-12 ft W of the front with the strong to gale force winds. The front will extend from near Tampa Bay, Florida to 25N95W to 19N95W by late Fri night with broad and week low pressure possibly developing along the boundary in the SW Gulf by early Sat.

The low is then forecast to move northward into the NW Gulf through Sat evening with SE-S flow on the eastern side of the low increasing to fresh to strong. The low will then move inland over eastern Texas through Sun morning, where it will then linger along with broad troughing over the coastal plain into early next week, while high pressure ridging halts in forward progress back into the Gulf.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

An old stationary front has dissipated into a remnant trough extending from eastern Cuba to western Jamaica to central Panama. Recent scatterometer data showed fresh to strong northerly flow within 180 nm W of the trough axis, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere W of the trough. Seas are 7-9 ft W of the trough where the strong winds are, and 3-6 ft mainly elsewhere W of the trough. Moderate to fresh trades are E of the trough across the remainder of the Caribbean, with 3-6 ft seas, highest S of 15N.

The troughing will linger through this coming night while gradually dissipating, finally allowing for the fresh to strong winds to diminish. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient will tighten beginning over the S central Caribbean where trades will increase to fresh to strong, highest NW of the Colombian coast where seas will build to 7-10 ft. The gradient will continue to strengthen through the weekend and gale force winds are forecast to pulse NW of the Colombian coast Fri night, Sat night, and Sun night. Seas will build to 8-14 ft in S central portions due to the gale and surrounding winds.

The fresh to strong trades will expand in coverage during the weekend into early next week, covering the entire central and SW Caribbean Sat night through Mon night, with plumes of fresh to strong winds also across the approach to the Windward Passage, in the lee of Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A cold front is stalling from 27N65W to central Cuba with high pressure ridging extending from the SE Gulf of Mexico to across the central Bahamas in the wake of the front. Scatterometer and surface observations indicate mainly gentle to moderate winds W of the front. Large northerly swell covers the NE waters, up to 8-14 ft which will decay through the day and upcoming night, with 4-7 ft elsewhere.

Winds will increase to fresh on the NW and N central waters as another weak frontal boundary moves by N of the area, with little impact initially to the waters S of 31N through Fri. The boundary is then forecast to drop S of 31N Fri night through Sat, with winds increasing to fresh to strong, and seas building to 8-10 ft N of 29N E of 77W.

High pressure will then build down from the N in the wake of the front, with ridging settling along 28N for the second half of the weekend into early next week. This should usher in fairly tranquil marine conditions across the basin for the start of next week.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Fri into Fri night.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Fri night.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning Fri night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.

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