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AGXX40 KNHC 231830
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
230 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front over the north central Gulf will stall out from the northeast Gulf to north central Gulf through tonight. Numerous showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds will continue within about 90 nm SE of the frontal boundary through tonight. A stronger cold front will enter the northwestern gulf late tonight, crossing the western Gulf early Wednesday before merging with the other dissipating boundary over the northeast Gulf by Wednesday night. The cold front will then cross Florida Thursday with the tail end of the front stalling out from the Florida Straits to the NE tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. The stalled front will then dissipate through Friday.

Strong southwesterly winds will develop early Wednesday east of the front over the northeastern gulf. As the stronger cold front merges with the existing front Wednesday, a new round of convection will develop along and east of the front. This convection is expected to contain numerous showers and thunderstorms as it crosses the east Gulf Wednesday into Wednesday night.

High pressure will build west over the Gulf Thursday and shift over the eastern Gulf Friday into Saturday.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

The E Pacific monsoon trough will continue to support showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean the next few days. A tropical wave is entering the western Caribbean and will continue to move west the next day or so, before losing its characteristics over central America later on Wednesday. Another tropical wave east of the southern Windward Islands will move into the SE Caribbean Wednesday and then cross the SE Caribbean through Friday.

High pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong east winds over the south central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras tonight. The high will slide east through Wednesday, as pressures lower over central and south America. This will cause the fresh to strong winds to expand in coverage northward across the central Caribbean Wednesday, persisting through Friday. The high will then flatten from west to east Friday night and Saturday, which will help to decrease the winds over the north central Caribbean, and bring a return to the fresh to strong east winds over the Gulf of Honduras.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Showers and thunderstorms as well as southwest winds will increase through tonight east of northern Florida well ahead of a cold front. The strong winds will expand east to near 70W through Wednesday north of 30N with seas building to near 8 ft. As the front crosses northern Florida Wednesday night, winds will increase to near gale force north of 29N, just east of a line of showers and thunderstorms that is expected to develop ahead of the front. Latest model guidance suggests that winds could reach gale force east of the front, just east of north Florida early Thursday. Will have to monitor this trend and ensure that this is not just associated with mesoscale convection.

The line of convection and trailing cold front will cross the waters just east of Florida early Thursday. The front will reach from near 31N72W to 26N79W Friday before weakening as it drifts east across the northeast zones through Friday night. High pressure will build east across the region Friday through Saturday night.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.

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