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AGXX40 KNHC 300513
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
113 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE NE GULF AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A NE-E-SE 5-10 KT WIND SHIFT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE TX COASTAL BEND WILL OVER TAKE THE TROUGH TODAY WITH THE FRONT REACHING FROM SW FL TO 24N86W THIS EVENING. A STRONGER AND DRIER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL GULF WATERS FRI EVENING...AND CONTINUE SE OF THE GULF EARLY EARLY SAT NIGHT. THE ARRAY OF GUIDANCE HAS COME IN CLOSE AGREEMENT OF THE NLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING ACROSS THE THE N-CENTRAL AND NE WATERS...THEN DIMINISHING TO N-NE 15-20 ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF ON SAT AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING 10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS AS EARLY AS LATE SAT NIGHT...WITH THESE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SPREADING E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY SUN EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN SUPPORTING SE 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE NE COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SE TX COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO LATE MON NIGHT. THE DIURNAL NE 15-20 KT FLOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON BOTH SUN AND MON EVENINGS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 19N64W HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 15.5N66W...BUT IS ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A NE-E-SE 5-10 KT WIND SHIFT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W-NW PASSING JUST N OF PUERTO RICO TODAY AND PASSING JUST N OF HISPANIOLA ON FRI WHILE DRAGGING THE TROUGH W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 16N. THEREAFTER THE ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE N- NE 5-10 KT FLOW WILL BE REINFORCED BEGINNING LATE FRI NIGHT BY A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL INCREASE THE N FLOW TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE YUCATAN BASIN. EXPECT THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W TO BE EXPERIENCING NE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE SUN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 67W FROM SUN NIGHT TO MON NIGHT WITH EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 25 KT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A FRONTAL TROUGH IS WASHING OUT ALONG 26N BETWEEN 55-65W. A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 19N64W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING N TO 23N66W WITH E-SE 20-25 KT/SEAS 8-12 FT WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE TROUGH AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W-NW PASSING JUST N OF PUERTO RICO TODAY AND PASSING JUST N OF HISPANIOLA ON FRI.

A NE-SW RIDGE FROM 31N70W TO PORT CANAVERAL IS SHIFTING SE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH MOVING OFF THE SE GA COAST AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SE ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE SE GA COAST ON FRI INITIALLY ACCOMPANIED BY NW 15 KT WINDS WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONT E MERGING WITH WHATEVER REMAINS OF ALL THE PREVIOUS BOUNDARIES... WITH A SINGLE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO SE FL AT SUNSET FRI.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE NLY FLOW TO 20-30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-11 FT BEHIND THE FRONT DURING FRI NIGHT WITH 30-35 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 17 FT DEVELOPING NEAR 31N76W LATE SAT MORNING. NOTING THAT ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS AGAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL...OTHER GUIDANCE HAS ALSO PICKED UP ON THE INCREASING CAA AND SUGGEST GALE CONDITIONS AS WELL. EXPECT THE AREA OF GALE WINDS TO SHIFT N OF 31N ON SUN EVENING. WILL MOVE THE FRONT TO PSN FROM 31N72W TO 23N80W LATE SAT...FROM 31N68W TO 21N76W EARLY SUN...THROUGH BERMUDA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SUN EVENING...WITH THE FRONT STALLING FROM 28N65W TO PUERTO RICO LATE MON.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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