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000
AGXX40 KNHC 100606
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
233 AM EST THU DEC 8 2016

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-High confidence.

Currently, a pair of stationary fronts cross the Gulf waters. One
reaches from southwest Florida to the southwest Gulf near 22N95W.
The other is along the north waters and extends from the Florida
Big Bend to 29N90W to near Brownsville Texas. Gentle to moderate
winds are noted across the Gulf region with seas generally under 4
ft. The weather pattern will change significantly early this
morning as a reinforcement of very cold and dry air will punch
into the northwest Gulf. The cold front will sweep southward
across the Gulf through early Friday, bringing gale force winds
down the coast of Mexico, and gusts to gale force over much of the
offshore Gulf waters west of 90W. Strong to near gale force
northeasterly winds are expected across much of the remainder of
the Gulf behind the front through Friday night. Winds and seas
will diminish very slowly Saturday and Saturday night across the
SW Gulf as the cold front sinks into the NW Caribbean. Marine
guidance continues to suggest gale force winds in the 35-45 kt
range and building seas of 18-19 ft across the SW Gulf with this
event. The next front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf Monday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

Fresh to strong trade winds persist across the south-central
Caribbean with 8 to 9 ft seas. Mainly fresh winds are noted across
the remainder of the east and central Caribbean with gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds over the western Caribbean. High
pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to support fresh
to strong trades over the waters of the central Caribbean,
especially north of the coast of Colombia through Friday night.
Early on Friday, a cold front will enter the northwest Caribbean
with fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas in the wake
of the front. Trades will increase further over the central and
eastern Caribbean this weekend as high pressure behind the front
builds across the western Atlantic. Expect 20 to 25 kt northeast
to east winds across the majority of the Caribbean Sea, with 25 to
30 kt winds just north of the coast of Colombia. As a result, seas
will build to 8 to 12 ft over a large portion of the central
Caribbean Saturday night into early Sunday morning. These strong
winds and large seas will likely persist through Monday.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A cold front extending from 30N65W to south Florida, will shift
east ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off the coast
of northeast Florida this morning. The stronger front will reach
from 31N66W to the Straits of Florida late Friday merging with
the old frontal boundary. Fresh to strong northwest winds are
expected in the wake of this second cold front starting early on
Friday. Strong high pressure north of this front will support a
broad area of strong winds and building seas east of the Bahamas
this weekend. Seas are forecast to build to 9-10 ft south of 27N
east of the Bahamas late on Saturday. These marine conditions will
persist on Sunday.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK...
Gale Warning tonight.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
Gale Warning today into Fri.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
Gale Warning tonight into Fri night.
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night into Sat.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

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