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000
AGXX40 KNHC 220735
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
235 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence.

A low pressure system centered Apalachicola Florida trails a cold
front southward across the eastern Gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Satellite imagery shows active convection east of the frontal
boundary, and buoy observations along with scatterometer data
indicate fresh southerly winds just ahead of the front and a
broad area of moderate to fresh NW winds west of the front. Seas
are generally 5-6 ft on either side of the boundary. The low and
its trailing front will move east-southeast across the Florida
Peninsula tonight. Strong southerly winds will develop east of
the front later today, and fresh to strong northwest winds behind
the front will move into the Yucatan channel this afternoon. A
second cold front will reach the Texas coast Friday and become
stationary across the southern Gulf along 22-23N by Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence.

A cold front moving into the Yucatan Channel this morning will
be accompanied by a sharp transition from moderate SSE winds to
fresh to strong NW winds. The gradient will tighten this morning
in the post-frontal flow across the northwest Caribbean. The
front will stall and gradually dissipate Thursday through Friday.
Low pressure north of the area will induce light to gentle winds
across most of the reaminder of the area through Friday, with the
trade winds and stronger nocturnal flow near the coast of South
America gradually returning to the Caribbean basin from east to
west this weekend.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence.

High pressure is building southward across the SW North Atlantic
behind a deepening low pressure system east of the area centered
near 35N56W. A second low pressure system in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico will move across the Florida peninsula tonight and create
a very tight pressure gradient between high pressure centered
near 35N71W and the low over Florida, and support gale force
southeast winds along the warm front northeast of the low center.
Expect 30-35 kt winds to develop Thursday afternoon in a broad
band northeast of the Bahamas as the low moves back over water
near Grand Bahama, and persist northeast of the low center as it
tracks northeastward through Friday evening. A gale warning is in
effect for forecast waters northeast of the Bahamas. Also expect
vigorous convection including scattered thunderstorms in the area
of high winds. Marine weather conditions will improve from SW to
NE across the area Friday through Saturday once the low pressure
system exits stage north on Saturday.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
Gale Warning Thu into Thu night.
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
Gale Warning Thu night.
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
Gale Warning Thu into Thu night.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.

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