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AGXX40 KNHC 250605
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 2 FT OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. A THERMAL TROUGH MOVING WEST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN EACH NIGHT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN LOW TO MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 57W WILL CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY...AND REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON TUESDAY. WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEARING 35W THAT IS RAPIDLY CROSSING THE ATLANTIC AT AROUND 20 KT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE...THEN STRENGTHENING THE LOW AS IT CROSSES EAST TO WEST OVER THE CARIBBEAN LATER THIS WEEK. UNTIL THIS LOW ACTUALLY BEGINS TO ORGANIZE FURTHER...THE CONFIDENCE OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW TO MEDIUM. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE SPREADS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 10 FT ALONG THIS WAVE/LOW AS IT CROSSES OUR TROPICAL ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LESSER ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY NEED ADJUSTMENTS AS TIME PROGRESSES.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL STORM KARL IS ACCELERATING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEST OF KARL WILL SAG S OF 30N MONDAY OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...THEN SHIFT EAST OF OUR REGION BY TUESDAY. A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF OUR NORTHERNMOST WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE EXPECT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH MID- WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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