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AGXX40 KNHC 130731
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N89W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING BASIN. RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS IN THE SE GULF...MODERATE TO FRESH W WINDS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT ALONG THE N GULF COAST WILL SINK INTO THE N GULF THIS MORNING...THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...REACHING FROM THE TEXAS COAST TO SOUTH FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND FROM NORTHERN CUBA TO TX-LA BORDER SUN AFTERNOON WHILE BECOMING DIFFUSE. MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF MON NIGHT THEN BECOME STATIONARY OVER NE WATERS AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW REMAINS FAR N OF THE AREA. THIS SCENARIO IS MUCH WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT CONSENSUS IS BETTER.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK STATIONARY FRONT FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR HONDURAS NICARAGUA BORDER WILL BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY...BUT HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A FRONT MOVING SOUTHARD IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE WIND WARD PASSAGE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ASCAT DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS SW OF CUBA. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES 30 KT WINDS WILL PREVAIL NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH MINIMAL GALE WARNING FORCE BETWEEN 03Z-09Z THROUGH MON NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHRE...INCLUDING THE TROPICAL N ATLC.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

STATIONARY FRONT OVER SE WATERS WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MODERATE E-NE WINDS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ASCAT ALSO SHOWED VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS IN NRN WATERS BETWEEN 70W-80W ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW N OF THE AREA. 30-35 KT WINDS WERE INDICATED N OF 30N WITH GALE FORCE WINDS JUST N OF 31N. THE LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NE TODAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN WATERS TO EXTEND FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...FROM 30N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT...FROM 26N65W TO N CUBA SUN THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM 25N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA SUN NIGHT AND MON. STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN TRADE WINDS S OF 28N SUN AND MON. SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...SHOWING DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER N ALONG THE US EASTERN SEABOARD TUE AND TUE NIGHT. AS A RESULT... DO NOT EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO REACH GALE WARNING FORCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DELAY MOVING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA UNTIL WED...A CONSEQUENCE OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW FARTHER N.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING SUN NIGHT INTO MON. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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