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AGXX40 KNHC 271746
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
146 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH A GLOBAL MODEL BLEND FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED LATEST TAFB-NWPS WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OBSERVATIONS IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SHOWED WINDS AS HIGH AS 25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT THIS MORNING. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF THROUGH THE SW GULF. THE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GENERATING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE NW GULF WILL SHIFT N THROUGH TONIGHT...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND THE WINDS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE DISRUPTED BY TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW N ATLC AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NW. NEW HIGH PRES WILL FORM IN THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR THE SE COAST OF LOUISIANA SUN AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE DIURNAL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING SHIFTING OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH A GLOBAL MODEL BLEND FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED LATEST TAFB-NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W-65W WILL TRACK W...CROSSING 70W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...80W SUN AND MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY TUE MORNING. A SECOND WAVE ALONG 52W WILL CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT...70W EARLY MON...AND MOVE INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN BY TUE NIGHT. AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX CHANGE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES. OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING LOCATED IN THE SW N ATLC CONTINUES TO DISRUPT CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING. LOW PRES TYPICALLY FOUND OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL ALSO BE WEAKER THAN NORMAL FURTHER HELPING TO KEEP A WEAK PATTERN. AS A RESULT...MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXCEPT LIGHT TO GENTLE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...EXCEPT 4-7 FT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE...AND 1-3 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE WEAKEST WINDS WILL BE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH A GLOBAL MODEL BLEND FOR WINDS WITH MANUAL EDITS FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED LATEST TAFB- NWPS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 28N73W AT 12Z IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND POSSIBLY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW WHERE WINDS ARE ALREADY TO 30 KT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ANTICIPATED ON THIS SIDE OF LOW DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE N AND NE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNDER FORECASTING THE WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. THE LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY WERE COORDINATED WITH THE HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 15 FT ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PASSES N OF THE FORECAST AREA. WAVE GRIDS WERE BUMPED UP ACCORDINGLY TO MATCH THE WINDS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW AND APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WATERS E OF 70W MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG IT. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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