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AGXX40 KNHC 241913
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
313 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY ALONG THE N AND NW COASTS OF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS...AND ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF ACCOMPANIED BY 2-3 FT SEAS. THE TROUGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY NEAR 22N94W BY LATE EACH MORNING.

A SURFACE HIGH IS SHIFTING NORTH OF OUR AREA. A RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN FROM THE HIGH CENTER NORTH OF THE GULF TO NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES OVER THE EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRES CURRENTLY NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS APPROACHES THE FL COAST...AND MAY EVENTUALLY REACH THE EASTERN GULF LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR 18N65W ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. DEEP CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY HAS DISSIPATED...LEAVING A ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM PUERTO RICO TO JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. EARLIER AIRCRAFT RECON TOOK SEVERAL MEASUREMENTS OF STORM FORCE SURFACE WINDS...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS SCATTEROMETER DATA SUPPORTED A LARGER AREA OF GALE WINDS TO ABOUT 90 NM NORTHEAST FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. BASED ON THESE DATA...AND THE LACK OF A CONFIRMED CLOSED CIRCULATION...A STORM WARNING IS BEING ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON...LASTING 12 HOURS. THESE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 40 TO 45 KT LATE TONIGHT. AT THAT TIME...THESE WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. FRESH TRADES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THURSDAY...WITH THESE FRESH CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GASTON IS EXPECTED TO PASS E OF THE AREA...BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 18N E OF 57W ON FRI.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LOW CONFIDENCE.

FRESH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FIONA NEAR 27N67W WILL SHIFT NW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 25-29N BETWEEN 65-71W THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING.

A TROPICAL LOW IS CURRENTLY SE OF THE AREA NEAR 18N65W ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS NOT SHOWN PERSISTENT ORGANIZATION...BUT CONDITIONS FAVOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW AND WAVE CONTINUE NW PASSING N OF PUERTO RICO LATE TODAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE SECTION ABOVE...STORM CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITHIN 90 NM NE OF THE LOW CENTER UNTIL 0600 UTC TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS THE LOW TRACKS NW TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE NE QUADRANT. THE LOW...OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...WILL CONTINUE NW THROUGH THE BAHAMA CHAIN THIS WEEK REACHING NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS ON SUN...AND POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

THE W PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GASTON WILL PASS THROUGH THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 55-60W BEGINNING ON FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT AMZ115 ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... GALE WARNING TODAY.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... GALE WARNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... GALE WARNING THU INTO FRI. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI.
.AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING THU.
.AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... GALE WARNING THU.
.AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GALE WARNING THU.
.AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... STORM WARNING TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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