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AGXX40 KNHC 231719
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
119 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF LATEST GLOBAL WAVE MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RIDGING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING AND MOVE WEST OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SUPPORTING LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH JUST EAST OF FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND WHILE WEAKENING. A WEAK DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WILL EXIT THE BASIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MAY BRING ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF LATEST GLOBAL WAVE MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND PASSING TROPICAL WAVES. MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL EXIT THE BASIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE INTO THE EASTERN ZONES WEST OF 55W UNTIL MONDAY. THIS WAVE WILL CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ON TUESDAY.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF LATEST GLOBAL WAVE MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF FLORIDA WILL DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND. A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 30N63W WILL DRIFT WESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATE SUNDAY AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...REPLACED BY A BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD WESTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DISSIPATING TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK.

THE CURRENT WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FT N OF 23N. SOUTH OF 23N...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND 4 TO 5 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA WHICH ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG EACH EVENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS TO THE N OF 23N WILL BECOME MODERATE E TO SE...EXCEPT LIGHT TO GENTLE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES 113 AND 115 NEAR THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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