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AGXX40 KNHC 030826
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
426 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

RIDGE EXTENDING FROM W ATLC ACROSS THE NE GULF CONTINUES TO RETRACT EWD AS A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE NW WATERS. DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING ACROSS AN ELONGATED SWATH E OF FRONT ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NW CENTRAL WATERS AGAIN THIS MORNING...BUT VSBYS MAINLY 5 NM AND HIGHER ATTM. FRONT IS ANALYZED AT 06Z FROM JUST SE OF NEW ORLEANS SW TO 25N95W THEN SSW TO S OF TUXPAN MEXICO. HOWEVER...OBS AND STLT IMAGERY SUGGEST TRUE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIGHT BE A BIT FARTHER BACK TO THE NW ACROSS LOUISIANA AND NW GULF WHERE DENSE CLOUD DECK RESIDES FROM BATON ROUGE TO ALEXANDRIA INTO NW GULF. FRESH NLY WINDS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BEHIND THIS SECONDARY BOUNDARY OFF THE TEXAS COAST. ASCAT DATA NOT AVAILABLE TONIGHT AND THIS MORNING AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. FRESH NLY FLOW HAS SPREAD DOWN THE MEXICAN COAST BEHIND FRONT WITH SEAS 5-7 FT AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 8 FT OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BUT STILL PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF OVER NEXT FEW DAYS. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH AL-FL BORDER TO JUST S OF VERACRUZ BY 00Z THIS EVENING...SANIBEL ISLAND TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WED EVENING... THEN SE OF BASIN WED NIGHT. DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SSE INTO MID ATLC STATE WED THROUGH FRI WILL SUPPORT A TERTIARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE NE GULF THU NIGHT AND PRODUCE A SURGE OF 20+ KT NWLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF NE PORTIONS AT THAT TIME AND KEEP SEAS 5-6 FT THERE. AS THIS DEVELOPS...A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE TO THE TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT AND MEANDER IN THAT VICINITY THROUGH THU WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ESE TO THE FL STRAITS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA ON THU NIGHT WITH A N-S RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 91W SETTING UP MODERATE- FRESH SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF W OF THE RIDGE ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT. THE LOCALIZED LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF FRESH NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL RESUME ON SAT AFTERNOON AS WINDS ACROSS S PORTIONS VEER AROUND TO NE TO E.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

FRESH SE TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM OFFSHORE OF VENEZUELA TO CENTRAL PORTIONS...WHERE SEAS REMAIN 5-7 FT WITH MAX TO 8 FT POSSIBLE INVOF OF 15N73W. NOCTURNAL MAX TO ONLY 20 KT FORECAST BY MODELS ATTM ALONG N COAST OF HONDURAS AND BAY ISLANDS. THE PRES GRADIENT FROM ATLC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY RELAX NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE E TO ESE FLOW DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 75W LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GULFMEX COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS WED NIGHT-EARLY THU...AND REACH FROM NEAR LA HABANA TO TULUM MEXICO BY 12Z THU AND E CENTRAL CUBA TO NW GULF OF HONDURAS BY 12Z FRI...REACHING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SAT MORNING TO NE COASTAL NICARAGUA...WHERE NLY WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL SPILL DOWN THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEAR 20 KT WINDS SPREADING ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT THU THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING 4-6 FT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1023 MB HIGH NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT S THROUGH THE BAHAMAS NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF GULFMEX COLD FRONT WHILE HIGH SHIFTS NE INTO CENTRAL ATLC. SLY FLOW 15-20 KT ACROSS W PORTIONS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO S TO SW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND INCREASE TO 20-25 NW WATERS WED MORNING AHEAD OF FRONT. FROM TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS MIDDAY WED WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY OFF CAPE HATTERAS WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST LINES OF ACTIVE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONT WED AND WED NIGHT ACROSS NW AND N WATERS...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF SW WINDS 25-30 KT POSSIBLE AS INFLOW INTO THIS CNVTN. FRONT TO REACH FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THU EVENING AS NWLY WINDS 20-25 KT DEVELOP LATE IN DAY THU ACROSS NW WATERS...AND MAINLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE BEHIND FRONT. FRONT TO CONTINUE SLOWLY ESE INTO WEEKEND...REACHING BERMUDA TO NW HAITI BY SAT EVENING. STRONG NW SURGE WELL BEHIND FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI TO DIMINISH BY LATE FRI AND SAT FOR ONLY MODEST WAVE GROWTH BEHIND FRONT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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