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AGXX40 KNHC 021834
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
134 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST E TO SE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. THE HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVELS ARE IN THE NW GULF...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S...SUPPORTING AREAS OF FOG WITH SOME OFFSHORE PLATFORMS REPORTING DENSE FOG. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE TEXAS COAST CURRENTLY WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT...ALLOWING THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF TUE.

THE APPROACH OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUE INTO WED WILL STRENGTHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PUSH IT BACK INTO THE GULF LATE WED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERLY WINDS REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF BY LATE WED/EARLY THU...WITH UKMET SLIGHTLY LATER WITH THE ONSET THAN THE OTHER MODELS. FUNNELING WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE ALSO STILL FORECAST FOR THU AND THU NIGHT ALONG THE TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ COASTS.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE THU. THIS WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLS FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE FAR SW GULF BY THU NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH SAT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF N OF THE DYING BOUNDARY...WITH STRONG N TO NE WINDS PERSISTING ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST RAPIDSCAT AND ASCAT DATA SHOW WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAILING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SHIP PDWZ INDICATED WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST BETWEEN CARTAGENA AND BARRANQUILLA AT 12 UTC. ELSEWHERE FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...7-10 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...5-6 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 7-10 FT ON NE SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO GALE WARNING FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH FRI. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK N OF THE AREA AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. NE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST APPEARS TO BE STARTING TO MOVE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TRADES S OF 22N TO THE N OF HISPANIOLA AND SPREADING INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...6-7 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND 1-3 FT RANGE W OF THE BAHAMAS. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE FRONT RAPIDLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N AND E OF THE AREA TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE RETREATING EASTWARD AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THU AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL W OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT OVER THE NW WATERS BY WEEKS END.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU.
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO FRI.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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