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AGXX40 KNHC 190718
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
218 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. A 1014 MB LOW PRES IS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 27N98W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N94W TO 25N87W. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH- CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT MORNING AS THE LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH TEXAS TRACKS NE. THE LOW WILL REACH THE COAST OF SE LOUISIANA FRI NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ORLEANS TO NEAR TAMPICO SAT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SAT WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO ENTER THE NW GULF TUE MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO 25-30 KT AS IT REACHES FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. THEN...THE FRONT WILL EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY TUE NIGHT. WINDS MAY REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE SW GULF TUE EVENING AND NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE GFES PROBABILITIES REACH 20 PERCENT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN EARLIER ASCAT PASSES PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...JUST SOUTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF A TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N84W TO 15N83W TO 12N83W. THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE JUST N OF THE BASIN AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PULSE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING INTO A RANGE OF 8-10 FT. EXPECT INCREASING TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH ALONG 60W.

EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT. SEAS MAY REACH 8 FT WITH NE SWELL ACROSS ZONE AMZ037 ON MON.


...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATE TODAY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT BASED ON BUOYS AND FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS. WINDS INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE N OF AREA ON MON. A LOW PRES AREA MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MON WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN NW WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN DRAG A WEAK FRONT NORTH OF 30N TUE. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST REGION TUE NIGHT AND WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY EARLY WED MORNING.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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