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AGXX40 KNHC 161841
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
241 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST AND PRESENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE GULF ALONG...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO 29N87W TO JUST S OF S CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING FURTHER AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN PART OF THE U.S. THE CONVECTION IS RACING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. BOTH BUOYS SGOF1 AT 29N85W AND 42036 AT 28.5N84.5W ARE REPORTING W TO NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. WILL MENTION HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN NEAR SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY FOR IMPACTED ZONES IN OFFNT4 PRODUCT. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE THROUGH WED NIGHT...WHILE THE COLD FRONT BEHIND IT SAGS SOUTHWARD REACHING THE VICINITY OF THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND S CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THU FRI WHILE DISSIPATING. S OF THESE FEATURES...HIGH PRES OF 1020 MB OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF NEAR 27N83W WILL SLIDE S THROUGH WED NIGHT WHILE ALSO WEAKENING...AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY LATE THU.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH CONTINUING OVER THE FAR NW AND W CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR 24N96W SE TO INLAND MEXICO AT 19N95W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. E TO SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE E OF THE TROUGH TO 91W. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH INLAND THE MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS BASIN-WIDE...AND PRIMARILY 1-3 FT SEAS...OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 3-5 FT NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHEN WINDS INCREASE TO LOCALLY FRESH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH SMALL BLEND OF NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE S OF A MID/UPPER THAT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS E OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS... COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO NEAR 76W. IN ADDITION...AND ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH BRANCH THAT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN PACIFIC TO SW CARIBBEAN IS ADDING TO THE ALREADY PRESENT INSTABILITY S OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH.

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...LITTLE VARIANCE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED...EXCEPT GENTLE IN THE LEE OF CUBA...AND LOCALLY FRESH IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6 FT NEAR THE FRESH WINDS AND MAINLY 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND IN THE FAR E CARIBBEAN NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. NE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WARNING EDOUARD WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NE ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SAT. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 51W S OF 20N HAS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 20 KT. THIS WILL WAVE WILL ENTER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THOSE WATERS WED...THEN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE WAVE PASSAGE... OTHERWISE ONLY A BRIEF WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED. SEAS AT 5-7 FT ARE PARTIALLY CONTRIBUTED BY LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE WARNING EDOUARD. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5-7 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO 4 TO 5 FT PRIMARILY IN A NEW SWELL SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE RELATED TO COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS/SEAS.

THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 28N74W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE TO THE N OF HURRICANE EDOUARD LOCATED NE OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS AREA NEAR 31.1N 57.8W AT 1500 UTC. RECENT ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH BUOY DATA SHOW GENTLE WINDS N OF 27N...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS W OF 71W...INCREASINGLY HIGHER SEAS FROM W TO E...UP TO 9 FT ALONG 65W...DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WARNING EDOUARD. MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS ARE S OF 27N EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ALONG WITH 3-6 FT SEAS W OF 70W...AND 6-9 FT E OF 70W. THE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

THE RIDGING WILL SLOWLY SINK SSE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DIP INTO THE NW WATERS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NW OF THE AREA...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION ON WED. WEAK LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM JUST NE OF THE NE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 31N ON WED PER MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS ON WED...AND RACE ENE DRAGGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THU. SW WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS BACK UP TO 5-7 FT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE E-SE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI EVENING...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT TROUGH WHICH WILL THEN DRIFT BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS FLORIDA FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SUN.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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