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AGXX40 KNHC 190657
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
257 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A thermal trough will develop each night over the northwest Yucatan peninsula, then move across the far southwest Gulf before dissipating by mid morning, supporting locally fresh winds and seas briefly reaching 4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere across the Gulf, weak ridging over the lower Mississippi Valley will support gentle to moderate easterly flow across the Gulf through late Fri with seas generally 1 to 3 ft.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

Hurricane Maria is moving into the far northeast Caribbean, after recently crossing over Dominica. Maria is still on track to directly affect the Leeward Islands, the NE Caribbean, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico with seas in excess of 35 ft during the next two days as a major hurricane. Interests in these areas should monitor the latest bulletins from the National Hurricane Center. Strong winds and swell will push into the Windward Passage late Wed and Thu as Maria moves to the north of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, generally moderate trade winds across the Caribbean will persist through the next several days.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Buoy observations indicate seas of 8 to 10 ft over the waters north of 27N, on the southern periphery of Hurricane Jose, now well north of the area to the east of Cape Hatteras. Seas to 8 ft will persist through late today, then diminish as Jose continues farther north. Unfortunately, the respite in winds and seas for these waters will be short lived. Attention turns to the next hurricane, Maria, forecast to bring hurricane conditions to the Atlc waters between the Leeward Islands and 22N tonight into early Tue. The forecast continues for hurricane conditions to arrive in the waters adjacent to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico starting late today, then continue WNW with hurricane conditions possible for the Turks/Caicos and southern Bahamas by late Thu. Afterward, the forecast calls for Maria to turn toward the north into a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by the slow departure of Jose. This forecast scenario takes Maria on a more northward track so it stays just east of the central and northern Bahamas. Given that track and intensity errors increase farther into the future, marine interests throughout the region should continue monitoring the latest bulletins issued by the National Hurricane Center on Hurricane Maria.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W... Hurricane Warning Tue into Tue night. Tropical Storm Warning Wed into Wed night.
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... Hurricane Warning tonight into Tue night. Tropical Storm Warning Wed.
.AMZ035...OFFSHORE WATERS WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO... Tropical Storm Warning tonight into Tue.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... Tropical Storm Warning Wed into Wed night.
.AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... Tropical Storm Warning Wed.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.

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