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AGXX40 KNHC 251637
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1237 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW FL TO THE NE TX COAST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TO A POSITION FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE TX COASTAL BEND LATE TONIGHT...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A HIGH PRES CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE PERIOD AS A N-S ORIENTATED HEAT TROUGH FORMS OVER THE FL PENINSULA.

THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 23N TILL THIS EVENING WHEN THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT OFFSHORE THE SE TX COAST AND THE NE MEXICAN COAST THROUGH MON. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE SW-W FLOW WELL N OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF MAY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE. EXPECTING AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP EACH MORNING OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...SHIFT W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH AFTERNOON...AND THEN LOSE IDENTITY BY THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECTING NE-E 10 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N EXCEPT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE W AT ABOUT 18 KT PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON SAT AND SUN. AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS MOVING W IN PHASE WITH THE LOWER LEVEL WAVE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR 14N65W. BKN TO LOCALLY OVC LOW-MID CLOUDS ARE NOTED E OF THE WAVE TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING WITH EMBEDDED RW/TS...THUS HAVE DENOTED ISOL TS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND SAT...PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN...PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUN REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN ON MON AND TUE. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS S OF 12N EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD W ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN ON SAT AND IS REFLECTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR E ATLC WILL REACH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON MON-TUE.

STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF NEAR GALE CONDITIONS MOST EVENINGS OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. MAY SEE THE AFFECTED AREA SHRINK SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W OF THE CARIBBEAN. FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM 29N55W TO CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT FLOW EXPECTED N OF THE RIDGE TILL LATE SUN. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUN NIGHT PRODUCING 15-20 KT SW FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT MOVING SLOWLY OFF THE SE GA COAST LATE MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM NEAR 31N77W TO PORT CANAVERAL BY MID WEEK. EASTERLY TRADES BETWEEN 22N AND THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN MOSTLY 5-10 KT CONDITIONS FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT EASTERLY TRADES AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT EACH THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS AND AGAIN SAT EVENING THROUGH EARLY NIGHT HOURS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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