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AGXX40 KNHC 271828
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
128 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE SE GULF ALONG WITH 8-10 FT SEAS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING VERY DRY AIR PRESENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. WINDS ARE NORTHERLY AT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH LEVELS OUTSIDE OF THE SE GULF WITH SEAS PROGRESSIVELY LOWER FROM THE SE PORTION TO THE NW. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS IN THE NE GULF BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE SE GULF TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SAT MORNING WHILE SE RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE NW GULF AROUND THE HIGH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH RETURN FLOW THEN DOMINATING THE BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN AND NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE SEAS MAY LOCALLY BUILD TO 8-9 FT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BOUNDARY MAINLY S OF 20N WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS INDICATED BY AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASS. NEARBY BUOY AND ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED SEAS UP TO 12 FT AND THEY MAY BE EVEN HIGHER IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM 20N77W TO 15N83W BY FRI WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY SUN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS...EXCEPT LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 9 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THE STRONGEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE BASIN SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 11 FT. WINDS MAY EVEN APPROACH GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE WITH THE STRONGEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.


...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH A THIN BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT AND THE TWO BOUNDARIES WILL MERGE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS BY FRI. WINDS MAY BE BRIEFLY NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG 31N BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 31N. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT INTO FRI.

THE COMBINED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N64W TO 27N67W TO 21N76W FRI MORNING...FROM 31N55W TO 25N65W TO 20N74W SAT MORNING... PUSHING MAINLY E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY SAT NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN TAIL WILL STALL FROM 24N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E FLOW S OF 27N SUN THROUGH MON...EXPANDING N OF 27N FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN 7-10 FT SEAS ACROSS ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ017...GULF OF HONDURAS... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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