Home


000
AGXX40 KNHC 191925
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
225 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front is moving across the Gulf of Mexico currently, reaching from near Tampa Florida to near Tampico Mexico. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed winds to gale force follow the front off the coast of southern Tamaulipas and Tampico. Winds will increase soon off Veracruz as the front moves farther south later today, with seas building to at least 13 ft. The front will continue south overnight, reaching from the Florida Keys/Straits of Florida to the southwest Gulf early Mon where it will stall and start to weaken. High pressure north of the region shifts rapidly eastward through the Carolinas allowing the winds and seas over the Gulf to diminish through late Mon.

A surface trough is expected to develop toward mid week over the eastern Gulf as a sharp upper trough digs into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf. A reinforcing upper disturbance will move into the western Gulf by Wed, allowing the trough to deepen into a low pressure area, and ushering in another cold front and round of strong northerly winds over the western Gulf late Wed into Thu. There is still some uncertainty regarding the likelihood of gales off the coast of Mexico at that time, and the official forecast currently calls for 30 kt winds. This may be upgraded to a gale warning if trends in global models persist. The low pressure over the eastern Gulf will lift NE across Florida allowing the front to push into the SE Gulf through Fri.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

1009 mb surface low persists over the central Caribbean, with scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing over the northeast Caribbean and along a surface trough reaching from Puerto Rico to north of the Leeward Islands. Fresh NE winds are noted in the Windward Passage between the low pressure and high pressure N of the area. Winds will diminish over the region as high pressure north of the area weakens, and seas will remain 2 to 4 ft. The weak pressure gradient should remain in place over the Caribbean until Thu, when a cold front will enter the NW Caribbean from the Gulf of Mexico, then stalling over the NW Caribbean Fri.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Fresh to strong SW winds are ongoing N of 30N between 70W and 75W, and the southern edge of a trough pivoting north of the area. Elsewhere a ridge extends from 1018 mb high pressure over the central Atlantic to near the northern Bahamas is generally maintaining moderate winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in NE swell over the forecast waters S of 28N. The winds and seas will diminish through tonight as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. The trough will linger over southeast waters this weekend, then weaken Monday. A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast this afternoon, extend from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Mon, before stalling Tue and lifting northward again through mid week. A second front will move off the NE Florida coast Wed, associated with a low pressure area moving from the eastern Gulf NE across northern Florida to off the Carolinas through Fri.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today into tonight.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.

Home