Home


000
AGXX40 KNHC 211740
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
140 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level low is located in the central Gulf near 25N89W, while a weak surface trough is just to the E extending along 86W from 25N to 28N. These features may result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as they continue to shift W across the basin through Tue. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate E to SE flow prevails across the basin, except locally fresh near the Straits of Florida. Seas are 1 to 3 ft, except 3 to 5 ft near the Straits of Florida.

Winds will gradually diminish to light to gentle by Tue afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens, except in the S central and SW Gulf where the remnants of Harvey will draw closer. The remnants of Harvey currently in the NW Caribbean will near the Caribbean coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Tue morning, moving across the peninsula thereafter. The remnants are forecast to emerge into the SW Gulf early Wed, then move NW toward eastern Mexico through the end of the week. There is the possibility that the remnants could redevelop into a tropical cyclone as it moves across the SW Gulf where conditions are expected to be favorable.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

The remnants of former tropical cyclone Harvey are in the NW Caribbean approaching with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms N of 15N W of 79W. Currently there is not a defined low level circulation, however fresh to strong E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are accompanying the feature. The remnants are forecast to be near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Tue morning, moving inland thereafter. The remnants still have the potential to redevelop into a tropical cyclone prior to reaching the Yucatan Peninsula. Regardless, squalls with very heavy rainfall will continue to spread across Nicaragua, Honduras, and then the Yucatan Peninsula.

Elsewhere across the basin, moderate to fresh trades prevail along with mainly 4 to 6 ft seas, except 1 to 3 ft near the Mona Passage as well as in the SW Caribbean. A tropical wave is moving from the Tropical N Atlantic and across the E Caribbean islands. Winds are forecast to increase in the wake of the tropical wave, especially in the S central portion where trades will pulse to fresh to strong building seas to 8 ft through the end of the week.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A strong surface trough is moving across the central portion of the basin with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms accompanying it, along with fresh winds and seas to 8 ft. The trough and this activity will continue to move W across the central and W Bahamas through Tue, moving across the Florida Peninsula thereafter.

A weak ridge will build down from the N in the wake of the trough by mid-week, while model guidance also indicates a weak low dropping into the NE portion as well with only weak winds near it. The weak low will gradually dissipate through Thu with move pronounced ridging building across the basin by the end of the week.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.

Home