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AGXX40 KNHC 151935
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
235 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of early this afternoon, a cold front extends from NE Fl southwestward to over Apalachee bay and continues to 27N92W to inland Mexico just N of Tampico. Strong high pres is NW of the front. Both buoy and oil platform observations show fresh to strong NE winds NW of the front W of 92W, and fresh N to NE winds E of 92W. Seas have build to 8-11 ft within 120 nm of the front between 92W-94W and to 6-8 ft elswhere over the NW Gulf. The cold front is on track to reach a position from near Cedar Key Florida to 26N92W to 20N96W early this evening. Northerly winds will rapidly increase to strong to near gale force during this afternoon surging southward to the waters within 60 nm of Veracruz tonight. Seas are forecast to build to 9-14 ft W of the front tonight S of 24N and to 8-12 ft elsewhere W of the front S of 25N.

The front will stall from near Tampa Bay FL to 26N92W to 19N95W by late tonight, with models suggesting that broad and weak low pressure possibly developing along the boundary in the SW Gulf by early Sat, then move northward into the NW Gulf through Sat evening with SE-S flow on the eastern side of the low increasing to fresh to strong. The low will then move inland over eastern Texas Sun morning, where it will then linger along with broad troughing over the coastal plain into early next week. Atlc high pressure that ridges westward across the area will keep the trough confined to along the Tx. and SW La. coast through late Mon. Past few model runs indicate that a weak cold front will merge with the trough as it moves offshore the Tx. coast on Mon., and across the NW Gulf on Tue., with the ECMWF being the slowest of the solutions in depicting the front to enter the NW Gulf on Wed. For this forecast, I am leaning towards consensus of the models for timing of the front.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

A frontal trough along and just inland the coasts of NE Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica will dissipate tonight. Meanwhile, high pressure will build north of the region this weekend, and strengthen the gradient across the central Caribbean, where highest winds will reach minimal gale each night through Tue. Winds will diminish slightly to 25-30 kt during the day. Seas will build to 10-14 ft near the coast of Colombia.

The fresh to strong trades will expand in coverage during the weekend through Mon. night. These winds will then become more confined to the central Caribbean Tue. through Wed. night. Plumes of fresh to strong NE to E winds will develop to the lee of Cuba and through and near the Windward Passage beginning late Saturday night and diminish some on Tuesday and to 15-20 kt on Wed.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A cold front has transitioned to a broad trough that extends across the basin from 23N65W to E central Cuba. Relatively weak high pressure is behind the front. Scatterometer and surface observations indicate mainly gentle to moderate winds W of the trough. Large northerly swell to 12 ft covering the NE waters, will decay through tonight, with seas of 4-7 ft elsewhere.

The Ascat pass from 1506Z this morning showed mostly fresh SW winds N of 29N. These winds are in advance of a broad area of strong SW-W winds that are presently N of the area ahead of a cold front. The southern extent of this cold front will brush the northern waters tonight through Saturday preceded by SW winds and followed by strong W-NW winds and seas of 8-10 ft on either side of it. These conditions are expected to be to the N of about 30N and E of 77W. By Sunday afternoon, northerly fresh winds will be over the eastern portion of zone AMZ115, with seas of 6-8 ft in subsiding swell. These winds diminish to mostly moderate in category late Sun. night into Mon. Strong high pressure will then build behind this front, with ridging settling along 28N through Tue. ushering in fairly tranquil marine conditions across the entire basin. Models show that the ridge then shifts southward to near 27N Tue. night and to near 26N on Wed. as yet another cold front brushes the far northern waters. This front will be preceded by strong SW winds and seas of around 8-10 ft. Presently, it appears that northerly winds behind it will be mostly in the moderate range, but this may possibly trend upwards in future guidance.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning W of 96W through tonight.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning W of 96W tonight.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. Gale Warning Sat night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.

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