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AGXX40 KNHC 271841
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
241 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front continues across the NE Gulf coastal waters, this afternoon, from inland NE Florida to SE Louisiana. Expect the boundary to drift S across the FL coastal waters through tomorrow morning, before dissipating. Elsewhere light to gentle E to SE winds prevail across most of the basin except far SW sections, where an inverted trough is developing along the Mexican coast and yielding moderate S to SE winds between far SE TX and Veracruz. Slight seas prevail at 1-3 ft with possible isolated areas to 4 ft W portions.

Only slight changes in conditions expected next 24 hours as inverted trough persists along the Mexican coast and coastal waters. A frontal system moving into the Great Plains will combine with high pres moving to the Ern seaboard to produce moderate to fresh return flow across most of the basin on Wed and then gradually strengthen to fresh to locally strong Thu night into Fri as the frontal system moves SE into the TX Panhandle. Seas to increase to 4-6 ft during this time, with Yucatan diurnal thermal trough yielding strong winds across N and NW peninsula waters, with potential to increase seas briefly to 7 ft. Somewhat similar conditions to continue into the weekend as a weak high settles into the far NE Gulf and the frontal boundary retreats nwd into the Central Plains.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

Modest Atlc ridge continues from central Atlc to NW Bahamas and yielding modest pres gradient across the basin this afternoon. Mid summer pattern appears entrenched attm with series of tropical waves moving W through the basin separated by SAL and fair weather in between. A tropical wave is entering the W Carib along 77W/78W, with the best moisture behind the wave and flaring up with sct cnvtn S of Windward Passage and S of Jamaica, to 14N/15N, and fresh SE winds and seas 7-8 ft N of 16N and just behind wave axis. The next broad wave is approaching the Tropical N Atlc waters attm, and has a secondary perturbation trailing in invof 49W. Active cnvtn is expected to accompany this wave generally S of 13N as it move W through basin next few days. Broad area of SAL and some zones of significant dust will be moving into Carib ahead and across the top of this wave during the next 36 hours. ENE winds around 20 kt to accompany this wave with E to SE winds around 15 kt behind it. An area of 7-9 ft seas also depicted by recent altimeter passes within the fresh ENE winds and will shift W and hit the islands tonight through Wed. Slight SE shift of Atlc ridge by tonight expected to produce sufficient increase in pres gradient across basin to yield peak nocturnal winds near 30 kt off of Colombia tonight and Wed night before gradient weakens as second tropical wave moves across central portions and expands fresh to strong winds across N central portions. Atlc ridge to nose back into FL and NE Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week, and behind this second wave, in order to bring a return to strong trades across much of S central Carib on Friday and Saturday.


..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Atlc ridge extends from 1027 mb high near 34N50W to NW Bahamas and central FL, while weak frontal boundary has stalled across extreme NW corner of FA. This is yielding moderate to fresh E trades S of 23N E of 70W and moderate SE winds W of there around the periphery of the ridge, becoming light to moderate S to SW off NE FL coast. Seas are 4-5 ft and locally 6 ft across the SE waters in zone of trades and 2-3 ft elsewhere. The frontal boundary will meander through today then shift E and drag along about 29N-30N Wed before lifting N of area Wed night-Thu. This will maintain these generally mild winds and seas across the waters through the end of the week. As the ridge noses wwd Thu- Fri, the diurnal thermals along the N coastal zone of Hispaniola will expand to 22N with seas pushing 8 ft there during the evenings.

Expect SAL and hazy conditions to shift W into SE waters today through Wed ahead of tropical wave approaching Windward Islands.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster MT. National Hurricane Center.

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