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AGXX40 KNHC 171829
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
229 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO 26N87W TO 25N94W WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED JUST N OF FRONT AND E OF 90W PER SURFACE OBS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA WITH SEAS OF 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI AS PRES GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE NORTH- CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT ALSO BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 10-11 FT. BASED ON COMPUTER GUIDANCE...AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OF THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT INTO FRI. A 1010 MB LOW PRES WILL BE NEAR 29N88W ON FRI AT 1200 UTC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO 25N90W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THEN...THE LOW PRES WILL TRACK NE AND MOVE INLAND WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY FRI NIGHT...AND WILL BE E OF AREA BY SAT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW CENTER. IN FACT...CONVECTION IS ALREADY ON INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY...THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF GALE HAVE INCREASED TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL AND NE GULF WHILE THE GEFS PROBABILITIES REACH 20-25 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES. SO...THE DECISION WAS MADE TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR THE NE GULF FROM FRI AT 1200 UTC THROUGH SAT AT 0000 UTC. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER WITH LIKELY GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. THIS WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED GALE FORCE EVENT AND WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE 1454 ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. HIGH PRES N OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN AS A WEAK LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N72W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI. THE LOW PRES FORECAST TO DEVELOP FRI IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA LATE SAT WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING JUST E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SUN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 31N74W TO EASTERN CUBA LATE SUN. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30 KT ACROSS THE NW WATERS BY LATE SUN AS PRES TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 31N75W AND HIGH PRES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF U.S.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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