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AGXX40 KNHC 290638
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
138 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SE GULF..AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE NE GULF...2-3 FT OVER THE NW GULF...3-5 FT OVER THE SW GULF...AND 5-7 FT OVER THE SE GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MON WITH SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WATERS MON NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL NOT PROGRESS VERY FAR INTO THE GULF WATERS BEFORE STALLING OVER THE NW WATERS TUE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WED.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO E HONDURAS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...6-8 FT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-5 FT OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 3-4 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS W OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH TUE THEN ECMWF ADDED ON WED. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE FRONT WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS E OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE W OF THE FRONT AND OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS EXCEPT IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE W OF 76W. SEAS W OF THE BAHAMAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. SEAS E OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED N OF THE AREA MAINTAINING A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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