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AGXX40 KNHC 040730
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
212 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2016

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-High confidence.

A stationary front is over the NW Gulf with a line of showers and
thunderstorms extending from south-central Louisiana to near
28N94N. Winds and seas will be higher near tstms. Low pressure
inland over Mexico will propagate northeastward along the front,
which will drag the front back over the northern Gulf on Sunday.
The frontal boundary will then remain stationary over the northern
Gulf waters before transitioning back to a warm front Sunday night
ahead of another area of low pressure. This second low will enter
the northwestern Gulf Monday morning, accompanied by a cold front.
The low will track N-NE and over the southeastern United States
Tuesday, dragging the cold front across the remainder of the Gulf.

High pressure currently over the eastern United States will
support fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds across
the majority of the Gulf today. Fresh to locally strong NE winds
are also noted in the wake of the frontal boundary per the most
recent scatterometer pass. The wind speeds will decrease to
moderate to fresh south of the front Sunday evening into Monday as
the high over the eastern United States slides east over the
Atlantic while slightly weakening. The cold front entering the
Gulf on Monday will be followed by fresh to strong northwest winds
that will affect mainly the northwest Gulf Monday into Monday
night. The cold front will weaken as it crosses into the eastern
Gulf Tuesday. Global models are in good agreement on bringing a
stronger cold front across the northwest Gulf beginning Wednesday
night and sweeping it across the Gulf from northwest to southeast
Wednesday night through Thursday. Strong high pressure behind the
front will likely support gale force winds to 40 kt over portions
of the western Gulf Thursday and Thursday night, with fresh to
strong winds likely over the remainder of the Gulf. Current
marine guidance suggests wave heights over the southwestern basin
may peak near 16 ft with this gale event, with 12 ft seas
developing as far north as 27N off the Texas coast by late
Thursday. This forecast package shows gale conditions possible
across forecast zones GMZ017 and GMZ023 Thursday into Thursday
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A surface trough over the southwestern Caribbean supporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms will track westward today
while weakening. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to locally fresh
trade winds will prevail through Monday. By Monday night, the
pressure gradient will tighten slightly between high pressure over
the western Atlantic and a cold front moving across the Gulf of
Mexico. This will support fresh to locally strong winds across
the western Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, Monday
night through Tuesday. Similar wind speeds are also expected
near the coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela, including the Gulf
of Venezuela, through Thursday morning. In the long range, a
strong cold front will cross the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday,
reaching the northwest Caribbean Thursday night.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-High confidence.

A cold front extends from 26N65W to the Straits of Florida.
Moderate to fresh N-NE winds follows the front with seas of 4-6
ft, with the exception of the northeast zone AMZ115 where fresh NW
winds are noted and seas in the 6-8 ft range. Seas will continue
to build to 8-9 ft across this forecast zone today, primarily in
NW swell. The front will reach from 24N65W to the central Bahamas
late today and move across the SE waters on Monday.

High pressure over the eastern United States will extend a ridge
over the forecast waters the next couple of days, with a 1021 mb
high pressure developing over the N waters on Monday. The high
will shift eastward through Wednesday as a cold front enters the
NW waters. This will support gentle to light winds within a few
hundred nautical miles of the high center early next week. To the
west of the high, moderate to fresh return flow will develop off
the eastern coast of Florida Monday, increasing to 20-30 kt by
Tuesday, mainly N of 27N W of 75W. A cold front will enter the
NW waters Tuesday night, with moderate to fresh NW winds behind
this front. Another cold front will enter the northwest waters
Thursday night with fresh to strong northwesterly winds behind the
front.

A large swell event is underway over the central Atlantic with
swell of 7 to 9 ft forecast to propagate over the northeastern
zones through Monday, with lesser swell of 5 to 7 ft spreading to
the forecast waters east of 75W early next week.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu into Thu night.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu into Thu night.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

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