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AGXX40 KNHC 261730
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A FRONTAL TROUGH DRIFTING INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE N GULF THU...AND EXTEND ACROSS THE BASIN FROM CENTRAL FLA TO SOUTHERN TEX FRI. A THERMAL TROUGH MOVING WEST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN EACH NIGHT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN MEDIUM THU THROUGH SAT.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BECOME DIFFUSE W OF 75W BY WED. A LOW CENTERED NEAR 09N47W AND ASSOCIATED STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI OR SAT...INTENSIFYING THE LOW INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND BRINGING IT ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS INTO EASTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 12N AND 14N. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST HAS INCREASED TO THE POINT WHERE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 33 KT AND SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE GRIDS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SPECIFICALLY GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE STARTING WED NIGHT FOR ZONE AMZ035...WHICH STRADDLES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AFTERWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. FULLY EXPECT A TRANSITION TO TC CONDITION WORDING WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ONCE ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED BY THE NHC.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT ALONG 31N WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WATERS N OF 29N THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING STATIONARY THEN TRANSITIONING TO A WARM FRONT TUE AND LIFTING NORTH OF 30N. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A STRONG LOW EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS OVER SE WATERS WED THROUGH THU AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA...THEN INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FRI THROUGH SAT AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER WEST. WEAK RIDGING AND GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT.


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO SAT NIGHT.
.AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO SAT NIGHT.
.AMZ035...OFFSHORE WATERS WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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