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AGXX40 KNHC 220700
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TRANQUIL PERIOD CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD THROUGH SAT NIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 27N. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD NEAR THE YUCATAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE THERMALLY DRIVEN TROUGHING MIGRATING W FROM THE YUCATAN EACH NIGHT BUILDS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL DIFFERENCES HERE ARE RELATIVELY MINOR. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE FORECAST.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE 03Z OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CARRIES A 30 KT DEPRESSION INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN BY THU EVENING. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE THIS STRONG. THE 00Z ECMWF OPENS THE SYSTEM INTO A WAVE LATER TODAY AND THE 00Z GFS DOES SO BEFORE IT REACHES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS A STRONGER SOLUTION AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS WITH HEAVY EDITING DONE TO BOTH THE WINDS AND WAVES TO MATCH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE DAY-TO-DAY FORECAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS EARLY WED. THE GFS HAS BEEN HINTING AT GALES EARLY WED FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT THIS LATEST RUN IS MORE BULLISH. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG...BUT HAS INCREASED ITS AREA OF 30 KT WINDS. THE STRONGER GFS USUALLY PANS OUT BETTER THAN THE ECMWF HERE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH BREEZE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH FRI...INCREASING TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION. THE STRONGER GFS GENERALLY DOES BEST WITH THE LOCAL DIURNAL DRIVEN WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN...BOTH HERE AND OVER S CENTRAL WATERS. GFS AND NWPS/MWW3 WERE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE ONLY CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD OVER THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THU WILL COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE 0154 UTC AND 0240 UTC ASCAT PASSES SHOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN PLACE ALONG THE N COAST OF HAITI. THE ECMWF IS THE BEST INITIALIZED MODEL...SHOWING STRONGER MAX WINDS AND A BROADER SWATH OF FRESH WINDS IN THE ATLC EASTERN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SW. BEYOND THIS MORNING...THE GFS CARRIES A STRONGER SOLUTION IN THE EVENINGS N OF HISPANIOLA THAN THE ECMWF. THIS STRONGER SOLUTION HAS BEEN PANNING OUT BETTER UNDER A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL ADD TO THE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THU. THE GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...MINIMIZING THE INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST IN THE SW N ATLC. THE GFS TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THAN THE MORE SOUTHERLY MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL...THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE. IT SHOWS THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAVING LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST. IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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