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AGXX40 KNHC 290727
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
327 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED IN THE E CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEAK 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG A TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA THROUGH THE LOW TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THIS LOW AND TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT INLAND OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION EACH DAY. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE SW GULF AND DISSIPATING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SUN... EXCEPT PULSING TO FRESH OFFSHORE OF THE YUCATAN EACH NIGHT. SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THE WESTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY THERE.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA THU EVENING... AND UP TO 30 KT OFFSHORE OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL LOCALLY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS STARTING THU NIGHT. A RELATIVELY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE E CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 7-11 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN ATLC RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM E TO W ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING MAY MANAGE TO OCCASIONALLY SNEAK OFFSHORE INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COASTAL WATERS WITH LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN CONVECTION. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGING...EXCEPT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TO THE S OF 22N...PULSING TO 20-25 KT AT NIGHT STARTING WED NIGHT. COMBINED SEAS OF 3-5 FT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN BUILDING TO 4-6 FT S OF 27N THIS WEEKEND...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS THROUGHOUT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE WARNING THU NIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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