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AGXX40 KNHC 281710
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
110 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.




...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

REMNANTS OF A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH STILL PERSIST OVER THE SE GULF FROM THE FL STRAITS TO THE S-CENTRAL WATERS...BUT SHOULD LOSE IDENTITY ON FRI. 1009 MB LOW PRES THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE TROUGH ON WED IS SPINNING NEAR 26N97W. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE SE PORTION...AND OVER THE NW WATERS NEAR THE LOW IS NOW DECREASING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE W AND INLAND NEAR THE TX AND MEXICAN BORDER TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING E-SE 10-15 KT FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS NE OF THE TROUGH...AND GENERALLY E-SE 5- 10 KT SW OF THE TROUGH. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME ON FRI NIGHT INCREASING THE SE FLOW 15-20 KT ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE NORMAL EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF 15-20 KT NE WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO RESUME FRI EVENING. THIS WILL SET UP AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE FRI..SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SAT AND SUN. A BROAD LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN NIGHT...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY THE WAVE. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL AND IS TONED DOWN IN THE GRIDS. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE LOW AND RIDGING TO THE N SUPPORTING E- SE 20-25 KT FLOW NEAR 23N91W BY MON EVENING...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING NW TO THE W-CENTRAL WATERS ON TUE AS THE LOW SHIFTS WNW ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OBVIOUSLY...THE SW GULF WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED NEXT WEEK.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH THE TRADES INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 20-25 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SAT EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME MORE SAT NIGHT WITH S 20- 25 KT FLOW FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF HONDURAS ON SUN THROUGH EARLY MON.

A SECOND WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT...AND THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ENHANCED TO 20-25 KT/SEAS 6-8 FT N OF 14N WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE...BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON FRI...EXCEPT ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT WILL MAINTAIN 20-25 KT ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT...THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN NIGHT AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON MON NIGHT. A FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON MON.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROUGH STILL EXTENDS SW FROM CRISTOBAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH SW 15-20 KT FLOW OBSERVED N OF 28N E OF 70W. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 29N55W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WILL RE-ORIENT FROM 28N55W TO 27N65W TO 31N75W LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE NEAR 27N68W ON FRI...THEN SHIFT NW TO BEYOND 31N ON FRI NIGHT EFFECTIVELY RE-ORIENTATING THE RIDGE FROM NW TO SE FROM 31N72W TO 27N65W ON FRI NIGHT WHERE IT MEANDER AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MON. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 67W WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE ATLC WATERS THROUGH EARLY SAT. EXPECT THE TRADES TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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