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AGXX40 KNHC 231706
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1206 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS THEN USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AT MINIMAL FORCE OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET TODAY. A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE AT THE MOMENT. A RAPID MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE TX COAST TONIGHT...AND REACH FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE MON AFTERNOON...THEN STALL BRIEFLY FROM PORT CHARLOTTE FL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON MON NIGHT. THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK W OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE ALLOWING A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER TO DEVELOP BRIEFLY ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 23N93W. RE-ENFORCING HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH THE FRONT SE OF THE GULF ON WED ACCOMPANIED BY A MINIMAL NORTHERLY GALE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUE AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY WED. A HIGH PRES CENTER WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WATERS ON WED WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 4-7 FT OVER ONLY THE SE GULF ON EARLY FRI AS SE RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE NW WATERS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AND E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE...THEN DIMINISH TO FRESH TRADES ON WED-FRI. MODERATE E TO SE TRADES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH SOME TUE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA ON WED NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY 20-30 KT WINDS AND 8-13 FT SEAS DEVELOPING W OF THE FRONT ON WED NIGHT THROUGH LATE THU AS THE WEAKENING FRONT REACHES FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA. STILL MAY NEED A MINIMAL GALE DUE TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. THE POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL BECOME NE AT 20-25 KT SEAS TO 9 FT BY LATE FRI.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N55W TO 25N70W IS TRANSITIONING TO WARM FRONT EXTENDING NW TO NE FL WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TONIGHT INTO MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST LATE MON. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL BRIEFLY FROM 31N74W TO FT PIERCE FL ON TUE. BUILDING HIGH PRES N OF THE FRONT ON TUE NIGHT WILL PUSH THE FRONT E AGAIN TO A PSN FROM 31N75W TO NW CUBA ON WED NIGHT...AND FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA ON THU NIGHT WITH THE FRONT LOSING IDENTITY ON FRI. A BAND OF E-SE 20- 25 KT WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE GA COAST. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN INCREASING THE S-SW FLOW N OF THE BAHAMAS TO 20-30 KT THIS EVENING...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY LATE MON SUPPORTING SW 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT THE GA COAST MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM 31N74W TO FT PIERCE FL ON TUE EVENING. BUILDING HIGH PRES WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY FLOW W OF THE FRONT EARLY WED PUSHING THE FRONT E AGAIN TO A PSN FROM 31N75W TO NW CUBA ON WED NIGHT...THEN STALLING FROM 31N28W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON THU NIGHT. EXPECT THE N FLOW TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT W OF THE FRONT LATE WED AND SPREAD S TO THE N CUBAN COAST BY LATE WED NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON THU WITH NE WINDS AT 15-20 KT W OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT ON FRI.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING TODAY. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING TODAY. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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