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AGXX40 KNHC 021854
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
254 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. USED TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE EXTREME NE TX COAST WITH A SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS AS AFTERNOON HEAT TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND TEMPORARILY SEPARATES THE GULF RIDGE SEGMENT FROM THE ATLC RIDGE. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT-GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. THE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES ARE INDICATING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT SE OF A LINE FROM NE TEXAS TO NW CUBA...AND LOWER SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE N OF THE SAME LINE. THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A THE TYPICAL THERMAL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING...AND MOVES NW LATE EACH NIGHT INTO EARLY IN THE MORNINGS AND DISSIPATES OVER THE SW GULF BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE GRADIENT INDUCED BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF WILL BRIEFLY RESULT IN E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS ABOUT 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT N TO A POSITION FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO THE MS DELTA THROUGH TUE.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PRESENT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF NEAR THE NE COAST OF MEXICO AND COAST OF SOUTHERN TEXAS HAS DIMINISHED BOTH IN COVERAGE AND IN INTENSITY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND NE MEXICO.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. USED 12Z MWW3/TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS BLEND FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. ANOTHER NOCTURNAL PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IS AGAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE TONIGHT AND LATE FRI NIGHT POSSIBLY LASTING TILL 12Z SAT MORNING. SEAS WITHIN THE GALE WIND AREA ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT TO AROUND 15 FT. ALTIMETER DATA FROM THIS MORNING SUGGESTED SEAS OF 13-14 FT JUST W OF THE GALE WIND AREA...AND ALSO HIGHLIGHTED SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 09N-10N BETWEEN 76W-80W. SEAS TO 10 FT ARE ALREADY IMPACTING ZONE 29 DUE TO RESULTANT NE SWELLS FROM THE PROLONGED GALE EPISODES OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS IN ZONE 31. THE NOCTURNAL INCREASE OF TRADES TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AS A TROPICAL WAVE THERE MOVES INLAND. THESE WINDS DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING FRI MORNING...THEN MATERIALIZE AGAIN FRI NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SAT AFTERNOON TO 15-20 KT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 82W S OF 19N WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 59W S OF 17N WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRI INTO EARLY SAT... THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE AREA ALONG 48W IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 55W FRI AFTERNOON... THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SAT...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE. NE SWELLS TO 8 FT ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. THESE SWELLS WILL INCREASE THERE TO 8-9 FT SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS THERE INCREASING TO 20-25 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT SUN AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NE SWELLS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY MON.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED 12Z MWW3/TAFB NWPS GUIDANCE BLEND FOR WAVEHIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM NEAR 30N65W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE BUT PULSE TO 15-20 KT N OF 30N AS WEAK TROUGHS MOVE OFF THE SE GA COAST IMMEDIATELY STALLING AND WASHING OUT OVER THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA. MODERATE E-SE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY EVENINGS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT AND LATE FRI NIGHT WITHIN 120 NM OF COAST OF NW COLOMBIA.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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