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AGXX40 KNHC 010849
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
349 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL CONSENSUS

W PORTION OF OLD COLD FRONT HAS LIFTED N AS AN ILL DEFINED WARM FRONT THIS MORNING...LIFTING INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF SE TEXAS AND SW LA. FRESHENING FLOW DEPICTED BY RECENT SCAT PASSES THROUGH STRAITS OF FL AND SE AND E PORTIONS E OF WARM FRONT...WITH SOME AREAS OF SOLID 25 KT S OF 25N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. SLOWLY WEAKENING RETURN FLOW TO PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR THE SE TEXAS COAST BY 00Z THIS EVENING THEN PUSH SE AND REACH FROM NEAR BIG BEND REGION TO NEAR TAMPICO BY 12Z MON. MODELS DEPICTING BLAST OF NLY WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE BEHIND FRONT AND W OF 93W AND WILL SPILL DOWN MEXICAN COAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG CABO ROJO YIELDING NLY GALES THROUGH 03-06Z W OF 96W AS FRONT CONTINUES SWD. FRONT TO MOVE SE THROUGH ALMOST ENTIRE BASIN BY 06Z TUE...EXCEPT FOR BAY OF CAMPECHE. FORECAST THEN BECOME QUITE INTERESTING TUE-THU AS DIFFERING SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY MODELS WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRES ALONG FRONTAL REMNANTS ACROSS SW GULF THAT LIFTS N INTO NW GULF WED. INTERACTION WITH CUT OFF LOW SHIFTING ENE ACROSS MEXICO AND ACROSS NW GULF WED-THU PROVIDING SOME OF DIFFERENCES...WITH ECMWF FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CYCLOGENESIS...AND RESEMBLES CMC MORE THAN GFS OR UKMET. GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEANS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD...AND CLOSER TO GFS AND THUS TRENDING CLOSER TO THIS SOLUTION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW TO BECOME REASONABLY ORGANIZED AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVE E ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF THU...WITH GALES POSSIBLE N OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS N OF CARIB THIS MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG NELY FLOW SPILLING THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN LEE OF E CUBA AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO W ATLC BEHIND FRONT. HIGH TO SHIFT E TODAY AND WINDS THERE WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE E AND DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL...WITH GALES ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA NOT EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRES TO SHIFT QUICKLY ESE OFF MID ATLC COAST TODAY AND VEER WINDS ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OPENING UP TONIGHT INTO GULF AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT THERE. NOCTURNAL MAX WINDS OFF COLOMBIA TO PULSE TO GALE FORCE EACH OF THE NEXT 3 NIGHTS GENERALLY 03-12Z BEFORE ATLC RIDGE EXITS THE REGION THU. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH STRONG ELY COMPONENT EXPECT BRIEFLY SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS TONIGHT. EXTENT OF 20 KT TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO NEAR 17N THROUGH THU.

AS MENTIONED BELOW...NWLY SWELL BEHIND CURRENT COLD FRONT IN W ATLC UNDERFORECAST BY 2-4 FT BY WW3 AND THIS WILL IMPACT TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS MON THROUGH WED...WITH ECWAVE HANDLING THIS BETTER BASED ON RECENT W ATLC BUOY AND ALTIMETER OBS. SEAS N OF 18N TO BUILD TO 10-12 FT MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN NWLY SWELL AND ENE WINDWAVE N OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED S-SE AND NOW BEGINNING TO LAY DOWN E TO W ALONG ABOUT 21N TO THE W OF 70W WHILE REMNANTS OF OLDER BOUNDARY TO THE E OF IT NOW EXTEND INTO THE LEEWARDS. RECENT SCAT PASSES CAPTURED GOOD PORTIONS OF STRONG TO GALE FORCE NWLY FLOW ACROSS NW ATLC EXTENDING INTO OUR WATERS TO 29N AND W OF 60W. 0515Z ALTIMETER PASS ACROSS SW N ATLC CONFIRMS BUOY OBS THERE...WHERE WW3 IS RUNNING 2-4 FT LOW IN BUILDING NNW SWELL...WITH ECWAVE ONLY 1-2 FT LOW. LATEST NWPS RUN WAS A BIT BETTER THAN WW3 AND HAVE BLENDED HIGH PERCENTAGE OF NWPS THERE TO ATTEMPT TO RAISE WAVE HEIGHTS THEN ADDED ANOTHER 2 FT MANUALLY THROUGH 48 HRS. DISCONTINUITIES REMAIN IN MY MANUAL EDITING BUT WILL LIKELY GET CLOSE TO NUMBERS THAT I WANT IN OFF TEXT. GFS AND WW3 SEEM TO BE OFF MAINLY W OF 65W AND THIS NW SWELL ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH OUR SE WATERS NEXT 48 HRS AND HIT CARIB ISLANDS ABOUT 2-3 FT HIGHER THAN WW3 FORECAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO REGION FROM THE NW BEHIND FRONT WITH WINDS FRESHENING TO AROUND 20 KT N OF COLD FRONT W OF 70W AND TURNING NE AND SPILLING THROUGH CARIB PASSAGES...AND THROUGH STRAITS OF FL.

FRONT TO CONTINUE SHIFTING S-SE AND SINK S TO ALONG 20N BY 00Z THIS EVENING THEN DRIFT SLIGHTLY S THROUGH 48 HOURS AND TRANSITION TO SHEARLINE. SFC HIGH TO SHIFT E-SE ACROSS W ATLC WATERS AND INTO CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH MON NIGHT AND MAINTAIN FRESH WINDS N OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO SE BAHAMAS. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE OFF E COAST OF U.S. LATE MON AFTERNOON WITH SWLY GALES DEVELOPING AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS FAR NW WATERS N OF 29N 12-15Z MON THEN INCREASE AND SHIFT E WITH FRONT...WHILE NWLY GALES BUILD INTO AREA N OF 28.5N BEHIND FRONT THROUGH 06Z TUE.

SUFFICIENT MODEL DIFFERENCE DEVELOP FOR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WED NIGHT-THU AND HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PRODUCE A GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS FOR THIS SYSTEM.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING MON. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING MON. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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