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AGXX40 KNHC 020814
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
414 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

A LINE OF SQUALLS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS AND SE PARISHES...BEING FED BY FRESH TO STRONG ESE LLVL FLOW. RECENT ASCAT PASS DEPICTED 20-35 KT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT IS SOMEWHAT SUSPECT DUE TO THE DEEP CNVTN. OTHERWISE...WEAKENING RIDGE ACROSS NE PORTIONS ATTM WITH STATIONARY FRONT NEAR SE TEXAS COAST...AND INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SW PORTIONS...BUT OFFSHORE OF TYPICAL VERACRUZ COASTAL TROUGH POSITION. FRESH SE WINDS OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF N YUCATAN PENINSULA AS EVENING THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS WNW OVER WATER. SEAS LIKELY 5-6 FT OFF N COAST OF YUCATAN AND 5-7 FT ACROSS NW PORTIONS...AND MUCH HIGHER IF ASCAT WINDS WERE CLOSE ACROSS LA COASTAL WATERS. OBS INDICATED DENSE FOG MAINLY WITH VSBYS MAINLY 3-5 NM ACROSS NW WATERS TO THE S AND SW OF DEEP CNVTN AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE. A FEW PLATFORMS REPORTED VSBYS 1-3 NM.

COLD FRONT TO MOVES SE OFF THE TX COAST SHORTLY AND REACH FROM CENTRAL LA TO TAMPICO BY THIS EVENING...WITH 20-25 KT NLY WINDS SPILLING DOWN SE TEXAS AND UPPER MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT BUT STILL HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND AM FOLLOWING IT CLOSELY FOR THIS PACKAGE. FRONT TO REACH FROM NEAR MSY TO 26N95W TO VERACRUZ BY TUE MORNING...FL BIG BEND TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING...AND YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA TO ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THU MORNING. STRONG NLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE STRONGEST PRES GRADIENT SHIFTS TO CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WERE NLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT WILL PREVAIL WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. PEAK SEAS LIKELY TO ONLY REACH 6 OR 7 FT DURING THIS TIME.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SLIGHTLY S ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND PULLING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NE ACROSS THE ENTIRE ERN CARIB. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT VENTING SCT CNVTN THERE AND ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND LLVL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE BETWEEN 55W AND 75W. FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS GENERALLY S OF 14.5N AND E OF 72.5W BUT WERE MISSED BY RECENT ASCAT PASSES. HOWEVER...2240Z ALTIMETER DATA SHOWED SIZABLE AREA OF 7-9 FT SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA EXTENDING TO 14N ALONG 67W...AND 1-2 FT ABOVE BOTH WW3 AND ECWAVE. PEAK SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN SPREAD FROM THIS AREA WNW INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS. NOCTURNAL MAX ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS 20-25 KT DEPICTED BY 0332Z ASCAT PASS WHERE SEAS MUST BE 5-7 FT ATTM. FRESH E TO SE FETCH EXTENDING INTO NW CARIB AND GRADUALLY OPENING UP INTO GULF PRODUCING SEAS 4-5 FT ACROSS NW PORTIONS W OF 80W.

PATTERN TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY WED BUT WITH PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING SLIGHTLY E AND CENTRAL PORTIONS AND WINDS GENERALLY 20 KT OR LESS AREA WIDE...BEFORE GULFMEX COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY THU AND CONTINUING SE AND REACHING CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL BELIZE BY FRI MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF STILL INDICATING SLIGHTLY STRONG NLY WIND BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HAVE FOLLOWED WITH THIS. ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS NE CARIB THROUGH WED BEFORE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E OF AREA AND SOME MODEST UPPER RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED THROUGH EARLY FRI.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SE...FROM 30N60W TO 27N68W THEN STATIONARY TO 29N75W. DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS NE CARIB AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS TO THE NW THROUGH E. LLVL WEAKNESS IS VERY SUBTLE AND HAS SHIFTED WWD ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS TO N OF HISPANIOLA FRESH SE FLOW PREVAILS FROM SE WATERS THROUGH BAHAMAS AND INTO FAR SE FLORIDA ATTM...WITH PATCHES OF MODEST LLVL MOISTURE AND SHOWERS. ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL ATLC SE TO FRONT...WITH HIGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD NEXT FEW DAYS AND RIDGE BUILD WEAKLY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER ACROSS ENTIRE AREA THROUGH EARLY WED IN ADVANCE OF GULFMEX COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF SE U.S. COAST DURING THE DAY WED AND REACH FROM NEAR 31N74W TO STRAITS OF FL BY THU MORNING. AGAIN MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT STILL FOLLOWING ECMWF. AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS NW PORTIONS WED NIGHT AND THU...S TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL STRENGTHEN AS ATLC HIGH GOES STATIONARY...WITH 20 KT WINDS EXTENDING S TO NEAR 24N BY THU MORNING. MODELS SUGGESTING AREAS OF 25-30 KT S TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT EARLY THU THROUGH LATE FRI AS FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO ACTIVE LINES OF CNVTN TO DEVELOP. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND SQUALL LINES SUGGESTED AHEAD OF FRONT BY GLOBAL MODELS THROUGH FRI...WITH FRONT TO REACH FROM 31N67W TO ERN CUBA ALONG 76W BY FRI MORNING.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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