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AGXX40 KNHC 282029 CCA
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
244 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

CORRECTED GULF OF MEXICO

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

RIDGE NE OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NE THROUGHOUT EXCEPT IN THE NE AND SE GULF PORTIONS WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING LOW PRES MOVEING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FL NEAR THE LOWER KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AROUND THE LOW PRIMARILY IN THE E AND SE QUADRANTS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SE GULF ON MON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE SE GULF THROUGH TUE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF THE LOW BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER. THE GFS AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY IN THE EASTERN GULF THEN TRACK NE ACROSS THE SE U.S. OR NRN FL. THE FORECAST GRIDS REFLECT THIS. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW CERTAINTY OF THE INTENSITY WINDS WERE CAPPED AT 25-30 KT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL SPREAD FROM THE STRAITS OF FL TO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND THEN SPREAD TO THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF WATERS WED THROUGH MOST OF FRI.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HURRICANE WARNING GASTON NE OF THE AREA IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC IS KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN. AS GASTON MOVES N AND RECURVES...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE WEST- CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 24N. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON-WED. BY EARLY TUE... FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PERSISTING LATE INTO THE WEEK. MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN MON-FRI.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORMED AT 15 UTC NEAR 31.5N 70.0W WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM BY MON EVENING WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM IT IN THE TAFB FORECAST AREA. LOW PRES IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR THE FL KEYS WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MON WHERE IT HAS A POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. STRONG E-SE WINDS ARE OVER THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND OVER CENTRAL AND WRN CUBA THROUGH RN TERN MON. LARGE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WARNING GASTON WILL PERSIST IN NORTHEASTERN WATERS BETWEEN 55-60W THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG SE-S WINDS WILL IMPACT THE THE NW WATERS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH RESPECT TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK NE TO ACROSS NRN FL AND POSSIBLY TO OFF NE FL COAST ON FRI.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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