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AGXX40 KNHC 310848
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
348 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SSE ACROSS FLORIDA AND ERN GULF THIS MORNING...WHILE REMAINING RELATIVELY STATIONARY W OF 90W ALONG 25-26N. RECENT SCAT PASSES ONLY COVERED CENTRAL PORTIONS OF GULF AND SHOWED N TO NE WINDS 15-20 KT OFF MOUTH OF MS S TO 27.5N WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY 5-6 FT. OTHERWISE...BAND OF MODERATE TO FRESH NNE TO E WINDS STRETCHING NEARLY E TO W ACROSS BASIN N OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE SEAS OF 4-5 FT EXPECTED. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS AND MOVE SSE AND CLEAR STRAITS OF FL THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH N OF FRONT SHIFTS E-NE ACROSS TN VALLEY ALLOWING WINDS ACROSS W HALF OF BASIN TO VEER SE...WITH W PORTION OF FRONT LIFTING N AS WARM FRONT...AND MOVING INLAND ACROSS SE TEXAS AND LA TONIGHT. WIND THEN VEERS SLY SUN AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT MOVING THROUGH TEXAS. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH VERY NEAR CENTRAL/SE TEXAS COAST BY 00Z MON THEN RACES FAIRLY QUICKLY SE...REACHING EXTREME S FL TO NEAR 21.5N96.5W THEN SWD INTO MEXICO BY 00Z TUE... WHERE MODELS SUGGEST CHANCE FOR NLY WINDS TO 30 KT TO SPILL DOWN MEXICAN COAST W OF 96W THROUGHOUT DAY ON MON. FRONT TO THEN MOVE THROUGH STRAITS TUE WHILE W PORTION OF BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND BEGINS TO LIFT NWD IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH TEXAS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HERE TUE-WED AS DEEP LAYERED CUTOFF LOW ACROSS N MEXICO GRADUALLY SHIFTS ENE ACROSS N MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS THROUGH WED. EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE TRADITIONALLY HANDLED THIS STRONG SRN STREAM FLOW BETTER THAN GFS...AND DON'T YET HAVE A FEEL FOR HOW NEW GFS IS PERFORMING IN MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE. HAVE THUS OPTED TO GO WITH WHAT I KNOW AND WENT 50-50 ECMWF-GFS ACROSS GULF AND WRN ATLC BEYOND 00Z WED. MODELS DEVELOP LOW ALONG THIS NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS N W PORTIONS AND THEN SHIFT IT E ACROSS BASIN THROUGH THU...WITH ECMWF INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SMALL AREA OF GALES N OF LOW. CONFIDENCE LOW HERE THU-FRI.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

FRONTAL TROUGH APPEARS TO HAVE WASHED OUT FROM CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO S OF JAMAICA. RECENT SCAT PASSES COVERED 70-80W AND REVEALED NNE TO NE WINDS SOLID 20 KT THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND 20-25 KT IN LEE OF CUBA. SEAS LIKELY BUILDING 4-7 FT IN THESE AREAS ATTM. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL W OF 70W WITH STRONG NELY COMPONENT...AND WINDS 25-30 KT OFF OF COLOMBIA NO LONGER FORECAST TO REACH GALE ATTM BY GFS AND ECMWF AND WILL DROP GALE FOR 12Z PKG. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT...HIGH PRES SHIFTING ENE ACROSS TN VALLEY AND INTO W ATLC TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THESE NW PORTIONS OF BASIN FOR FRESH TO STRONG NELY WINDS...WHILE NOCTURNAL MAX OFF OF COLOMBIA WILL BEGIN TO PULSE TO GALES EACH OF NEXT SUCCESSIVE NIGHTS. THE PRES GRADIENT SHOULD THEN RELAX BY LATE SUN ACROSS NW PORTIONS AS HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT E TOWARDS BERMUDA AND WINDS VEER MORE ELY...YET PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS AS HIGH PASSES DUE N. PRES GRADIENT TO THEN TIGHTEN ACROSS E PORTIONS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON EVENING AS HIGH SHIFTS DUE N OF AREA...WITH FRESH TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS S PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS 31N66W TO UPPER KEYS AND S TIP OF FL PENINSULA...WHILE OLD LINGERING BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS OUTER ATLC COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOWED SWLY GALES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING AS FAR S AS 28.5N AROUND 23Z AND ONLY 20-25 KT OF NNW WIND BEHIND FRONT. WW3 1-2 FT LOW TO THE SE OF FRONT AS RESIDUAL NW SWELL FROM LAST FRONTAL SYSTEM FADES ACROSS AREA E OF 70W. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SWLY GALES WILL LIFT OUT OF AREA BY 12Z THIS MORNING...WHILE NWLY GALES N OF AREA AND W OF FRONT SHIFT GRADUALLY SE NEXT 24 HOURS AND INVADE NE PORTIONS OF HSF AREA TONIGHT. LARGE NWLY SWELL GENERATED BEHIND THIS FRONT IS DIRECTED JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND MIX OF BUILDING NELY WIND SWELL AND THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL DOMINATE SE WATERS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES SE AND MOVE E OF AREA...LAYING E TO W ALONG 21N SUN NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH BEHIND FRONT WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N66W ON SUN NIGHT WITH A TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES N OF DEVELOPING SHEAR LINE ACROSS SE PORTIONS...WITH THESE WINDS SPREADING NW THROUGH BAHAMAS. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH SE U.S. COAST MON WITH SWLY GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONT...AND ACROSS N FL WATERS W OF 75W MON MORNING AND SWEEP E AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THESE GALES GENERALLY EXPECTED N OF 29N...AND MINIMAL GALES MAY BE SEEN BEHIND FRONT AND ALSO N OF 29-30N BRIEFLY MON NIGHT. ECWAVE STILL NOT AVAILABLE FOR WAVE FORECASTS AND A BLEND WITH WW3 WOULD IMPROVE FORECAST THERE.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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