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AGXX40 KNHC 241745
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM NORTHERN CUBA NEAR 23N83W TO NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN SE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW COASTAL WATERS LATE SAT...THEN SHIFT E ACROSS THE N GULF SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A STATIONARY RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MON THROUGH TUE. S RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT...CONTINUE THROUGH TUE...THEN DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE FLOW ELSEWHERE THROUGH WED.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT...THEN LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN THE W CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON. SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 47W WILL MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SAT AND SUN...THEN MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE...REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN WED. A LOW ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO 6-7 FT WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM E CUBA TO NE COAST OF HONDURAS BY LATE SAT. SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TROPICAL LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN JAMAICA AND NE HONDURAS BY LATE SAT...THEN MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS SUN THROUGH TUE...REACHING THE COAST OF BELIZE TUE NIGHT OR WED. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW EXPECTED TO FORM BETWEEN JAMAICA AND NE HONDURAS THIS WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS IN LONG TERM UNTIL GREATER MODEL CONSENSUS IS REACHED.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N65W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED S OF MIAMI NEAR 24N80W WILL RACE NE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WHILE STRENGTHENING TO A MINIMAL GALE FORCE LOW NEAR 26N76W THIS EVENING. THE GALE CENTER WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SEVERAL OF THE FORECAST ZONES NE OF CUBA WITH WINDS TO 35 KT TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...THEN WEAKEN S OF BERMUDA AS IT MOVES NE OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SAT. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...EXTENDING EXTEND FROM 31N65W TO NE CUBA...THEN STALL FROM 28N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUN NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT 20-30 KT WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW CENTER THROUGH SAT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE MON...WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION WEAKENS E OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E OFF THE FL COAST NEAR 30N79W SUN NIGHT...THEN MOVE NE OF THE AREA MON... HELPING TO RE-ORIENT THE RIDGE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MODERATE ENE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N W OF 65W MON THROUGH WED.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SAT.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING SAT.
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SAT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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