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AGXX40 KNHC 290925
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
126 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging over the central Gulf will erode through today as a frontal system moves southward over the southeastern United States. Gentle winds under the ridge and moderate winds around the periphery of the ridge can be expected today with seas of 1 to 3 ft.

The cold front will reach the north central and northeast Gulf tonight and stall out from central Florida to around 27N92W by Sunday night. This front will be accompanied by numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms. The front will then meander over the central and eastern Gulf waters as it transitions to a trough through early next week. This stalled front and then surface trough will continue to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern half of the Gulf through the middle of next week.

Fresh westerly winds will arrive over the northeastern Gulf tonight through Sunday ahead of the front, with briefly fresh northerly winds also possible over the northeastern Gulf through Sunday to the north of the front. As the front stalls out Sunday night, expect mainly gentle to moderate winds to prevail over the Gulf through early next week, except stronger winds near thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf. Generally tranquil conditions can be expected elsewhere through this period over the Gulf basin, with mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

Through Sunday night, ridging north of the area will continue to support fresh to locally strong trades across the central Caribbean mainly to the S of 17N between 65W and 80W, with the strongest winds along the coasts of NW Venezuela and Northern Colombia, with the area of strong winds extending as far N as 15N just prior to sunrise each morning. On Monday, enhanced trade winds from a tropical wave passage will produce fresh to locally strong east to northeast winds over the tropical Atlantic waters, Leeward Islands, northeastern Caribbean, and along the southern coast of Hispaniola, lasting through Wednesday. Seas will build to 8 ft over the tropical Atlantic waters north of 15N Monday night, reaching the Atlantic passages of the northeastern Caribbean Islands on Tuesday, and persisting over this area through Wednesday.

The ridge north of the region will expand westward Monday night through mid week which will support fresh to strong east winds over the Gulf of Honduras each night.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A ridge of high pressure will extend across the Bahamas the next several days. Moderate to locally fresh southwest flow will persist W of 77W and N of the ridge through Sunday ahead of a weak cold front sliding off the Georgia coast late tonight. The front will stall from around 31N76W to 29N82W by Sunday night, before dissipating to a trough and drifting northwestward later in the week. This frontal system will support enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity over the waters within a couple of hundred miles of the frontal boundary through the upcoming week.

Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh easterly flow is forecast south of the ridge axis through Monday. By Monday night the ridge will intensify, while a tropical wave crosses the southeastern waters. This will result in a freshening of the trades with occasionally strong east to northeast winds possible south of 22N Monday night through Wednesday, with seas building to 6 to 9 ft, highest over the southeastern zone AMZ127 through Tuesday night, then AMZ125 Wednesday.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.

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