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AGXX40 KNHC 060759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
359 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND SMALL PERCENTAGE OF NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE LATE SEASON AND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT RECENTLY MOVED ACROSS THE GULF IS NOW WELL E OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRES NOW PRESIDING OVER THE FORECAST WATERS. THE 06Z ANALYSIS HAS A 1019 MB HIGH CENTER AT 23.5N95W. CURRENT BUOY AND LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOW MODERATE NLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND N CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF. GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ELSEWHERE IN RESPONSE TO THE 1019 MB HIGH. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE SE OF A LINE FROM 29N85W TO 20N97W...AND 1-3 FT NW OF THIS SAME LINE.

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRI...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON SAT. THE HIGH WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLC RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING LOW PRES W OF THE GULF WILL INDUCE AN INCREASE OF SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF ZONES SUN THROUGH EARLY MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO POSSIBLY AROUND 7 OR 8 FT IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF. IN ADDITION...A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING BEGINNING ON SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY FRESH E-SE WINDS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF IN THE MORNINGS...AND WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOONS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE STRONG SPRING TIME COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG A PSN FROM EASTERN CUBA TO W OF JAMAICA...AND TO INLAND THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS AT 06Z. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 80-180 NM OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF JAMAICA...AND WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH NEARBY BUOY REPORTS AND LATEST ASCAT DATA SHOW MAINLY GENTLE WINDS NEAR THE FRONT...GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. THE LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOWS MODERATE E-SE WINDS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SEA...AND THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF ABOUT 83W...AND IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. SEAS ARE 2-3 FT ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ZONES PER RECENT ALTIMETER AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS PUNCH AS IT MAKES PROGRESS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA GOING INTO SAT NIGHT WHEN IT SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES STATIONARY FROM NEAR HISPANIOLA TO NEAR NORTHERN PANAMA. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE SUN. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING CURRENTLY N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH TUE...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 00Z MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF NWPS TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SLOW MOVING SPRING TIME COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED AT 06Z FROM NEAR 31N69W SSW TO THE SE BAHAMAS...AND TO EASTERN CUBA. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF BASIN WHILE A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS JUST SE OF THE N GEORGIA AND S CAROLINA COASTS. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE FORECAST WATERS IS SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN. STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. IN ADDITION....SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER EXTENSIVE AND QUITE IMPRESSIVE 110 NM WIDE LINE OF NUMEROUS TSTMS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ROUGHLY WITHIN 60-220 NM. THIS ACTIVITY CONTAINS FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE NW IN DIRECTION PER CURRENT BUOY REPORTS.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY REACH A PSN FROM NEAR 31N67W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...FROM NEAR 29N65W TO HAITI SAT...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE SE PORTION ON SUN. THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SW WINDS AND TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFT TO THE FAR EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT...AND LINGER INTO SAT AFTERNOON WHILE SHRINKING IN COVERAGE. HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO ATLC WATERS SUN THROUGH MON. THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT APPEARS THAT IT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN ALL MERGE INTO THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ON SAT OVER THE FAR EASTERN WATERS WITH THIS FRONT WEAKENING TO STATIONARY FRONT JUST E OF THE AREA BY LATE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY ON SUN WITH ITS SOUTHERN PART STRETCHING SSW TO NEAR THE NE SECTION OF HISPANIOLA. MODELS INDICATE THAT A RIDGE WILL THEN SET UP NEAR OR ALONG 30N MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE BACK W AS A TROUGH ACROSS THE SE PORTION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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