Home


000
AGXX40 KNHC 310759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
359 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS LATEST MWW3/TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS...THEN MOVE INTO THE SW GULF WATERS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH GENERALLY WILL BE MODERATE TO FRESH. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST WIND-SPEED EVENT IS FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 6 OR 7 FT.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH WED NIGHT. S OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT MODERATE E-SE RETURN FLOW PRIMARILY IN THE W-CENTRAL GULF. MODERATE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE FL STRAITS EACH DAY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY EVENINGS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS LATEST MWW3/TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W FROM 22N SOUTHWARD. WAVE HEIGHTS THAT RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 10 FEET ARE BEING INDICATED BY ALTIMETER DATA WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE WILL REACH PUERTO RICO IN 24 HOURS... NEAR JAMAICA IN 48 HOURS...AND NEAR NW CUBA IN 72 HOURS. STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL SPREAD W ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 15N E OF THE LEEWARDS AND THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA ON SUNDAY. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E-SE WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA BEGINNING TODAY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE...AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF PULSING STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. COMBINED SEAS WITH THE TRADES WILL PEAK TO 10 FT ON SUNDAY...AND AGAIN ON WED AS LARGE FETCH BEHIND AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ALLOWS FOR SEAS TO BUILD BACK TO 10 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS SUBSIDE GRADUALLY THROUGH THU.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS LATEST MWW3/TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W INTO THE AREA FROM 29N55W TO 28N78W. THE GRADIENT S OF THIS RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVE W ACROSS THE WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS BEGINNING TODAY ON SUNDAY S OF 21N E OF 58W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W-NW ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 24N BETWEEN 63W AND 75W BY SUN EVENING...AND TO S OF 24N W OF 70W BY MON EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH TUE ALONG WITH SEAS SUBSIDING.

FRESH E-SE FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE FRESH TO STRONG ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH WED NIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MT. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Home