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AGXX40 KNHC 011702
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
102 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 1200 UTC FROM LOW PRES NEAR APALACHICOLA BAY TO 29N85W THEN W TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF COASTAL WATERS AS A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH THE REMNANTS LIFTING N OF THE AREA LATE MON. THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS BEING INFLUENCED NORTHWARD BY THE LEADING EDGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED EASTWARD OVER THE NE GULF...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE RIDGE TO ITS S. THIS HAS ALLOW SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N ACCORDING TO THE 0936 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS AND BUOY 42036 WHICH SAW SEAS IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE FROM 08Z-12Z. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE ENERGY OVER THE NE GULF.

A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE NW DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING LATE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE BEHIND THE TROUGH IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT A FRESH BREEZE BEGINNING MON MORNING BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE AND CONTINUING INTO WED AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE N.




...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL GROW AS THE RIDGE BUILDS W OVER THE SW N ATLC OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE N...AND THEN BACK OFF TO A DIURNAL MAX OF 30 KT BY MON. AT THAT TIME...THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE SHIFTING E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ASIDE FROM AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS TROPICAL WAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 83W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE HAS JUST MOVED INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUN AND REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY WED. A THIRD WAVE IS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON INTO EARLY TUE BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE.




...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WIDESPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TODAY. THIS AREA IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NW WATERS AND UNDER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N74W AND A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO SAVANNAH GEORGIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. SW WINDS ARE 20-25 KT N OF 30N BETWEEN 76W-80W ACCORDING TO THE 0936 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS...WITH SHIP OXKO2 REPORTING 8 FT SEAS NEAR 31N78W AT 1100 UTC. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT BY MON MORNING AS THE TROUGHING SLACKENS HERE. AS THE TROUGHING DIMINISHES...THE RIDGE AXIS THAT CURRENTLY LIES FROM 29N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD. THE RIDGE SHOULD REACH FROM 30N65W TO HOBE SOUND SUN AND FROM 31N65W TO CAPE CANAVERAL TUE BEFORE STALLING. FRESH TRADES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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