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AGXX40 KNHC 190551
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
151 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED E TO OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF AND SHOULD SHIFT E OVER THE NE WATERS LATER TODAY. LOCAL VSBY 5 SM IN FOG NEAR 28.5N88.5W AND INTRODUCED INTO WEATHER GRIDS FOR FIRST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF THE TX COAST LATE TONIGHT...CONTINUE E ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL WATERS ON MON AND THROUGH THE NE GULF ON MON NIGHT. OTHER GUIDANCE HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE GFS WHICH TURNS ON NE-E 15-20 KT FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF BRIEFLY ON MON AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT NE-E WINDS LATE MON...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING E ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL ON TUE. EXPECT THE LOCALIZED EVENING THERMAL ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BE IN THE 15 KT RANGE EACH EVENING THROUGH WED EVENING...THEN THE EVENING EVENTS WILL BE IN THE 15- 20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THESE E-SE PULSES WILL PROPAGATE W ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS... WITH THE TROUGH LOSING IDENTITY OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOONS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND AFTER TUE NIGHT. TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...THEN THE AFFECTED AREA SHOULD SHRINK TO WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST EACH NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. E-SE TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT... NOTING THAT THE AFFECTED AREA WILL EXPAND N TO ALONG 18.5N TONIGHT...THEN THE AFFECTED AREA SHOULD SHRINK A LITTLE SOUTHWARD AS THE ATLC RIDGING WEAKENS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. N SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF LEEWARDS TODAY...INCREASING THE COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT AND REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD S ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS TONIGHT REACHING THE NE COAST OF S AMERICA ON MON...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM THE N WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS BY NOON TUE. THE NEXT ROUND OF NNE SWELL WILL REACH 19N55W ON WED EVENING DRIVING THE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 8 FT AGAIN...WITH THESE CONDITIONS REACHING THE E CARIBBEAN PASSAGES LATE THU AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRI.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N72W TO 29N77W TO 30N81W WILL MOVE E...ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT...REACHING A PSN FROM 31N60W TO 27N70W THIS EVENING...THEN STALL E-W ALONG ABOUT 27N EARLY MON AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT THROUGH TUE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS TONIGHT WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING E ACROSS THE AREA N OF 28N W OF 73W BY LATE MON NIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING E OFF THE SE GA/NE FL COASTS LATE MON NIGHT. THIS SECOND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N70W TO THE NW BAHAMAS LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN STALL FROM 31N62W TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF N SWELLS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N E OF 60W LATE MON GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS TO 7-11 FT ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 65- 55W BY LATE TUE. THIS SECOND ROUND OF N SWELLS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW 8 FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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