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AGXX40 KNHC 271804
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
204 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLIES OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS RESULTING IN A WEAK FLOW REGIME WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE NW GULF WITH GUSTY WINDS IN AND AROUND THESE STORMS.

UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON A WEAK LOW AND TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF ON MONDAY. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE BASIN. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LOW CERTAINTY OF THIS OCCURRING...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS MAINLY BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS 5 FT OR LESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZATION IS FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THEN POTENTIALLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY MID WEEK.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE AND GASTON NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IS KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE CARIBBEAN...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE ATLANTIC MOVE FARTHER FROM THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC...RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN BEGINNING SUNDAY. BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PERSISTING LATE INTO THE WEEK. MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY. AN ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH THIS WAVE.

ELSEWHERE...LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT GENERATED BY GASTON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 18N E OF 57W INTO THIS EVENING.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 31N67W WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWESTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTS. SE TO S WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EAST OF THE LOW...BEFORE THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF 31N TO NO LONGER HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT MARINE AFFECTS ON OUR AREA OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A 1009 MB LOW BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS HAD PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT CROSSES THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE KEPT WINDS LIMITED TO 15 TO 25 KT. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...S FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL CUBA...BEFORE THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE ATLANTIC BASIN. LARGE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM GASTON WILL PERSIST IN FORECAST WATERS BETWEEN 55- 60W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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