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AGXX40 KNHC 191808
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
208 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC WATERS INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE SW N ATLC WATERS ON SAT WHILE THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SE GULF WATERS. AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD...THE TROUGH WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY FRESHEN OVER THE NE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN LATE SAT WHICH WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WILL DIMINISH TO A GENTLE BREEZE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 3 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF CUBA WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 2 FT OR LESS W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH SAT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW SAT AFTERNOON WITH SEAS IN THAT AREA BUILDING TO 8 FT. THE LOW WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA EARLY SUN WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG WINDS AND 8 FT SEAS DECREASING BY SUN NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE NW WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHER THAN THE AREA OF WINDS AND SEAS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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