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AGXX40 KNHC 280921 AAA
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
521 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

UPDATED TO REMOVE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS BASED ON 09Z FORECAST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.


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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS MOVING INTO THE NW GULF WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING OCCURRING WITHIN 60-90 OF SHORE BETWEEN 91W AND 97W. OTHERWISE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE BASIN. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE NE GULF WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE RETURN FLOW ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 2 FT OR LESS IN THE NE GULF...4-6 FT IN THE NW GULF...AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GET DISRUPTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. NEW HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP JUST S OF LOUISIANA BY SUN AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THEN...EXCEPT OFFSHORE OF THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE DIURNAL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING W-NW AND OFFSHORE INTO THE NW GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W WILL REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG 57W WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY EARLY SUN...THEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE MON INTO TUE...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THEREAFTER. AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE TROPICAL WAVES.

OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING LOCATED IN THE SW N ATLC CONTINUES TO DISRUPT CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING. LOW PRESSURE TYPICALLY FOUND OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL ALSO BE WEAKER THAN NORMAL FURTHER HELPING TO KEEP A WEAK PATTERN. AS A RESULT...MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXCEPT LIGHT TO GENTLE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...EXCEPT 4-7 FT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE... AND 1-3 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE WEAKEST WINDS WILL BE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS CENTERED NEAR 29.5N 76.4W AS OF 2 AM EDT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS STILL AT 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 8-12 FT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS FOUND IN THE NE QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATE THIS MORNING WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE W-NW...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN MORE TO THE NW AND THEN N LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK TROUGHS MAY IMPACT THE WATERS WITH BRIEF WIND SHIFTS...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ONCE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEPARTS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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