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AGXX40 KNHC 050552
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
152 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS SWINGING SE ACROSS THE NE GULF AND ENHANCED CONVECTION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE SAME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THUS WILL BE DENOTED IN WEATHER GRIDS. A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH ANALYZED OVER THE NE GULF HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE SW LA COAST. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT W TO THE CENTRAL WATERS EARLY TODAY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO THE FL STRAITS...AND A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE NE TX COAST. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND SW ACROSS THE BAHAMA CHANNEL TO THE FL STRAITS LATE TODAY...THEN SHIFT NW ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF WATERS THROUGH SUN...THEN SHIFT N OFF THE W-CENTRAL FL COAST ON MON AND LOSE IDENTITY BY TUE AS WEAK HIGH PRES EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF N OF 23N THROUGH TUE...THEN THE SE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL GULF ON TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.

AN INVERTED THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THEN MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS...GENERALLY TO THE S OF 22N BETWEEN 90-93W DURING THE EVENING THROUGH LATE NIGHT HOURS...REACHING ALONG 94-95W DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NE-E 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN EXPECT ONLY 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL EVENTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NOCTURNAL TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST AND ALSO ALONG THE FAR NW COAST OF VENEZUELA. NE-E SWELLS WILL GENERATE COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT AS FAR W AS 13N78W THIS AFTERNOON...THEN COMBINED SEAS OF ONLY 4-7 FT ARE EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA OF ENHANCED WINDS FROM SUN-WED.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH SUN...AND PASS THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN ON SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY...PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON MON AND TUE. EXPECT A MODERATE-FRESH NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT NEAR THE WAVES.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 22N55W TO 24N79W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N71W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE SE FL COAST. THE LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS N OF THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN THROUGH SUN...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH ALONG 80W ON MON...AND MOVE INLAND FL ON MON NIGHT. BY THEN A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED NEAR 26N65W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT N TO NEAR 29N69W ON TUE NIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO PORT CANAVERAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT W TO NEAR 28N75W ON WED. EXPECT E-SE 10-15 KT FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF THE RIDGE EACH NIGHT BEGINNING ON SUN NIGHT...OTHERWISE 5-10 KT FLOW NEAR THE RIDGE AND LOW AND TROUGH.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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