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AGXX40 KNHC 060632
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
232 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS FOR WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT WILL WEAKEN FROM WED NIGHT ONWARD. MODERATE E TO SE TRADES WILL PREVAIL PRIMARILY S OF 26N WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS IN THE NW GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING...MOVING W EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...AND THEN DISSIPATING IN THE SW GULF EACH DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF WILL PRODUCE A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH FRI MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GFS FORECAST AND THE NWPS WAVE FORECAST.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS FOR WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A PERSISTENT RIDGE N OF THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF 30N AND LOW PRES ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI...WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS A BIT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY SHRINKING AND SHIFTING W THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE THEN GRADUALLY EXPANDING IN AREA WED THROUGH FRI.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY TONIGHT...REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE TUE AND EXIT THE AREA BY WED NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE TODAY...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUE NIGHT AND EXIT THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE GFS/NWPS FORECASTS LOOK REASONABLE OVER THE AREA AND WERE USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS AND 12Z EC WAVE FOR WAVES. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1026 MB HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR BERMUDA LATER TODAY WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR 30N76W WED THROUGH FRI IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS TO ITS E. OTHERWISE MODERATE E TO SE TRADES S OF 27N ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PREFERENCE TO ADD THE EC WAVE TO THE FORECAST AS IT GENERALLY DOES BEST WITH SWELL IN THE OPEN ATLC.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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