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AGXX40 KNHC 260611
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
211 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND STALL OUT ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY...DISSIPATING BY WED. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON THURSDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MOVING WEST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN EACH NIGHT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN LOW WED THROUGH SAT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WEDNESDAY...BECOMING ILL DEFINED AS IT CROSSES FROM THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRES NEAR 43W WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY DEVELOP FROM THIS SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION...THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CALLS FOR 20 TO 30 KT WINDS IN THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY...AND THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY BUT DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY AFTERWARDS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS ALONG 31N. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO ABOUT 30N THROUGH TODAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY TONIGHT THEN TRANSITIONING TO A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AS IT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THIS FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS NORTH OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND A TROPICAL LOW MOVING INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FRIDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...WEAK RIDGING AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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