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AGXX40 KNHC 040737
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
337 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE LOW PRES PREVIOUSLY LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. A RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING W ACROSS THE GULF REGION ALONG 26N. A HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE E CENTRAL GULF TODAY AND SHIFT N THROUGH THU BEFORE MERGING AGAIN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ON FRI. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT.

A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE NW DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING LATE MORNING HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED WINDS UP TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS WILL AGAIN PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE N. SEAS OF 12-14 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WIND SPEEDS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED MORNING. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS HAS ALREADY EXPANDED EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALSO IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE N. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI AS THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE N WEAKENS AND AN INVERTED TROUGH BUILDS N OF THE NE CARIBBEAN.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 78W/79W IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY AND EXIT THE AREA THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED NIGHT...REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THU NIGHT AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY FRI NIGHT AND SAT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE NW WATERS BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 29N65W TO PALM BEACH AND A SURFACE LOW THAT HAS JUST MOVED OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TODAY AS THE LOW PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO W WATERS WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS BY LATE WED AND WILL PERSIST ON THU BEFORE MERGING BACK INTO THE WEAKENED RIDGE AXIS BY FRI. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BUILD OVER E WATERS WED THROUGH FRI AS THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH WEAKENS.

ONCE AGAIN...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...PARTICULARLY S OF 22N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE THE WEAKENED RIDGE DIMINISHES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO WED.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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