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AGXX40 KNHC 310755
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
355 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TUE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N92W. THE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD TODAY...REACHING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF BY LATE TODAY. A STRONGER FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND SAT WILL REINFORCE THE FIRST FRONT. THE MERGED FRONTS WILL SWEEP THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH LATE SAT. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT WILL ALLOW STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF. GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE AT TIMES...AND A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE STARTING EARLY SAT. LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOTED. LATEST NWPS AND MM3 OUTPUT INDICATE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NE GULF BY SAT. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES WILL PREVAIL. LOOKING AHEAD...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHERN GULF...ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND FRESH SE RETURN FLOW OFF TEXAS THROUGH MON. FOR TUE...THE ECMWF REMAINS WEAKER THAN THE GFS AND UKMET WHICH SHOW SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW THROUGH THE STRAITS AND OFF TEXAS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN ROUGHLY JAMAICA AND PANAMA IS MOVING INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE SEEM TO BE ABOUT 2 TO 4 FT EVERYWHERE CURRENTLY. SEAS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI THEN W OF THE AREA SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE FRI. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT AFTERNOON WHERE ITS FORWARD PROGRESS WILL SLOW. A SECOND FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SAT. THE SECOND FRONT WILL CATCH UP WILL THE INITIAL SLOWED FRONT EARLY SUN AND THE MERGED FRONTS WILL SHIFT E AND STALL FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS BY EARLY MON AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY TUE. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG NE BREEZES ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUE BEHIND THE MERGED FRONT...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST 8 FT OVER EXPOSED PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST. A PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 27N73W AND N OF THE LEEWARDS NEAR 21N64W. THE WEAK FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION TODAY AS IT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SE. A STRONGER FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES WILL OVERTAKE AND MERGE WITH THE FIRST FRONT TONIGHT. THE MERGED FRONTS WILL REACH FROM 31N72W TO NW CUBA BY LATE SAT. COLD AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA...ALLOWING WINDS TO GALE FORCE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 TO 19 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. SHORTER PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL ENVELOP THE ATLC WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS LATE SAT THROUGH LATE MON. WINDS WILL INCREASE S OF 27N BY MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND THE WATERS BETWEEN NE FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING POSITION TIMING AND IMPACT OF THIS PATTERN.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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