Home


000
AGXX40 KNHC 300759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
359 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

PRODUCT RELEASED EARLY FOR COMPUTER MAINTENANCE


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW GULF INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING...ENHANCING THE LOCAL TROUGHING ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICTED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL FLORIDA IS ALLOWING 20 KT NE WINDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY REACHING 6 TO 8 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AND LOCAL EVENING TROUGHING OVER THE NW YUCATAN DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT. THE TROUGHING WILL ENHANCE OVERNIGHT WINDS OFF NW YUCATAN AND IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED DATA INDICATE WINDS ARE REACHING 20 TO 25 KT FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE CAYMANS AND JAMAICA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF SHEAR LINE REACHING FROM NEAR SANTIAGO CUBA TO SWAN ISLAND. THE ENHANCED FLOW IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE SHORTENED FETCH ON THE LEE SIDE OF CUBA...SEAS ARE LIMITED TO 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM JET OVERHEAD IS MAINTAINING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM BELIZE THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA. STRONG NE WINDS ARE ALSO FUNNELING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON A 03 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS. THE SAME PASS INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OFF COLOMBIA. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...SWELL TO 7 FT IN NOTED AT BUOY 41300 ABOUT 200 NM E OF GUADELOUPE DUE TO NE SWELL.

THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN AND THE SHEAR LINE TO DISSIPATE AS WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOWING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAILING OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...INCREASING SOMEWHAT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAILING AFTERWARDS. NE SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE REACHING 5 TO 6 FT BY TUE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING WEST ACROSS BERMUDA THIS MORNING IS ENHANCING NEARBY SURFACE WINDS WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS NOTED N OF 28N E OF 70W. BUOYS INDICATE AN AREA OF NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS REACHING 8 TO 10 FT GENERALLY N OF 25N E OF 75W. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING ALONG WITH THE EXITING UPPER DISTURBANCE. WAVE HEIGHTS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL PERSIST N OF 25N W OF 70W THROUGH LATE TODAY BUT GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE EAST TOWARD BERMUDA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SHOW RELATED STRONG WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS STAYING N OF THE AREA. A THIRD SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS REVISED TO FOLLOW TRENDS IN THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON WED N OF 30N W OF 75W. ELSEWHERE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING RIDGING WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Home