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AGXX40 KNHC 011801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
201 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE GULF REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DIMINISHING MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF LATE SUN INTO MON. CURRENTLY...THE MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE U.S. SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 28N E OF 88W IN A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOTED OVER THE NW GULF. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR TSTMS.

A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING...PUSHING OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATING IN THE SW GULF EACH MORNING. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PULSING WINDS TO 20-25 KT AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH EACH EVENING AND NIGHT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAM LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AERIAL EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE TRADES WILL INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING AS A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AT THAT TIME...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS E WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13-14 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ANOTHER MINIMAL GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SAT FOLLOWED BY A SURGE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUN...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON MON ENHANCING THE TRADE WINDS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON MON FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 10-11 FT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AND FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE N WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN...EXPECT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SE-S WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT S OF 27N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PULSING 20-25 KT EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS THROUGH MON NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT WITH THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. THE COVERAGE AREA OF THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUN AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E-SE WINDS EXTENDING WESTWARD BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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