Home


000
AGXX40 KNHC 131911
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
211 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

HIGH PRES HAS COLLAPSED ACROSS NW GULF AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF. FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR SANIBEL ISLAND TO 26N90W TO SE TX COAST. STRONG 1040+ MB HIGH PRES ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS IS BUILDING SE INTO THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT ATTM. FRESH NLY FLOW ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF GULF THIS MORNING ARE GRADUALLY VEERING NNE AND DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY. SEAS HAVE BUILT SLIGHTLY TO A BROAD AREA OF 5-6 FT THERE. OTHERWISE...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING ATTM WITH MODERATE SEAS OF 3-4 FT ACROSS SE PORTIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FL PENINSULA TO THE KEYS AND SE GULF BY 00Z THIS EVENING AND ACROSS STRAITS AND ENTRANCE OF YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NW CUBA BY EARLY SUN MORNING...WHILE W PORTION SNAGS ACROSS SE TX AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD AS CONVERGENCE ZONE. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 7 FT ACROSS SE PART OVERNIGHT BEHIND FRONT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...AS STRONGEST PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TO THE S ACROSS THE N AND NW CARIB.

MODEL IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH NEXT FRONT MOVING INTO NW GULF AROUND 00Z TUE...AND SNAGGING ACROSS SE TX COAST IN SAME MANNER AS CURRENT FRONT...PUSHING S AND ALIGNING E-W ACROSS N AND NE PORTIONS THROUGH TUE. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT WITH THIS FEATURE AND NOW MOVE SUPPORTING LOW MORE NE ACROSS ERN SEABOARD.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

REMNANTS OF STATIONARY FRONT HAVE MEANDERED NW ACROSS WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE COAST OF HONDURAS...BUT WILL BE FORCED BACK TO THE SE TONIGHT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. STRONG HIGH PRES WELL N OF NEXT FRONT BRIDGING ACROSS THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND INDUCING TIGHTENING OF PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIB ALONG AND NW OF OLD BOUNDARY. DESPITE THE FACT THAT WE SAY THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE IN OUR SYNOPSIS...MODELS SHOW WELL DEFINED SHEAR AXIS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NW CARIB INDICATING BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST. LARGE ZONE OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS NW CARIB YIELDING SEAS 6-8 FT THERE. 42056 HAS JUST INCREASED FROM 6 TO 7 FT IN PAST HOUR WITH MAX SWH TO THE SE OF THERE...AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 9 FT ATTM. NEXT FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS STRAITS OF FL AND YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE TONIGHT AND STALL ALONG ABOUT 22N SUN AND STRONG HIGH SHIFTS E TO MID ATLC COAST. STRONG NE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NW PART DURING THIS TIME WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-9 FT WITH MAX OF 10 FT BY SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL FRESHEN SUN THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AS RIDGE BUILDS SE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. PRES GRAD INDUCED ACROSS COLOMBIA BASIN TONIGHT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES 06-12 OR 15Z SUN AND THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT...WHERE PEAK WINDS COULD REACH 40 KT PER GFS SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WITH RIDGE SHIFTING E INTO W ATLC...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING THE TROPICAL N ATLC.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

STATIONARY FRONT OVER SE WATERS HAS DRIFTED NW TODAY BUT WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TO THE SE TONIGHT AS NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA CONTINUES SE OVERNIGHT AND SUN. FRONT CURRENTLY FROM 31N69W TO PALM BEACH WITH STRONG SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT WITHIN 120 NM SE OF FRONT N OF 28N. RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWED NNW WINDS 20 KT BEHIND FRONT ACROSS FAR NW WATERS WHILE BROAD AREA OF STRONG GALES IS OCCURRING N OF 33N. FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND REACH FROM 27.5N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY 12Z SUN...FROM 26.5N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY 12Z MON AND THEN LIFT N AND BECOME DIFFUSE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACHES E COAST. NW WINDS 20-25 KT WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS N WATERS TONIGHT THEN SHIFT OUT OF AREA SUN. HOWEVER...PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG HIGH BEHIND FRONT AND THE SLOWING BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE ZONE OF STRONG NE WINDS TO THE N OF FRONT LATE SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT. BUILDING NE WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH NW SWELL TO PRODUCE SEAS 7-9 FT BEHIND FRONT BY SUN EVENING...BUILDING TO 8-12 FT BY MON AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN TO ALSO LIGHT UP NE WINDS THROUGH THE BAHAMAS WITH ROUGH SEAS IN LEE OF ISLANDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO 8 FT THROUGH SE PASSAGES BY MON MORNING. SHIFT IN GUIDANCE NO LONGER SUPPORTS GALES ACROSS N WATERS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Home