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AGXX40 KNHC 260741
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
241 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A NEW COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE GULF REACHING FROM 30N83W TO 26N92W TO 26N97W. THE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND IT AND FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS N OF 26N AHEAD OF IT. SEAS ARE 7-11 FT N OF 25N. S OF THE FRONT...1025 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED IN THE W CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N96W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE E TOWARD WESTERN CUBA. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE S OF 25N ALONG WITH 2-4 FT SEAS.

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY DIVE TO THE SE EXTENDING FROM 25N81W TO 22N87W TO 20N95W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING THE BASIN THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE RESIDUAL NW SWELL SUBSIDES TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY TUE MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE HIGH IN THE W CENTRAL GULF WILL LINGER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH WED MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE NE GULF WATERS TUE...PUSHING E OF THE GULF BY WED MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF RETURN TO FRESH WINDS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE E OF 86W.

HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE WED WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF BY WED NIGHT ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS...EXCEPT UP TO 4-5 FT IN THE SE GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THU. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF THU NIGHT REACHING FROM APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS BY FRI MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ONLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT UNLIKE THE PRECEDING FRONTAL PASSAGES.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY 8-11 FT. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK AT 30 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS DURING PEAK NOCTURNAL FLOW. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT (MON NIGHT) THROUGH WED...THEN WILL INCREASE BACK TO 20-30 KT WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS YET AGAIN.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. THIS FRONT IS LOSING DEFINITION AND WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CLIP THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPACT.

A VERY SHARP PRES GRADIENT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR THE NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA CARIBBEAN COASTS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS WITHIN 60-90 NM OFFSHORE TUE MORNING THROUGH THU MORNING WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-10 FT.

OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SEAS OF 4-7 FT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE WEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT AND EXTENDS FROM 27N65W TO CUBA NEAR 22N77W. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA NW OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT IN THE NW CORNER OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA WHERE RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM 31N76W TO 28N78W TO 25N81W THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FROM 31N66W TO 28N68W TO 24N71W TO 20N76W LATE TONIGHT (MON NIGHT)...THEN FROM 31N62W TO 27N65W TO 20N71W TUE EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 18 FT NEAR 30N74W LATE TONIGHT...THEN UP TO 20 FT NEAR 31N71W BY SUNRISE TUE.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION TUE MORNING HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. THAT NEXT FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N67W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED MORNING...THEN WILL MERGE WITH AND OVERTAKE THE OLD FRONT AS IT EXITS TO THE E OF 65W BY THU MORNING.

THESE ACTIVE CONDITIONS FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY THU MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HILTON HEAD SOUTH CAROLINA TO 23N65W BY 12 UTC THU. THIS HIGH WILL GET PUSHED TO THE SE TO NEAR 28N75W BY FRI MORNING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE NW PORTION AS IT REACHES FROM 31N77W TO 27N80W FRI MORNING. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXTEND FROM 31N68W TO NEAR JUPITER FLORIDA FRI EVENING... THEN WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE ALONG 28N THROUGH SAT MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS REMAINING N OF 30.5N.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TUE.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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