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AGXX40 KNHC 220631
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
231 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AT 22/0300 UTC RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 19.4N 92.9W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT. T.D. NINE IS FORECAST TO INTENSITY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH EARLY TODAY AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD...AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING. ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW.

ASIDE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SW TEXAS COAST. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS OUTSIDE THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE NW GULF AND 1-3 FT OVER THE NE GULF.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK...AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY SAT. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH SAT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF T.D. NINE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON THE WINDS AND SEAS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS ASSOCIATED TO THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 4-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DIMINISHES THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE. THE CURRENT FORECAST INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK AS A 30 KT SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE INTERACTION OF A FEW OTHER PLAYERS MAKE THIS A DIFFICULT FORECAST. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND AS WELL AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THESE FEATURES AND POTENTIAL CONVERGENCE OF ENERGY WILL INTERACT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHWEST WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA THU AFTERNOON...THEN STALL ROUGHLY ALONG 27N BY LATE FRI. A LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THE STALLED BOUNDARY SE ON SAT AND EXTEND FROM THE NE WATERS TO CENTRAL CUBA BY SUN NIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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