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AGXX40 KNHC 250759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
359 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST NWPS MODEL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A MODERATE NE- SW PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF IS PRODUCING E TO SE WINDS UP TO FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS. TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE AN ACCENTUATION OF WINDS TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS IN THE SW GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DIURNAL THERMAL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES DAILY OVER THE YUCATAN. THE SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GFS FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE NWPS MODEL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A MODERATE N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING WINDS UP TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AN 0215Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS MEASURED E WINDS UP TO 25 KT JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO FRESH BREEZE OR WEAKER BY FRIDAY AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH SUNDAY.

BUOY 42058 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A 0310Z TOPEX PASS ARE INDICATING 9-10 FT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS. THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW 8 FT BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT LONG PERIOD SWELL AFFECTING THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING WITH WAVE AXES NEAR 79W AND 57W. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVE WITH THESE FEATURES.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GFS FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE NWPS MODEL FOR WAVES. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N66W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 28N70W WHERE IT BECOMES A TROUGH TO 25N74W. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS UPPER TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOME OF THE UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD...BUT A PORTION WILL REMAIN NEAR THE BAHAMAS AS A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW. THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES VERY SLOWLY REACHING ONLY 75W IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH ABOUT DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM INTO A DEEP CYCLONE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT IT COULD BECOME A LOW BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY NEAR THE GEORGIA-SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WOULD NOT BE A BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT. A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON GAVE THE SYSTEM A 30 PERCENT...LOW...OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN FIVE DAYS. AN UPDATED SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TODAY BY 20Z.

WITH LIMITED DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED CURRENTLY...PEAK WINDS NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE INDICATED TO REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS REMAINING BELOW 8 FEET. ELSEWHERE TRADEWINDS WILL REMAIN AS MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE.

NO SUBSTANTIAL SWELL ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LANDSEA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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