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AGXX40 KNHC 261858
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
158 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH ASCAT AND RAPIDSCAT DATA INDICATE STRONG NW TO N WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE BASIN THIS MORNING...DIMINSHED FROM GALES THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. BOUY AND ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE SEAS ARE STILL 8T O 12 FT OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF HIGH PRES IS ALREADY EVIDENT OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W AND WINDS OVER THE NW GULF ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KT. THIS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AHEAD OF REINFORCING FRONT NOW PUSHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH STATES AND FAR NE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF STRONG W TO NW WINDS TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WATERS BY THU MORNING. HIGH PRES BUILDING NORTH OF AREA BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL KEEP STRONG NE TO E WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLROIDA AND SE GULF INTO FRI...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AND BECOMING E WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WILL PERSIST...WITH SE RETURN FLOW INCREASING BRIEFLY TO 20 KT OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT. NO SIGNFICANT DIFFERENCE IN SUFACE MODEL OUTPUT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BY MON.

A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS WESTERN CUBA THIS MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STARTING TO PENETRATE THE YUCTAN CHANNEL BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MOVE DOWN THE MEXICAN COAST. ELSEWHERE VARIOUS SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATED STRONG WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING...WITH 15 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL 7 TO 9 FT IN THESE AREAS AS WELL.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI. WEAKENED RIDGING OVER THE NW ATLC HOWEVER WILL KEEP RELATIVELY LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA INTO SAT. THIS PATTERN WILL START TO REVERSE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES OVER THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES SHIFTS E INTO THE ATLC...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SHOWING GALE CONDITIONS OFF COLOMBIA BY MON WITH 30 KT WINDS IN THE UKMET...IN CONSTRAST TO THE PARALLEL GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE LIGHTER WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS A COMPROMISE RELECTING UKMET SOLUTION JUST BELOW 30 KT FOR MON.


...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ASCAT DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRONG WINDS N OF 27N W OF 75W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA THIS MORNING. WINDS WERE POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OR AT LEAST THERE WERE GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE GULF STREAM WATERS. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ACTIVE NEAR THE FRONT AS WELL. JUDGING FROM BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND THE WINDS...SEAS WERE LIKELY 8 TO 12 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. ELSEWHERE A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG ROUGHLY 27N IS EXITING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST AND REACH FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY THU...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND INTO THE ATLC TOMORROW...EVENUTALLY MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONT THU NIGHT. COLD AIR BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NW WINDS TO THE WATERS N OF 29N W OF 75W AGAIN ON THU WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE COMBINED FRONT WILL REACH FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO SE CUBA BY FRI MORNING...THEN STALL FROM 25N65W TO SE CUBA BY EARLY SAT. RIDGING BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL BUILD OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MAINTAIN A BAND OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TCI SUN INTO MON. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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