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AGXX40 KNHC 300619
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
219 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE E CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF. THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO SUPPORT CONVECTION EACH DAY. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING EACH EVENING...PUSHING OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATING IN THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM OF SHORE W OF 90W...AND PULSATING TO 20 KT NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING EACH NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH AREA LENGTHENS SOMEWHAT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRI. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BRINGING A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WITH IT. WINDS WILL PULSATE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS STARTING FRI NIGHT DUE TO A LOCAL DIURNALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 8-12 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE TROUGHING MAY MANAGE TO OCCASIONALLY SNEAK OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS EACH DAY. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE BASIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MAINLY MODERATE RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN AROUND THE RIDGING...PULSATING TO FRESH TO STRONG OFFSHORE OF HISPANIOLA FROM AROUND 06 UTC TO 18 UTC EACH DAY...STARTING LATER TODAY. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3-5 FT...BUILDING TO 5-8 FT IN E-SE SWELL S OF 24N LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS THROUGHOUT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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