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AGXX40 KNHC 260624
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
124 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A POST-FRONTAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MS DELTA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. NE 15-20 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE SE GULF INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME E AT 10-15 KT THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CURRENTLY AT 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NW WATERS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE THIS MORNING...WITH 15 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BECOMING 5-10 KT S-SW FLOW ON SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON SAT EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM S-CENTRAL LA TO 20N96W ON SUN WITH 15- 20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BRIEFLY AROUND MIDDAY SUN. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW ON SUN NIGHT AS IT PASSES A LINE FROM THE MS DELTA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE MON AND DRIFT W AND WASH OUT ON TUE. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE TUE WITH NE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE NW GULF...NE 15-20 KT ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL WATERS AND N-NE 10-15 KT FLOW OVER THE NE WATERS ON TUE NIGHT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS. THE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING ENE 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN BASIN AND ALONG THE SE COAST OF CUBA...AND NE-E 10-15 KT FLOW ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS...SEAS TO 15 FT...CURRENTLY ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY...HOWEVER POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN NE-E LOW LEVEL FLOW AT 20-30 KT ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN...WITH MOSTLY NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT NE 20-25 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 20-30 KT WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS ONLY THE CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 11-17N BETWEEN 69-79W...NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE S OF 18N E OF 80W...AND NE-E 10-15 KT WINDS W OF 80W ON TUE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT FROM 31N67W TO CENTRAL CUBA IS PRECEDED BY SW 15 KT WINDS N OF 29N WITHIN ABOUT 270 NM E OF THE FRONT. N-NE 10-15 KT WINDS OBSERVED W OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMA BANK AND BAHAMA CHANNEL ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SUPPORTING A W-NW 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS ALONG THE FRONT LATER TODAY. EXPECT THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...SEAS 9-14...ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 27N E OF 63W THIS EVENING...WITH N-NE 15-20 KT WINDS EVERYWHERE N OF 22N E OF 67W LATE SAT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING S ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 24N E OF 73W ON SUN-TUE. THE ASSOCIATED N SWELL...RESULTING IN 7-10 FT SEAS...WILL PROPAGATE SW TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN PASSAGES ON SUN-MON...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON TUE.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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