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AGXX40 KNHC 310800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

PRODUCT RELEASED EARLY FOR COMPUTER MAINTENANCE


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK PRES PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING. 1023 MB HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES PERSIST IN MOST AREAS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT. THE EXCEPTION IS OFF THE NW COAST OF YUCATAN WHERE THE NORMAL OVERNIGHT TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN GULF MERGES WITH A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG NE WINDS. THE GFS REMAINS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE STRONGER UKMET AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ECMWF WITH WINDS REACHING 25 TO 30 KT IN THE FAR NW GULF AND 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...STALLING ALONG 26N BY LATE SAT BEFORE LIFTING N AGAIN STARTING LATE SAT.




...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE STRONG NE WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS MORNING...ON THE END OF A STATIONARY FRONT REACHING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER RECENT DATA NO LONGER SUPPORT THE PRESENCE OF A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING OFF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS...WHERE WINDS ARE 15 TO 20 KT AT MOST. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE PULSE OVERNIGHT OFF COLOMBIA...BUT OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 5 TO 7 FT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND 4 TO 6 FT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING PERSISTENT RIDGING CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMAS N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THE FRESH TRADES WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WEAKENS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTING INTO THE ATLC WATERS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH OVER MOST THE BASIN THROUGH WED. RIDGING WILL INCREASE AGAIN N OF THE AREA BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...ALLOWING FOR A GENERAL INCREASE IN TRADE WIND FLOW WITH PULSES OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA THU INTO FRI.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED AT 06 UTC OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST...NORTH OF 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 27N74W. FRESH SW FLOW IS NOTED BETWEEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE RIDGE...N OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA TONIGHT AND WED. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON SHOWING STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT N OF 30N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W LATE WED...KEEPING MOST OF THE STRONGER WINDS N OF THE AREA. THIS SECOND FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS 26N THROUGH LATE THU BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE LEAVING RIDGING ALONG ROUGHLY 30N THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS GFS AND UKMET REASONING FOR FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BY FRI S OF 22N W OF 65W.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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