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AGXX40 KNHC 231808
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
208 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY THURSDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTING EASTWARD...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE ENTIRE WATERS BY THU NIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILS NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEAK. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. THE BROAD TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRI BEFORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING N OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FRESHEN WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS BUILDING NEAR 8 FT BY LATE FRI.

GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE IN NE TO E SWELL. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT TONIGHT. A SET OF NW TO N SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS REACHING NEAR 9 FT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAKENING TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL REGION WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. ELSEWHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL N OF 25N WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE PREVAIL S OF 25N WITH SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1 TO 2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. A COLD FRONT TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN CENTRAL AND NE WATERS TONIGHT AND THU BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE BASIN THU NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY N OF 29N AND E OF 75W. NW SWELLS ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE WILL BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 12 FT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS BY LATE THU NIGHT. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SAT AND SUN ENABLING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS N OF 29N BY SUN NIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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