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AGXX40 KNHC 291902
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
302 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TWO COLD FRONTS MERGED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. THE MERGED FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO THE TAMAULIPAS COAST OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL ON FRI FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ON SAT. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NW OF THE FRONT THROUGH SAT. AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES...A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS COVERING MOST OF THE BASIN SUN THROUGH TUE. HURRICANE MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO PASS E OF FLORIDA AS IT MOVES N FROM EASTERN CUBA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW AFTERWARDS.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 88W WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED N OF COLOMBIA FOR THE TIME BEING AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC RIDGING AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA HAS BROKEN DOWN AS MATTHEW APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. WINDS AND SEAS IN THIS AREA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS MATTHEW APPROACHES FROM THE E.

MATTHEW HAS JUST BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT HEADS W THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 14.2N 67.1W. PRES GRADIENT ON THE NE SIDE OF MATTHEW IS MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF WINDS AND SEAS ON THE NE SIDE OF THE HURRICANE. ALTIMETRY FROM 0952 UTC THIS MORNING CONFIRMED 12 FT SEAS REACHING UP TO 480 NM TO THE NE OF THE CENTER OF MATTHEW...WELL TO THE E AND NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. BUOY 42059 N OF VENEZUELA REPORTED 26 FT SEAS AT 17Z. RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MAX SEAS NEAR THE CENTER OF MATTHEW ARE ALREADY GREATER THAN 30 FT AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MATTHEW IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NW...THEN N SOMETIME ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MATTHEW WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY N AND REACH EASTERN CUBA. MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY REGARDING SPEED OF ADVANCE AS IT TRACKS N EARLY NEXT WEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW AFTERWARDS.

SURFACE TROUGHING AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS POISED TO ENTER THE EXTREME NW WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY SAT AND DISSIPATE SUN.

N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND GREATER ANTILLES...FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT HAVE ALREADY MATERIALIZED. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES AND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH MATTHEW THROUGH FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TEMPORARILY ABATE IN THIS AREA FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS MATTHEW SLOWS DOWN AND MAKES ITS TURN N OF COLOMBIA. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS HIGH FOR MON AND BEYOND. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN STEERING MATTHEW NORTHWARD AS A HURRICANE ALONG 75W AFTER IT PASSES CUBA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE SPREAD OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ALONG THIS TRACK RESULTS IN A TIMING DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 48 HOURS.


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI. HURRICANE WARNING FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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