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AGXX40 KNHC 251740
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. NWPS BLENDED WITH WWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NW COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN SHIFT E ACROSS THE N GULF SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MON THROUGH TUE. S RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4- 5 FT...CONTINUE THROUGH TUE...THEN DIMINISH TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS ATLC HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND THE RIDGE WEAKENS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. NWPS BLENDED WITH WWW3. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE WILL STALL FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS TONIGHT. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 17N81W EARLY SUN...MOVE WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON AND TUE...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W WILL LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON. SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W WILL MOVE W ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND SUN...PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE...THEN REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED. THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS MON NIGHT AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN WED.

FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS S OF 20N WEST OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT THEN BACK TO NW THEN W-NW IF AS THE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AS EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE IN LINE WITH A CONSENSUS HERE TOWARD LOW DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEY VARY ON ITS LOCATION AND STRENGTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING OF THE LOW CENTER MEANDERING NEAR 17N81W ON SUN ACCOMPANIED BY NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE...THEN MOVING THE LOW W ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTING TO ITS N SEMICIRCLE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. NWPS BLENDED WITH WWW3. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO 1004 MB LOW PRES NEAR 27N72W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE LOW IS PASSING DIRECTLY OVER BUOY 41047...AND OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 33-37 KT AND GUSTS TO 41 KT REPORTED AT 1500 UTC TODAY...AND SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT AT 1600 UTC. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS...AND PASS N OF 31N TONIGHT WHILE DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N65W TO E CUBA. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM 28N65W TO HAITI LATE SUN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE THROUGH TUE. A RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ALONG 29N W OF THE FRONT SUN THROUGH TUE. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE E-NE FLOW ACROSS WATERS S OF 27N W OF 65W MON AND TUE WHILE WINDS WILL BE E AT 15-20 KT ACROSS WATERS S OF 28N WED.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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