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AGXX40 KNHC 200800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST MWW3 ALONG WITH NWPS PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE AREA PER LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WHERE A 1021 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED AT 29N92W. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOW WINDS FROM THE NW-N IN DIRECTION E OF 90W WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT N OF 25N...AND SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT S OF 25N. W OF 90W...WINDS HAVE VEERED AROUND TO THE E-SE AT 10 KT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW GULF WHERE WINDS ARE NE-E 10-15 KT. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0304 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED A SWATH OF NE 20 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE SW GULF. THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE W OF 90W WITH LOWERS SEAS OF 1-2 FT IN THE NW PORTION...AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT E OF 90W...WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE SEAS IN THE EASTERN PORTION. ALTIMETER DATA FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWED SIMILAR VALUES.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS TUE AND WED.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES PREVAILS N OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENERALLY FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT...EXCEPT FOR MUCH HIGHER SEAS TO 11 FT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEANSEA WITH SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE. W OF 80W...RECENT ASCAT DATA DEPICTED MAINLY GENTLE N-NE WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT W OF A LINE FROM EASTERN CUBA TO HONDURAS. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS STILL FORECAST TO RETREAT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOW PRES AT 31N78W TRACKS SLOWLY NEWD. WITH THE RIDGE RETREATING EASTWARD...THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LOOSEN ALLOWING FOR WIND SPEEDS TO DIMINISH. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER MON THROUGH TUE...AND REMAIN AT RATHER LOW VALUES THROUGH THU.

AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0118 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED A LARGE SWATH OF NE TO E 20-25 KT COVERING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 18N. BUOY REPORTS ALONG WITH AN RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE IN NE-E SWELLS WITH A FEW SMALL POCKETS OF 10 FT SEAS. SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MON...WITH SEAS THERE SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FT BY LATE MON...AND CONTINUING WITH LITTLE CHANGE INTO THU.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN WITH STRENGTH OF WINDS OVER FAR NW WATERS...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

THE LOW PRES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS THAT TRACKED ENE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE FAR NW WATERS IS PRESENTLY LOCATED AT 31N78W WITH A PRES OF 1011 MB. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND SW TO WESTERN CUBA. A SQUALL LINE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS MARKED BY VERY ACTIVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM N OF 26N TO BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. RECENTLY DEVELOPED SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26N76W TO 24N77W. ALL OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTAINS FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS S OF 25N BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND 65W...MODERATE E-SE WINDS N OF 25N NE AND E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS W OF THE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW CORNER WHERE FRESH N WINDS ARE OBSERVED. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE S OF 25N BETWEEN 65W AND THE BAHAMAS WITH A FEW SMALL POCKETS OF 7-9 FT SEAS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. W OF THE BAHAMAS...SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE FROM 25N-27N...2-4 FT S OF 25N...AND 5-7 FT N OF 27N.

THE 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH SUN...THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE NE SUN NIGHT AND MON PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS. THE COLD FRONT AND PRECEDING SQUALL LINE WILL SHIFT E OF THE FORECAST WATERS TUE AS A WEAK PRES PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WED AND WED NIGHT...AND THE EASTERN PORTION WED NIGHT INTO THU. MOST MODELS OVERALL SUGGEST THAT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NW GENERALLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE. WILL EVALUATE FUTURE MODEL TRENDS WITH THIS WINDS TO SEE IF THEY TREND UPWARD AS A BROAD AREA OF FRESH NW WINDS WILL BE PRESENT JUST TO THE N OF 31N. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 9 FT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT MAY BE HIGHER DEPENDING IF WINDS TREND UPWARD ACROSS A VERY LARGE OCEANIC FETCH AREA.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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