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AGXX40 KNHC 280904
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
504 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS

A STATIONARY FRONT PERSISTS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO NEAR 22.5N90W TO NEAR 23.5N96.5W...ALONG THE SE FLANK OF ELONGATED MID-UPPER TROF SNAKING SW ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUING ALONG AND SE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. GFS FORECASTING THE FRONT TO GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE TONIGHT...WHILE UPPER TROUGH REORGANIZES AND LIFTS OUT TO THE NE SUN. OUTSIDE OF THIS CNVTN...WINDS AND SEAS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH PEAK SEAS ESTIMATED AT 3 FT.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR SUN AND MON CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING ERIKA...NOW MOVING W AND PASSING S OF PUERTO RICO. THE ILL DEFINED CENTER CONTINUES TO SHIFT WWD AND IS NUDGING THE FORECASTS BEYOND DAY 3 TO THE LEFT. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS FORECAST...WITH LATEST TRACK RUNNING N AND UP THE SPINE OF THE FL PENINSULA WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. A FURTHER SHIFT TO THE W WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE WIND FIELD TO AFFECT THE ERN GULF WATERS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCDAT5/WTNT45 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CURRENTLY MOVING WWD AND S OF THE MONA PASSAGE WITH T.S. FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIB WATERS OF PR AND WINDS JUST BELOW TS FORCE STILL BEING REPORTED ALONG S COASTS OF THE USVI. MOST OF THE PEAK WAVE ENERGY DEVELOPED DURING PAST 24 HOURS HAS SLAMMED INTO THE S AND SE COASTS OF THE ISLANDS OF THE NE CARIB PAST 6 HOURS BUT SOME FETCH WILL ACCOMPANY THE CORE OF ERIKA WWD AND INTO DOM REP LATER TODAY. TRAILING CNVTN SHOULD ALSO SHIFT WNW NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF PR AND HISPANIOLA FOR FF POTENTIAL.



LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN CURRENTLY. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE OFF WESTERN VENEZUELA LATE TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ERIKA. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE FOLLOWING ERIKA MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE EXPECTED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC WILL KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAK AND DISPLACED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PREVENT ANY LARGE SCALE INCREASE IN TRADES SUN THROUGH TUE EXCEPT FOR BRIEF OVERNIGHT PULSES OFF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA. MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ASSISTED BY DYNAMICS OF GULF OF MEXICO UPPER TROUGH. A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N66W AND YIELDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...ALL EYES ON ERIKA. LARGE WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING ERIKA ON APPROACH TO CARIB HAS PRODUCE A RESPECTABLE WAVE FIELD NOW PASSING N OF PR AND MOVING NW. BUOY 41043 STILL AT 10 FT PAST FEW HOURS AND PEAK ENERGY CENTERED ON 7-10 SECOND WAVE PERIODS. THIS WILL CONTINUE NW AND OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS TO REACH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA SAT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LARGELY HINGES ON EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA...WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCDAT5/WTNT45 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO SAT.
.AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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