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000
AGXX40 KNHC 151828
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
128 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A ridge axis extends across the northern Gulf coast and through
Tuesday will support mainly moderate to fresh E-SE winds, with
the exception of nighttime fresh to locally strong winds near and
to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula, due to local effects induced
by a thermal trough, and across the Straits of Florida. Seas will
remain generally between 4 and 7 ft, except around 8 ft in the
Straits of Florida.

Model guidance continues to indicate that the next cold front
will reach the coast of Texas by Tuesday night, then stall and
lift north while dissipating. Some shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected ahead of the frontal boundary that could
affect the far NW Gulf. This front will act to weaken the ridge
axis along the northern Gulf coast, which will allow for the
nocturnal Yucatan wind enhancements as well as strong winds over
the straits of Florida to diminish by Tuesday night. Another
cold front is then expected to enter the NW Gulf by Thursday
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N
BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

Strong high pressure north of the region combined with the
Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to
strong NE-E winds over the majority of the Caribbean Sea,
including through the Atlantic passages, and in the lee of Cuba
through Wednesday night. Near gale force winds are expected to
continue to pulse near the coast of Colombia each night during
this time period, with seas up to 11 ft. The ridge north of the
region will shift southeast, become elongated, and weaken later
this week. This will allow for trades across the Caribbean to
decrease by several knots beginning Thursday.

A swell event over the western Atlantic continues to propagate
through the Caribbean passages E of Hispaniola, and across the
Tropical N Atlantic zones. Seas are forecast to subside to 7-8
ft on Monday.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A broad area of fresh to strong northeasterly winds and northeast
swell that has been affecting the southern zones the past few
days is now becoming confined to mainly south of a line from the
Florida Straits to about 23N55W. These fresh to strong winds will
continue south of this line through Tuesday night. Seas to 8 ft
will be possible east of the central Bahamas during this time
period. To the north of this line, gentle to moderate winds and
seas of about 4 to 7 ft will prevail through mid week. High
pressure that has been in part responsible for supporting the
strong winds and large seas will slide southeastward to near
28N60W Wednesday while weakening. This will bring a decrease in
winds over the southern zones Wednesday through the end of the
forecast period. By Thursday night a cold front is forecast by
global models to approach the northern zones, which will bring
about an increase in winds to 20 to 25 kt with seas of 8 to 10
ft, mainly north of 28N as indicated with the latest model runs.


$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.

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