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AGXX40 KNHC 241905
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

NW WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE NW GULF CURRENTLY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT REACHES FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SE AND REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY TUE.

THE MAIN ISSUE BY LATE TUE WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON SHOWING A LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING RAPIDLY NE AHEAD OF DEEP LAYER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE AND WED. THE LOW PRES WILL ALLOW A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE GULF. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER RELATIVELY WARMER LOOP CURRENT WATERS WILL MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AN ARRAY OF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT INCLUDING THE GFS...GFS PARALLEL...UKMET. GFS ENSEMBLE AND SREF PROBABILITIES FOR GALES IN ALONG THE FRONT REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH AS WELL. THE ONLY HOLD OUT GALES IN THE CENTRAL AND NE GULF FOR TUE NIGHT IS THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS USUALLY WEAKER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. BUT EVEN THE ECMWF INDICATES GALES OFF VERACRUZ IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUE NIGHT. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF TUE NIGHT AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...EVEN IF SUSTAINED WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE NOT REACHED...FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY OVER THE NE GULF TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.

THE LOW PRES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NE OF THE GULF THROUGH EARLY WED...LEAVING THE TRAILING FRONT TO SAG THROUGH THE SE GULF THROUGH EARLY WED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THU FROM THE NW THROUGH SE GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PERSIST HOWEVER THROUGHOUT THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH FRI...AGAINST THE FLORIDA CURRENT KEEPING SEAS AT LEAST 8 FT OFF NW CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO EARLY SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GULF BY LATE SAT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...SOUTH OF RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS. BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF UP TO 10 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE THE EXCEPTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY LATE TUE AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN STARTING WED WITH SEAS TO FOLLOW THROUGH THU. THE FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY EARLY WED FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL OUTPUT CONCERNING THE PROBABILITY OF GALES IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE THU. THE GFS HAS REVERSED COURSE AND IS AGAIN SHOWING GALES FOR THEN...BUT THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN OTHER OUTPUT. WILL HOLD 30 KT FOR LATE THU IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. NWPS AND MWW3 ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT INDICATED SEAS TO 12 FT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI. THE STRONG WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF 28N W OF 77W ON ASCAT DATA THIS MORNING APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED ACCORDING TO SURROUNDING BUOY DATA. STRONG TRADES WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE NOTED S OF 22N HOWEVER TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REACHING FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRES AREA NEAR 35N60W THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SEAS TO 9 FT ARE NOTED ON BUOYS S OF 22N. BUOY ALSO SUGGEST EAST SWELL IS CONTRIBUTING TO HIGHER SEAS S OF 24N INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL EMERGE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY EARLY WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA BY THU AFTERNOON. FRESH NW TO NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE BAHAMAS S OF 25N AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT N OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER EAST AND STALLS FRI INTO SAT...BUT VARIOUS WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS TO 8 FT WILL PERSIST W OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE SAT. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT ON SENSABLE SURFACE WEATHER.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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