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AGXX40 KNHC 251812
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
212 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE SUN-MON.

A RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WHERE 3 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES NORTHWEST SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL EXPAND TO INCLUDE THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.

BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR WITH A TROPICAL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 21N72W. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THEREFORE...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE. FOR THE 1200 UTC FORECAST PACKAGE USED BLENDED GLOBAL MODELS WEIGHTED FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...INDICATING 20 TO 30 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOWER PRESSURE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NW OF PUERTO RICO AND TS GASTON IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...IS KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING NORTHWEST OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE...LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELL GENERATED BY GASTON IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 18N E OF 57W FRI.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LOW CONFIDENCE.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT AND TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR WITH A TROPICAL LOW CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FROM NEAR 21N72W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE DIVERGENT ON WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP...WHICH MAKES THE CURRENT FORECAST LOW CONFIDENCE. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE GALE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OCCURRING THE PAST 24 HOURS IS LIKELY ENDING SOON. BASED ON UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MODELS AND THE LATEST DATA...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ENDS THE GALE BY 0600 UTC TONIGHT...AND TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THEN CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KT MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. SEAS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS MAINLY BETWEEN 8 TO 12 FT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE LONG FETCH OF 20 TO 30 KT WINDS. SEAS IN THE PROTECTED AREAS OF THE BAHAMAS WITH THE 20 TO 30 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE...ANY MAJOR CHANGE WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD RESULT IN LARGE SHIFTS IN THE FORECAST.

ELSEWHERE...LARGE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH GASTON WILL REACH FORECAST WATERS BETWEEN 55-60W FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TO AFFECT ZONE AMZ115 SUN NIGHT AND MON.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY.
.AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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