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AGXX40 KNHC 161809
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
209 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE FRI AND SAT.

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON LATEST SURFACE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENTLY...GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS ARE SEEN PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED SEAS UP TO 11-12 FT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WEAK WARM FRONT THU. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AFTER THU HOWEVER. THE GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N87W BY FRI MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE NE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO SW N ATLC THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS MUCH STRONGER LOW DEVELOPMENT SE OF NEW ORLEANS FRI MORNING WHICH TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA THROUGH SAT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY FRI AT 1200 UTC AND ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS...FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SAT AT 1200 UTC. THE FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND STRENGHT OF THE LOW PRES. THE NEW RUN OF THE GFS CONTINUES TO CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW CENTER OVER THE NE GULF. SO...USED A BLEND OF 12Z RUN OF THE GFS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR NOW...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW COLD FRONT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRES N OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN AS A WEAK LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE SW ATLC WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED N OF 29N W OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 78W PER THE 1426 UTC ASCAT PASS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N TO NEAR 73W. LIGHT TO GENTLE E-SE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM 31N73W TO 27N79W TO 25N80W BY THU MORNING...THEN MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT REACHING FROM 31N78W TO 29N81W BY FRI MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LESSENS AFTERWARD. THE LOW PRES FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE COMPUTER MODELS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA BY SAT MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE N WATERS BY SUN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 31N71W TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE SUN.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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