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AGXX40 KNHC 281848
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
248 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT THEN LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BECOME DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH RUNS PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FEATURE FROM MOBILE BAY TO TAMPICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND REMOTE SENSED DATA INDICATE GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS OVER MOST OF THE GULF.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR SUN AND MON CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING ERIKA...NOW MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ERIKA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF ERIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE SUN...AND MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTH FLORIDA SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE PAST COUPLE OF FORECAST TRACKS HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE TO THE WEST...AND THE LATEST FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME INFLUENCE OF ERIKA ON THE EASTERN GULF MON INTO TUE AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCDAT5/WTNT45 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W-NW AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY. A LARGE BAND OF CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EAST OF THE CENTER N OF 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W. EARLIER REPORTS FROM NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT INDICATED SEAS WITHIN THIS BAND WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST...AND WAVE HEIGHT VALUES WERE MANUALLY ADJUSTED THROUGH LATE TODAY IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF ERIKA MOVES INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.

ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT LESS THAN NORMAL DUE THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE ADVANCE OF ERIKA. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS RIDGING BUILDS NORTH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF ERIKA AND SHIFTS WESTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY EARLY SAT AND THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS DEPICTING THIS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THERE AFTER AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC. EXPECT GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NIGHTLY PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OFF WESTERN VENEZUELA.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER THE NW BAHAMAS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE AREA. 1021 MB HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 29N65W. TO THE SOUTH OF HIGH...A 14 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED STRONG E TO SE WINDS OFF THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA SOON TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 15 FT IN A BROAD LOBE EXTENDING AS FAR AS 23N N OF HISPANIOLA.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND DEVELOP SLOWLY AS THE CENTER MOVES W-NW BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN APPROACHES SE FLORIDA SUN. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT WATERS OF AROUND BAHAMAS. THE FORECAST LARGELY HINGES ON EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA...WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCDAT5/WTNT45 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W... GALE WARNING TODAY.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... TROPICAL STORM WARNING SAT INTO SUN.
.AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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