Home


000
AGXX40 KNHC 290723
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
323 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.




...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES CENTERED OFF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ON THU AFTERNOON HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND MOVED INLAND. THE MAIN IMPACT IS A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST. NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF WATERS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY. ELSEWHERE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING...TO THE NORTH OF A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 23N92W TO NEAR TAMPA FL. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S CENTRAL GULF...AND WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF THROUGH TODAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE GULF AND RIDGING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH STATES IS ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT N THROUGH LATE TODAY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS SAT AND SUN ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE SW GULF SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAN BEFORE DEPICTING LOW PRES FORMING IN THE SW GULF ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE GFS AND CMC HAVE BEEN DEPICTING THIS. 00Z ECMWF AND UKMET ARE STARTING TO INDICATE A WEAK LOW. ALL MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING TO SOME DEGREE EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE SW GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE GFS AND CARRIES AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. RELATED NWPS OUTPUT SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE W CENTRAL GULF LATE MON AND TUE AS THE LOW PRES DRIFTS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS MAKING LANDFALL IN BELIZE AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. BUOY 42056 NEAR 20N85W INDICATED PEAK WINDS TO 23 KT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. A RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED ONLY 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER IN THE MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS WESTWARD BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TODAY.

A SECOND WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY S OF HISPANIOLA TO 15N...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF 15N IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE STRONG FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE NW GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT WILL ALLOW STRONG FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE BY LATE SATURDAY WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT...THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN NIGHT AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. A FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W ON MON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE TUE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH REACHING FROM THE NE GULF ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE ATLC WATERS TO AROUND 75W. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THIS TROUGH. FARTHER TO THE EAST...A RIDGE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ALONG ROUGHLY 27N THIS MORNING REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 70W. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PERSIST S OF 27N. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY AND TONIGHT WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 20 TO 25 KT IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS BUT WILL LIKELY BE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT TODAY AS RESIDUAL SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO DECAY. THE RIDGE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND ALLOW MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Home