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AGXX40 KNHC 110820
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
320 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH...THEN MEDIUM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SW WINDS OVER THE FAR NW GULF OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS HAVE BEEN INCREASING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BETWEEN 1028 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND WEAK TROUGHING INLAND OVER S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. THIS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL ALLOW MODERATE TO FRESH SW TO W WINDS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF INTO FRI. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 0125Z INDICATED SEAS ARE STILL 6 TO 8 FT OVER THE EASTERN GULF IN NW SWELL...BUT WILL SUBSIDE TO GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH LATE FRI. WARMER AND MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF HINTS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG BY LATE FRI...BUT MOISTURE LEVELS MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY AND FRI...THEN GET A REINFORCING PUSH FROM AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE FRI...AND SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH LATE SAT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF TEXAS BY LATE SAT. THE WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE GULF AS THE WEAKENED FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A NON-DESCRIPT WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE MON. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE UKMET FASTER AND THE GFS STRONGER THAN THE CONSENSUS. FORECAST FOLLOWS MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF FOR NOW SHOWING A LATE MON ENTRY INTO THE NW GULF WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

A COLD FRONT REACHING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY...REACHING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO SAN ANDRES ISLAND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN BY LATE TODAY THEN DISSIPATING TONIGHT. STRONG N TO NE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE FOCUS OF STRONGER WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD...SUPPORTING FANGS OF STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND LEE OF EASTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS TRADE WINDS TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE OFF OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA. THE GALES WILL DIMINISH FRI AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 FT OVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SAT THROUGH SUN...DIMINISHING SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS. LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN AS RIDGING N OF THE AREA WEAKENS...ALTHOUGH NE TO E SWELL TO 8 FT WILL MOVE INTO THE APPROACHES OF ATLC PASSAGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE MON THROUGH TUE.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...A MIX OF EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL AND LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT...SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN...THEN GETTING ANOTHER ROUND OF EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH...THEN MEDIUM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE WATERS N OF 30N THIS MORNING...FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT REACHES FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM 24N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TODAY...AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH FRI. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH INTO FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SW WINDS INCREASE OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA AHEAD OF AN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE COAST LATE FRI...WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS AGAIN FORECAST FOR THE WATERS N OF 27N FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW SUN ACROSS THE AREA N OF 27N...ALLOWING NE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION S OF 27N INTO MON. LOOKING AHEAD...SOUTHERLY FLOW AGAIN INCREASES MON INTO TUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY TUE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE AT THAT TIME WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES N OF 27N. THE GFS CONSISTENTLY INDICATES THIS...BUT THE ECMWF IS WAFFLING AND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW FOR NOW.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY AND TONIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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