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AGXX40 KNHC 211855
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
255 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A thermal trough will develop each evening over the NW Yucatan Peninsula, move W-NW across the SW Gulf during the overnight hours and dissipate over the SW Gulf waters by late each morning. Expect the trough to be accompanied by a moderate to locally fresh NE-E-SE wind shift and brief seas to 4 ft. A surface high will meander over the N-Central waters through Thu night, then shift N and inland Louisiana on Fri with light to locally moderate anticyclonic flow and 1 to 3 ft seas through Mon.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

Marine interests should monitor the latest NHC bulletins concerning major hurricane Maria currently in the vicinity of Puerto Rico, with the hurricane force radii forecast to pass along the NE coast of Hispaniola tonight into Thu, with seas in excess of 35 ft. Strong or greater southerly flow expected across the Caribbean waters N of 15N E of 73W today and Thu. Expect wind/sea conditions across the NE passages to diminish to 20 kt or less, and seas to subside to less than 8 ft on Fri morning. Fresh N winds and seas to about 8 ft expected in the Windward Passage late Thu night into Fri morning. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trades will return by Sun evening.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Major Hurricane Maria will move NW off the NW coast of Puerto Rico this afternoon passing N of the Mona Passage this evening, then begin to move more NNW and later N in response to a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This track keeps the center of Maria E of the central and northern Bahamas. Given that forecast track and intensity accuracy decreases further into the future, marine interests throughout the region should continue monitoring the latest bulletins issued by the National Hurricane Center on Hurricane Maria.

Southerly swell associated with Maria in excess of 8 ft will mix with lingering northerly swell associated with Jose over the waters north of 28N and E of 78W through tonight, with the southerly swell ahead of Maria becoming dominant through early next week as Maria continues North of the area.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W... Tropical Storm Warning today into tonight.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... Tropical Storm Warning Thu night into Fri.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... Tropical Storm Warning Thu. Hurricane Warning Thu night into Fri.
.AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Tropical Storm Warning Thu. Hurricane Warning Thu night. Tropical Storm Warning Fri.
.AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... Tropical Storm Warning tonight. Hurricane Warning Thu into Fri.
.AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... Hurricane Warning today into Thu night. Tropical Storm Warning Fri.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.

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