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AGXX40 KNHC 291837
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
237 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS. USED TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS FOR WAVEHEIGHT GRIDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MAIN FEATURE IS A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SE GULF VICINITY FLORIDA KEYS NW TO THE SW LOUISIANA COAST. A WEAK HIGH CENTER OF 1018 MB IS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE NEAR 27N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS PUSHED S INTO THE N PORTION OF THE GULF ALONG A POSITION FROM 29N83W TO 29N88W. NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING ALONG AND WITHIN 90-120 NM N OF THIS TROUGH. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE W OF TALLAHASSEE. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM THROUGHOUT DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS NEAR THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY FROM 23-28N E OF 95W...WITH MODERATE SE-S WINDS EXPECTED AROUND THE S AND W-NW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE IN THE SW GULF...AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR 1-2 FT SEAS IN THE SE PORTION. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS FORECAST... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THERMAL TROUGH INDUCED 20-25 KT WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING THAT WILL MOVE WNW AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT THERMAL TROUGH EVENT WILL SET UP ON TUE NIGHT WITH E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 24N BETWEEN 90-95W LATE TUE NIGHT. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO A POSITION FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO NE TEXAS ON TUE WHERE IT WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS. USED TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS FOR WAVEHEIGHT GRIDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN TACT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN LET UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THU BEFORE WEAKENING MORE FRI THROUGH SAT. THE NOCTURNAL PULSES TO GALE WARNING FORCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH WED WITH THE GALE WINDS EXPECTED THEN ONLY WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA VERSES THE LARGER COVERAGE AREAS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALTIMETER PASSES FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED MAXIMUM SEAS OF UP TO 13-14 FT NEAR 13N76W... HOWEVER HIGHER SEAS OF UP TO 18 FT ARE JUST SW OF THESE MAXIMAS. NE-E SWELLS FROM THIS GALE EVENT ARE SEEPING SW INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN ZONE 29 WHERE RESULTANT SEAS OF 8-12 FT ARE PRESENT WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE SEAS NEAR 80W. NE-E TRADES OF 20-25 KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT.

THE TROPICAL WAVES HAVE BEEN PROPAGATING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AT A RATHER FAST PACE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...AND HAVE BEEN ACTING TO MODULATE THE ONGOING GALE EVENT TO SOME EXTENT. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPCOMING TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND WED NIGHT AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU INTO EARLY FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND THE REMAINDER OF THOSE WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. IT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND WED NIGHT...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND THU NIGHT...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT.

NE-E SWELLS AFFECTING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. USED TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS FOR WAVEHEIGHT GRIDS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N57W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SW TO THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE 1530 UTC ASCAT PASSE NICELY REVEALED A TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION FROM 31N78W TO NEAR 26N79W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS TSTMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS NOTED IN THE LIGHTNING DENSITY SATELLITE DATA FROM THE GOES-R PROVING GROUND SENSOR. AS POINTED OUT IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRI THEN THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY N TO A POSITION FROM 29N65W TO PORT CANAVERAL FL. SOUTHERLY 15-20 KT FLOW CURRENTLY N OF 29N WILL BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KT N OF 30N BETWEEN 71-76W ON TUE...THEN DIMINISH TO 10-20 KT ON TUE NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK TROUGHS MOVE OFF THE SE GA COAST...BUT IMMEDIATELY STALL AND WASH OUT WHILE TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SW 15-20 KT WINDS. MODERATE E-SE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND NIGHT TIME HOURS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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