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AGXX40 KNHC 010801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
401 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...ECMWF BEYOND 72 HRS

WEAK E TO W RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY N AND INLAND THIS MORNING AS MODEST RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS WRN ATLC IS PUSHING WEAK FRONT ACROSS ATLC TO ABOUT 29N ALONG 72W. FRESH SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PORTIONS WHILE STRONG SE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH HAVE SHIFTED NW FROM YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO S CENTRAL PORTIONS. COASTAL OBS FROM PROGRESSO SHOWED AND ESE COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAK LATE AFTERNOON WINDS ONLY REACHED AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE COAST. SEAS LIKELY 5-7 FT ACROSS LARGE SWATH OF S CENTRAL TO NW PORTIONS WHERE LONG SE FETCH HAS PREVAILED OF RECENT. FRESH ESE WINDS BLOWING THROUGH STRAITS AND LIKELY YIELDING SEAS TO 6 FT W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEPICTED IN GOES-R LOW CLOUD CHANNEL ACROSS NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF TEXAS AND SW LA W OF 91.5W AND EXTEND WELL OFFSHORE. IFR PROBS THERE SUGGEST MVFR VSBYS WHILE OBS GENERALLY REPORTING VSBYS 3-5 NM WITH A COUPLE STATIONS 1-3 NM OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL TEXAS.

GLOBAL MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON PATTERN THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH WEAK FRONT REACHING TEXAS COAST MON...N TO S TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS SW PORTIONS BUT OFFSHORE OF TYPICAL COASTAL TROUGH...AND ATLC RIDGING PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ELSEWHERE TO THE E. YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP EACH LATE AFTERNOON NEXT 2 DAYS AND PRODUCE SEABREEZE ALONG N COAST TO AROUND 25 KT...POSSIBLY 25-30 KT THIS EVENING AS SUGGESTED BY GFS. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH POSITION OF WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO BASIN...AND STRENGTH OF NLY FLOW BEHIND IT WED THROUGH THU. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ECMWF BEYOND TUE...WHICH FORECASTS NWLY FLOW ALONG MEXICAN COAST BEHIND FRONT REACHING 25-30 KT TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN NW TO N WINDS 20 KT ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF BASIN WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF WEAK WINTER FRONTS AND TOO WILL INDUCE NLY TEHUANTEPEC EVENT.




...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW INTO NE CARIB IS MAINTAINING A LOW TO MID LEVEL WEAKNESS THERE PRODUCING PERSISTENTLLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WHILE MID TO UPPER DYNAMICS ENHANCE ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MOIST ZONE FROM SE OF JAMAICA E AND NE ACROSS NE CARIB. ACTIVE CNVTN TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOIST ZONE BEGINS TO SEPARATE. THIS WEAKNESS ALSO PRODUCING BROAD TROUGHING N TO S ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB EXTENDING NWD INTO ATLC. FRESH ESE TRADES PREVAIL E OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE SE CARIB WHERE SEAS ARE 5-7 FT...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. SUFFICIENT ATLC RIDGING INTO NW PORTIONS FOR NOCTURNAL MAX ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS AT THIS TIME... WHERE GFS IS FORECAST 20-25 KT. BROAD TROUGH TO SHIFT WWD NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE IN PATTERN AND RESULTANT WINDS AND SEAS...WITH AMPLE DURATION OF WINDS ACROSS SE CARIB TO BUILD SEAS 6-8 FT BY THIS TIME SUN NIGHT. ATLC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NE MON THROUGH TUE FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING OF PRES GRADIENT...WHILE BROAD TROUGH SHIFTS WNW INTO WRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE AND WEAKENS...WITH SLIGHT DECREASE IN PEAK WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS AND GULF OF HONDURAS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. SELY FLOW WILL OPEN UP INTO SE GULF ACROSS W PORTIONS TUE NIGHT AND WED AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SE GULF OF MEXICO...REACHES THE STRAITS OF FL EARLY THU AND INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CARIB ON THU. HAVE FOLLOWED ECMWF WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEYOND WED.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...ECMWF BEYOND 72 HRS

W SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS WRN ATLC BEHIND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING S ACROSS NRN WATERS THIS MORNING. DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING FROM NE CARIB NE INTO CENTRAL ATLC MAINTAINING LLVL TROUGH THERE AND VERY ACTIVE WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. BROAD TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB EXTENDS N INTO ATLC ALONG ABOUT 71-72W AND ACTING TO BLOCK RIDGING INTO AREA WATERS S OF FRONT...LEAVING MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS TOP OF TROUGHS VEERING SELY INTO FLORIDA COAST ATTM. SEAS RUNNING 3-5 FT ATTM MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF BAHAMAS AND 2-3 FT JUST S OF FRONT.

RIDGE TO BUILD SSW SLIGHTLY INTO AREA TODAY AND NUDGE FRONT S TO ABOUT 28N BY EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. THIS TO TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT SLIGHTLY N OF WWD SHIFTING TROUGH ACROSS SE HALF OF BAHAMAS...AND INCREASE TRADES THERE TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH TO SHIFT NE INTO CENTRAL ATLC MON THROUGH TUE AND LEAVE RIDGE EXTENDING SW INTO AREA AND PRODUCE SE TO S WIND FLOW ACROSS AREA DURING THAT TIME...AHEAD OF FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF EASTERN SEABOARD BY WED. SLY FLOW TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT NRN WATERS LATE WED AHEAD OF FRONT...AS IT MOVES INTO NW PORTIONS OF AREA...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT N OF 24N E OF FRONT THU...PER ECMWF...AS FRONT SHIFTS SE INTO STRAITS AND NW BAHAMAS...AND MODEST LOW DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT ACROSS NW WATERS. NW WINDS 20-25 KT FORECAST BY ECMWF BRIEFLY BEHIND FRONT THU ACROSS FL NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND NW BAHAMAS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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