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AGXX40 KNHC 040718
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
318 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS FOR WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH MODERATE E TO SE TRADES PRIMARILY S OF 26N AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE NW GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING...MOVING W EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THEN DISSIPATING IN THE SW GULF EACH DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE AMPLIFIED AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVES EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON MORNING AND THU MORNING. A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT AS WELL AS TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS FOR WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A PERSISTENT RIDGE N OF THE AREA ALONG 30N AND LOW PRES ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED... WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED THROUGH MON MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY MON AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...SHIFTING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER N AWAY FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMPROMISED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WEAKENS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AFTERNOON THROUGH WED.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC ALONG 43W WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC SUN AND REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUE. A THIRD WAVE ALONG 28W WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON AND CROSS 70W BY WED NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. AS A RESULT THE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP TROPICS MAY NOT HAVE THE USUAL AMOUNT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS THEY TRAVERSE THE REGION.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS AND 12 EC WAVE FOR WAVES. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERSISTENT RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 30N WILL SUPPORT LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALLOW MODERATE E TO SE TRADES S OF 27N AND GENTLE SE TO S WINDS N OF 27N TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NE WATERS TUE NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS HERE...WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING THE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FARTHER N NEAR BERMUDA TUE THAN THE GFS. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE VERY MINOR. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE DIFFERENCES AND FOR THE PREFERENCE TO ADD THE EC WAVE TO THE FORECAST AS IT GENERALLY DOES BEST WITH SWELL IN THE OPEN ATLC. BOTH MODELS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...WITH THE AREA OF WIND SHRINKING CLOSER TO THE COAST MON THROUGH WED AS THE RIDGE TO THE N WEAKENS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
.AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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