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AGXX40 KNHC 191815
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH TUE...THEN GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA W-SW TO 27N90W THEN W TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR MATAGORDA BAY. LATEST SCATTEROMETER WINDS AND ALTIMETER SEA HEIGHTS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE GULF WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE 3-6 FT RANGE ACROSS THE SW GULF...2-4 FT TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND 1-3 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS TUE AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST WED. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE FAR SW GULF WATERS BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE LOW TRACKING ENE TOWARD THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY EARLY FRI PER GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE UKMET SLIGHTLY FASTER CARRYING THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA BY THU. THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL TRACK OF THE LOW APPEARS TO AGREE HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED WINDS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE MOST ROBUST AND MOST AGGRESSIVE...WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW A BROADER AND WEAKER LOW...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY WEAKER WIND FIELD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO HEAVILY WEIGHT THE GFS THROUGH TUE...WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF THEREAFTER INTO THE MID RANGE. FOR THE LONGER RANGE...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE...GFS INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC AND BECOMING MORE BAROCLINIC LOOKING...AND THE ECMWF NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND MORE BAROTROPIC LOOKING...KEEPING PREVIOUS THINKING WITH LOW TRACKING INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS BY WAY OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS FRI INTO SAT...THEN NE OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUN.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. ONE EXCEPTION...AND LIKELY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED IS A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF 13N79W. HIGHER WINDS WERE NOTED ON AN EARLY MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 19/1430 UTC NEAR THE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE...LIKELY DUE TO MIXED NE AND SE SWELL.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC TONIGHT INTO MON THAT WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WATERS AND DRIFT E-NE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION THU LATE INTO FRI. BY TUE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW WHICH WILL SHIFT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TUE INTO WED AS THE LOW PASSES NE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A FRONTAL COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N74W SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RECENT ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 19/1424 UTC INDICATING 15-20 KT SW WINDS N OF 30N WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT...AND 15-20 KT...PUSHING 25 KT ALONG 31N...NW TO N WINDS NORTH OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. TO THE SE OF THE BOUNDARY...SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS IN SUBSIDING SWELL FROM GONZALO OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MON EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE EAST COAST OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MON MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS CENTERING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS WED...MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS THU.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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