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000
AGXX40 KNHC 151804
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
204 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WIND THROUGH THU THEN 20 PERCENT ECMWF ADDED TO BLEND THROUGH SAT. EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES THROUGH WED THEN MWW3 USED THU THROUGH SAT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU AND LOW CONFIDENCE FRI AND SAT.

THE OBSERVATION STATION AT SACRIFICE ISLAND MEXICO NEAR 19N96W REPORTED 46 KT SUSTAINED N WINDS WITH 55 KT GUSTS AT 1600 UTC. A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT IN THE SW GULF AND STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNSET. THE 1200 UTC GFS WAS WELL INITIALIZED WITH THE STORM FORCE WINDS AND WAS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE 0000 UTC ECMWF. THE GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WINDS SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO TAKE THE FRONT THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY WED BEFORE LIFTING IT N AS A WARM FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF BEGINNING WED NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LESSENS BY FRI AS THE PERSISTENT ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE NE GULF AND CARRY IT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA FRI NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND ITS WAVE MODEL ALLOW WINDS TO REACH 30 KT AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FT FRI NIGHT WITH THE 1011 MB LOW IT DEVELOPS IN THE NE GULF. THE OTHER MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH AMPLIFYING SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IN THIS AREA...BUT THEY DIFFER WILDLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE UKMET HAS GENERALLY BEEN STRONG LIKE THE ECMWF WHILE THE CMC IS MUCH WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE LIKE THE GFS AND THE NAVGEM IS MORE OF A COMPROMISE LEANING SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARD THE STRONGER EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH ANY ONE FORECAST HERE. THE GEFS GENERALLY SIDES WITH THE GFS...WITH SOME NOD TOWARD MORE DEVELOPMENT OF A SLOWER MOVING SURFACE WAVE...WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE SLOW SIDE BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE OPERATIONAL 0000 UTC ECMWF. CONSIDERING THE GFS IS ON THE WEAK END OF THE GUIDANCE RANGE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN GOING WHOLE HOG WITH ITS WEAK SOLUTION. 20 PERCENT ECMWF WAS THROWN INTO THE MIX THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT TO HELP ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR WAVES...THE NWPS CONTINUES TO BE TOO FAST TO SUBSIDE THE SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT...EVEN COMPARED TO THE MWW3. THE SWELL WAS ADJUSTED TO COME DOWN SLOWER LIKE THE EC WAVE THROUGH WED. THE MM3 WAS USED THEREAFTER AS IT USES THE WEAKER GFS WIND FIELD WHICH IS GENERALLY FAVORED THU ONWARD.




.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WIND. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC TONIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CARRY THE COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO VERY CLOSE TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEFORE SHIFTING IT BACK N BEGINNING WED NIGHT. THE LACK OF RIDGING TO THE N WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW A STRONG BREEZE IN THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL SPOT WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. A WEAK TRADE WIND REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. DIFFERENCES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SW N ATLC WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH FLORIDA THEN IMPACT THE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT ONWARD AS IT DEVELOPS LOW PRES TO THE N...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE GFS ALLOWS WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THU NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS N OF THE AREA. THE GFS FORECAST IS GENERALLY PREFERRED WITH THE PATTERN TO THE N...SO THE FORECAST HERE WILL RELY ON IT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION NWPS SOLUTION LOOKS GOOD HERE.




...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THU THEN 20 PERCENT ECMWF ADDED TO BLEND. MWW3 BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THU THEN EC WAVE ADDED TO BLEND. LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE MODELS AGREE ON CARRYING THE FRONT FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY WED MORNING. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN IT WAS BETTER INITIALIZED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LESSENS BY THU AS THE ECMWF CARRIES THE FRONT FARTHER E INTO THE ATLC AND AWAY FROM THE COAST OVER N WATERS THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND DIMINISHES FURTHER AS THE PERSISTENT ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARRIES IT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA FRI NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND ITS WAVE MODEL ALLOW WINDS TO REACH 40 KT AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 18 FT SAT WITH THE 1004 MB LOW IT DEVELOPS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THE OTHER MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH AMPLIFYING SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IN THIS AREA...BUT THEY DIFFER WILDLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE UKMET HAS GENERALLY BEEN STRONG LIKE THE ECMWF WHILE THE CMC IS MUCH WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE LIKE THE GFS AND THE NAVGEM IS MORE OF A COMPROMISE LEANING SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARD THE STRONGER EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH ANY ONE FORECAST HERE. THE GEFS GENERALLY SIDES WITH THE GFS...WITH SOME NOD TOWARD MORE DEVELOPMENT OF A SLOWER MOVING SURFACE WAVE...WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE SLOW SIDE BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE OPERATIONAL 0000 UTC ECMWF. CONSIDERING THE GFS IS ON THE WEAK END OF THE GUIDANCE RANGE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN GOING WHOLE HOG WITH ITS WEAK SOLUTION. 20 PERCENT ECMWF WAS THROWN INTO THE MIX THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT TO HELP ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY. THE MWW3 WAS RELIED ON FOR THE WAVE FORECAST...WITH 20 PERCENT EC WAVE THROWN INTO THE MIX THU NIGHT ONWARD.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... STORM WARNING TODAY. GALE WARNING TONIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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