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AGXX40 KNHC 240820
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
320 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

DEEP LAYERED VORT HAS LIFTED NE AND OUT OF REGION TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ALSO SHIFTING NE AND INTO SW N ATLC. LIGHT TO MODERATE S TO SW FLOW GENERALLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ATTM WITH PEAK SEAS 7-8 FT OFFSHORE OF THE FL PANHANDLE IN LINGERING SSW WIND SWELL FROM TODAY.

NEXT FRONT NOW APPROACHING TEXAS COAST AND WILL SHIFT RATHER QUICKLY SE AND REACH FROM MSY TO JUST S OF BRO BY 12Z. MODELS SUGGESTING SCT CONVECTION ACROSS NE PORTIONS AHEAD OF FRONT IN LOW-MID LVL SW FLOW. EXPECT NLY WINDS AROUND 25 KT DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT THIS MORNING SPILLING S DOWN MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS... REACHING VERACRUZ BY 00Z MON BEFORE FRONT STALLS TEMPORARILY OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON FROM NRN FL TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHILE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS. MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM RECENT RUNS AND STILL SHOW MODEST DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT...WITH GFS SHOWING MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGHING THAN EURO MODELS ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE AHEAD OF FRONT TUE...WHICH HOLDS FRONT FARTHER W AND ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER TO BLAST IN GALES TUE AFTERNOON-EVENING. GEFS IS SOMEWHAT MORE IN LINE WITH EURO MODELS DURING THIS TIME AND HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. GALES EXPECTED ACROSS MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS S OF 24N BY 18Z TUE THEN SPREADING IN BROAD LINE ABOUT 120 NM NW OF NEARLY ENTIRE LENGTH OF FRONT THROUGH WED NIGHT AS FRONT CONTINUES SE ACROSS BASIN...REACHING FROM NEAR NAPLES THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL BY 12Z WED. SEAS 12-16 FT FORECAST IN THIS ZONE OF STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND FRONT THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE WIND AND SEAS GRADUALLY ABATE ACROSS ALL BUT SE PORTIONS INTO FRI. ISOLATED AREAS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE WITHIN GALE ZONE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...WITH GALES ENDING BY 18Z WED.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WINDS HAVE SPREAD WWD TO 76W THIS MORNING PER RECENT ASCAT PASSES...WITH NOCTURNAL MAX TO NEAR 30 KT EXPECTED ATTM OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND 25-30 KT JUST S OF HISPANIOLA...WHERE SEAS 10-11 FT ARE LIKELY OCCURRING. ATLC HIGH WILL SHIFT NE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAINTAIN RIDGE TO SW AND TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO MAINTAIN STRONG PRES GRADIENT N OF LOW-MID LVL TROUGH MOVING WWD ACROSS CENTRAL SUB TROPICAL ATLC...BACKING WINDS AND REBUILDING SEAS 9-11 FT AND INTO NE CARIB TODAY THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT.

TRADES HAVE OPENED UP INTO GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NW PORTIONS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT STRONG FRONT BUT WILL DIMINISH SOME TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL BY 12Z WED. EURO MODELS STILL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR NLY GALES BEHIND FRONT SPREADING FROM YUCATAN S INTO GULF OF HONDURAS WED AND WED NIGHT WHILE GFS HOLD WINDS AT 30 KT. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO GFS ATTM AND AM NOT ADVERTISING GALES...FOR NOW. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO N CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS BY THU NIGHT WHERE IT WILL GENERALLY STALL AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. STRONG NELY FLOW 20-25 KT BEHIND FRONT FORECAST TO DOMINATE NW PORTIONS THU THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH SEAS PEAKING AT 8-11 FT FRI BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING INTO SAT. NEW HIGHER RES PARALLEL RUN OF GFS SHOWING SMALL AREAS TO 30 KT IN GULF OF HONDURAS LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE PEAK WINDS TO 28 KT ATTM THERE IN GRIDS AND WILL WAIT ON FUTURE RUNS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING BEGINNING TO LIFT N AS WARM FRONT W OF 65W AS SE TO S NOW PREVAIL ACROSS ALL BUT SE PORTIONS. STRONG FLOW TO 30 KT OCCURRING PAST 24 HOURS NE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE GENERATED SE SWELL ACROSS MUCH OF AREA W OF 70W...WITH SEAS 8-10 FT ATTM N AND NE OF BAHAMAS. ATLC RIDGE FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL HOLD THROUGH EARLY WED AND STRENGTHEN NE TO E TRADES AND TRADE WIND SWELL MOVING INTO SE PORTIONS THROUGH LATE WED. MEANWHILE...NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND TUE AND MOVE INTO FAR NW WATERS TUE AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL STALL THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE SECONDARY PUSH WED MORNING MOVES FRONT THROUGH MOST OF FLORIDA... REACHING FROM NEAR 31N74.5W TO 22.5N80W BY 00Z THU. ATLC RIDGE TO HELP CREATE STRONG SLY FLOW N OF 28N AHEAD OF FRONT WED...WHILE NW WINDS 25-30 KT EXPECTED BRIEFLY WED NW PORTIONS AS FRONT SHIFTS SE...WITH PRES GRADIENT DECREASING THROUGH THU. FRONT TO CONTINUE SE AND REACH FROM NEAR 25N65W TO E CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT BEFORE STALLING AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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