Home


000
AGXX40 KNHC 241750
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE 1013 MB WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS MOVED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LONGER EXPECTED. A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF REGION WITH A 1018-1019 MB HIGH MEANDERING OVER THE NE AND N-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WHERE THE HIGH PRES CENTER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AND GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ELSEWHERE... EXCEPT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS JUST TO THE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH. SEAS ARE MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS IN THE NE GULF...AND 2-4 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BUOY 42055 THAT IS CURRENTLY REPORTING 5 FT LIKELY DUE TO A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION THERE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE YUCATAN BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT. A SURGE OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PAIR OF LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVES...ONE ALONG 57W AND ANOTHER ALONG 70W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND ENHANCING THE TRADE WIND FLOW. A RECENT ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE ALONG 70W WITH ISOLATED WIND BARBS OF 25 KT. OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE ATLC HIGH PRES TO THE NE OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMAIAN LOW. AS A RESULT...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE BLOWING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. WINDS WILL PEAK AT AROUND 30 KT TO THE NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN MIXED N-NE AND E SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT BY EARLY SUNDAY...THEN TO 3-5 FT BY EARLY MON. REINFORCING SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS BACK TO 5-7 FT BY LATE TUE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS IT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH MAY MANAGE TO SNEAK INTO THE NW PORTION OFF OF THE SE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COAST BY EARLY SUN...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH MON NIGHT. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER THIS PATTERN...EXCEPT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3-5 FT...EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY 4-6 FT S OF 22N E OF 65W...AND 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Home