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AGXX40 KNHC 251737
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
137 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. FRESH WINDS OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE SE GULF...AND 2-4 FT OVER THE NE GULF. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH FRI. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING OVER THE YUCATAN AND DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE SW GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND DISSIPATE OVER THE SW GULF EACH MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP FOR LOCALIZED REGION OF STRONGER WINDS EACH NIGHT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 10-12 FT RANGE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 8-10 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 6-8 FT OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 4-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 5-7 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WINDS ACROSS CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH DRIFTS N OF THE AREA AND WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A BROAD TROUGH IS STARTING TO DEVELOP E OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA AND MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE OVER THE NW WATERS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS WITH 1-3 FT SEAS W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA WITH TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN WATERS MIDWEEK. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA MIDWEEK. THE TROUGH WILL THEN SLOWLY DAMPEN OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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