Home


000
AGXX40 KNHC 191933
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
233 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE INFLUENCES THE EASTERN GULF WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODERATE S-SE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. A 1013 MB LOW PRES IS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 28N98W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 29N90W TO 28N86W. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS NE. THE LOW WILL REACH THE COAST OF SE LOUISIANA FRI NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ORLEANS TO NEAR TAMPICO SAT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SAT WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO ENTER THE NW GULF TUE MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO 25-30 KT AS IT REACHES FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. THEN...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY TUE NIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE N-NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TUE EVENING AND NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE GFES PROBABILITIES REACH A RANGE OF 10-20 PERCENT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RECENT ASCAT PASSES THIS MORNING PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...JUST SOUTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N87W TO 17N86W TO 14N83W. THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE NORTH ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W-78W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PULSE THROUGH LATE SAT AND INCREASE SUN THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 7 TO 11 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT. SEAS MAY REACH 8 FT WITH NE SWELL ACROSS ZONE AMZ037 ON MON INTO TUE BEFORE SUBSIDING TUE NIGHT.


...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO 26N71W AND WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA BY SAT. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ON EITHER SIDE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT BASED ON BUOYS...A FEW SHIP OBS...AND A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. WINDS INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N...GENERALLY BETWEEN 60W-75W. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONT...BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. ONCE THIS LOW DISSIPATES BY SUN NIGHT LATE...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC IN ADVANCE OF A NEW LOW PRES AREA MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MON WHICH WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE WESTERN WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN DRAG A WEAK FRONT NORTH OF 30N TUE. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY WED.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Home