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AGXX40 KNHC 291849
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
149 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN...THEN LOW-MEDIUM.

1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED IN EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA CONTROLS THE WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TUXPAN. THE LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE SE GULF. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF FRESH N-NE WINDS BEHIND IT BY FRI MORNING. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG 26N-27N BY FRI AFTERNOON THEN WILL LIFT BACK TO THE N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT BY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS SUN NIGHT INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE GULF BY EARLY MON WITH SEAS 4-6 FT BUILDING QUICKLY TO 6-9 FT. AS THIS FORECAST PERIOD NEARS...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS NEXT FRONT WITH THE GFS SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS AND A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONT. THE ECMWF HOWEVER STALLS THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF BY TUE MORNING WITH WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG IT. GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT YET HEADLINE GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING INTO A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA SW TO THE COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BORDER NEAR 10N83W. OVERNIGHT AND RECENT MORNING SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS E OF NICARAGUA WHERE AN ALTIMETER PASS CAPTURED SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE. THE SCATTEROMETER PASSES ALSO SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS...EVEN A FEW BARBS OF NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE VICINITY OF 12N75W...OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE 8-11 FT... AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND LEE OF CUBA WITH SEAS TO 9 FT E AND S OF JAMAICA.

THE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD BECOMING DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA DIMINISHING BY FRI MORNING. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL EXPAND OUTWARD IN COVERAGE AND WILL PEAK NEAR GALE FORCE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 14 FT BY SUN MORNING AND AGAIN MON MORNING. MEANWHILE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH SEAS OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 8 FT NEAR EASTERN JAMAICA.

OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 5-8 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN NIGHT. BY SUN NIGHT...RIDGING CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC...STRENGTHENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND RESULT IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-9 FT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N61W TO THE N CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST...CONTINUES TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N60W TO 23N70W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N75W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...LIKELY INFLUENCED BY THE ACTIVE CONVECTION...N OF 27N WITH FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS N OF 28N W OF THE COLD FRONT TO 70W. ALTIMETER PASSES AND SHIP DATA SAMPLED 7-10 FT SEAS N OF 25N W OF THE FRONTS TO THE BAHAMAS.

AS THE FRONT MERGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PUSH E OF 65W WITH THE TAIL END STALLING ALONG 61W IN ZONE AMZ127. HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N82W WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE HIGH WILL REACH 31N75W BY LATE FRI.

THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION FRI LATE MORNING AND EXTEND FROM 31N76W TO 29N81W FRI AFTERNOON. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE SW WINDS WILL OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG TO THE S-SE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND EXTENDING FROM 31N63W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA BY SAT MORNING THEN WILL STALL FROM 25N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SAT NIGHT WHILE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A SHEAR LINE.

HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD SE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC AND ANCHOR NEAR 31N74W BY SUN MORNING. THAT HIGH WILL RACE E-SE REACHING 30N55W BY MON MORNING. A POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PORTION SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. THAT NEXT FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM 31N77W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL BY MON AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND IT. THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION HAS COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT WITH POSITIONING OF FRONT BY MON...HOWEVER REMAINS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND A TAD WEAKER THAN THE GFS ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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