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AGXX40 KNHC 280713
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
213 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 25N95W CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE WESTERN GULF AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBS SHOW GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 90W. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT W OF 90W. E OF 90W...NW-N WINDS ARE 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE MAINLY DUE TO A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WHICH IS CLIPPING THE E GULF COASTAL WATERS.

THE HIGH IN THE W CENTRAL GULF WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONGER HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GULF BY THU MORNING WITH 3-5 FT SEAS IN THE SE GULF AND 1-3 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE THU NIGHT AND WILL STALL ALONG 27N FRI BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT BY LATE SAT NIGHT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM 15N80W TO 10.5N83.5W...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS W OF THE SHEAR LINE WHERE SEAS ARE 4-7 FT. THIS SHEAR LINE WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT (WED NIGHT)...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY THU AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT BY 24 HOURS WITH THE PERSISTENT N-NE FETCH.

SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS HUGGING THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH UP TO 30 KT TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BRIEF LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS JUST NW OF COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 12-14 FT BY LATE SAT NIGHT NEAR THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS.

FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA BY LATE TONIGHT... DIMINISHING BY FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-9 FT JUST DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY THU MORNING.

OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 5-8 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS THU NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT THROUGH SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE EASTERN FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO 25N65W TO 20N73W. SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO BE MAINTAINED WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE WESTERN FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO 27N80W. RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B PASSES INDICATED LINGERING GALE FORCE 30-40 KT WINDS N OF 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W WHICH WAS HIGHER THAN ANY OF THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL OR REGIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET WHICH DID HAVE ONLY ONE 35 KT WIND BARB FORECAST AT 00 UTC. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS THE GALE WARNING WAS REISSUED FOR OFFSHORE ZONES AMZ113 AND AMZ113 THROUGH THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT BY LATER THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. LARGE SEAS UP TO 18 FT ARE NEAR 31N67W. THE WESTERN FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N66W TO 27N75W AROUND SUNRISE...FROM 31N63W TO 27N66W TO 24N75W BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN FROM 31N55W TO 22N60W BY LATE THU NIGHT.

CONDITIONS W OF 65W WILL GREATLY IMPROVE BY THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES SLIDES TO THE SE FROM THE CAROLINAS TO 30N76W. SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE BASIN BY THIS TIME WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PORTION LATE THU NIGHT... REACHING FROM 31N75W TO NEAR FORT PIERCE FLORIDA FRI AFTERNOON... FROM 31N63W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SAT MORNING...THEN WILL BECOME A REMNANT SHEAR LINE AS IT CONTINUES TO SINK TO THE S STRETCHING FROM 24N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY SUN MORNING AS NEW HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE CAROLINAS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL ARRIVE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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