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AGXX40 KNHC 241809
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
209 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF LATEST GLOBAL WAVE MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RIDGING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. SEAS N OF 25N WILL RANGE MAINLY FROM 1 TO 3 FT...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT S OF 25N. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING AND MOVE WEST OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SUPPORTING LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY THEN NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY. THIS UPPER LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN GULF ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF LATEST GLOBAL WAVE MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND PASSING TROPICAL WAVES. MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN ZONES OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY MONDAY. THIS WAVE WILL CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF LATEST GLOBAL WAVE MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL DRIFT WEST TO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. A SURFACE HIGH JUST EAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND MERGE WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC EARLY THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ANCHORED ALONG 28N FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CURRENT RIDGE PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FT N OF 25N. SOUTH OF 25N...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND 4 TO 5 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ARE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA WHICH ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG EACH EVENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND LIGHT WINDS BETWEEN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK...WINDS TO THE N OF 25N W OF 75W WILL BECOME MODERATE E TO SE...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE N OF 25N E OF 75W NEAR THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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