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AGXX40 KNHC 281742
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
142 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF WATERS. SMOKE FROM AGRICULTURAL BURNING OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SW GULF WATERS. WINDS IN THE GULF WATERS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND THIS WILL CLEAR THE SMOKE OUT BY WEDNESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT ENE OVER THE NEXT DAY AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA BY WED AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEPT ACROSS THE REMAINING GULF WATERS AND SE OF THE AREA BY LATE WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS N OF VENEZUELA AND FAR EASTERN COLOMBIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN THE REGION OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 4-5 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SMOKE FROM AGRICULTURAL FIRES IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN N OF HONDURAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO E HONDURAS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE IT STALLS AND DISSIPATES. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP CLEAR THE SMOKE FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS BY THU. TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH RIDGE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE SW N ATLC ZONES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE STRONGEST WINDS N OF VENEZUELA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR 25N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE FAR NE WATERS...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE OVER THE FAR NE WATERS...2-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY FEEDBACK ISSUES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO LINE IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE WED AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS WED NIGHT...THEN THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK N OF THE AREA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS AND WEAKEN FROM NEAR 27N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SAT NIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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