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AGXX40 KNHC 240740
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LITTLE ASSOCIATED WEATHER. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SHIFTS WEST FROM THE SW N ATLANTIC OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WEST GULF. FRESH TO STRONG RETURN FLOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY FRI.

THE DIURNAL THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THEN MOVE OVER THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS IS EXPECTED JUST N AND W OF THE YUCATAN COAST TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN WAVERING FROM RUN TO RUN REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL TROUGHS AND HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD ON THE STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL TROUGH DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA IS CAUSING A CORRESPONDING WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE WIND MAXIMUM OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BUT REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EARLY THU. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO MODERATE THU NIGHT AS SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN WAS RELOCATED EARLIER ON MON TO COINCIDE WITH A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE WILL EXIT THE CARIBBEAN EARLY ON THU. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 45W/47W WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY WED...REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE THU.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY INDICATING A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT E TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EARLY WED. THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH SAT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT 00Z IT STRETCHED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 31N71W TO 27N77W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PERSIST SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NEAR 65W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS S OF THE FRONT. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N42W WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N72W.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WHAT REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME A FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 31N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS WED NIGHT...WHERE IT WILL BRIEFLY STALL BEFORE SHIFTING WESTWARD THU AND FRI. GFS IS AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE TROUGH FRI WHILE THE LATEST EUROPEAN RUN SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING LATER...ON EARLY SAT AND MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL THE MODELS ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT. IN ANY CASE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE NE TO E WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA WED THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER PAW. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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