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AGXX40 KNHC 051931
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
231 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS BLENDED 12Z MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE GULF AND AS OF 18Z IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT AND RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT E OF 89W S OF 28N...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 25-30 KT WINDS IN AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS AND A COUPLE OF SHIPS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-11 FT WITH THE HIGHEST IN AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE IN NE SWELL EXCEPT FOR 4-6 FT SEAS NE OF A LINE FROM THE NE GULF TO 27N92W TO TAMPICO. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF BECOMING NE AND DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL BECOME NE-E 10-15 KT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN GULF WHERE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE SE. SEAS WILL BE SLOW IN SUBSIDING IN THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN N SWELL LINGERING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NEARBY WATERS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SE GULF SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS E OF FLORIDA NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATLC LOW WILL IMPACT THE WIND FLOW REGIME OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF INTO SUN AFTERNOON FRESH NW-N WINDS EXPECTED. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THESE WINDS DIMINISHING SUN NIGHT AS THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF SHIFTS S AND WEAKENS FURTHER. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF MON AND MON NIGHT FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 11 FT. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT E OF THE GULF BY LATE MON NIGHT OR EARLY ON TUE. THE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS WILL SPREAD SE OVER THE ENTIRE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF BY EARLY TUE WITH THE 8-11 FT SEAS SPREADING SSE. BY LATE TUE NIGHT...THE NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT. THE SEAS WILL BE SLOW IN SUBSIDING IN THE EASTERN GULF AS MWW3 HANGS ON TO SEAS OF 8-9 FT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO 5-7 FT TUE NIGHT AND TO 4-6 FT WED.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS BLENDED 12Z MWW3 AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE COLD FRONT THAT RECENTLY MOVED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXTENDS FROM W CENTRAL CUBA SW TO 19N85W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS OF 18Z. HIGH PRES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BUILDING SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE W OF THE FRONT. BUOY 42056 AT 20N85W IS REPORTING NE WINDS OF 25 KT WITH AT TIMES GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE IN AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS INDICATED BY LATEST ALTIMETER PASSES IN THAT AREA. THE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS NOTED DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10-15 KT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM E CENTRAL CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY EARLY ON SAT AND BEGIN TO BECOME DIFFUSE. THE FRONTAL REMNANT WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO THE N ON SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SE FROM GULF OF MEXICO WILL PUSH THE FRONT BACK TO THE S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT...AND IT STILL APPEARS THAT IT WILL REACH FROM NEAR EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY LATE SUN...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH FROM NEAR HAITI TO SE NICARAGUA BY LATE TUE. FRESH TO AT TIMES STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH LATE SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO SW TO NEAR 15N68W. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY NW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE EARLY ON SAT

THE WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS REACHING TO 30 KT WITHIN 60-75 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS BLENDED 12Z MWW3 WITH A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OFF THE SE U.S AND NE FLORIDA COASTS LAST NIGHT IS ANALYZED AT 18Z ALONG A POSITION FROM NEAR 31N74W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND TO CENTRAL CUBA. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING EASTWARD BEHIND IT. FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE WITHIN 20-60 NM OF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS W OF THE FRONT ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 8-11 FT. A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS 19N65W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NNW TO NEAR 25N67W. A 1021 MB HIGH CENTER IS AT 28N73W WITH A RIDGE SW TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO STALL FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO E CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY ON SAT. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE W ON SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS SAT EVENING INTO LATE SAT NIGHT WITH STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN WATERS E OF ABOUT 78W INTO SUN NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFICATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS IT LIFTS N OF THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N72W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY EARLY MON NIGHT...AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 25N65W TO 24N68W AND STATIOANRY TO HAITI BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF SE U.S COAST MON NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N74W TO WESTERN CUBA BY EARLY TUE...FROM NEAR 31N68W TO SE BAHAMAS AND TO NEAR WINDWARD PASSAGE BY TUE...AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 28N65W TO HISPANIOLA WED. STRONG TO POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE INDICATED BY THE MODELS TO FOLLOW THIS FRONT OVER THE WATERS N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH VERY LARGE SEAS IN NW SWELL.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING SUN. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING SUN. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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