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AGXX40 KNHC 031703
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
103 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1009 MB LOW PRES WAS ANALYZED OVER N FL NEAR 30N83W AT 1200 UTC. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WANED SINCE THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN GULF PRIMARILY FROM 26N TO 29N. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH TUE...WITH THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUING NE AND THE MAIN VORTICITY CENTER WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS S-SW. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE 0926 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE NE GULF...WITH THE PRES GRADIENT CHANGING RELATIVELY LITTLE SINCE THAT TIME. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY.

A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE NW DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING LATE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE BEHIND THE TROUGH IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.




...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE 0930 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING. WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL AGAIN PULSE TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE N. TONIGHT...THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE SHIFTING NE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI AS THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE N WEAKENS AND AN INVERTED TROUGH BUILDS N OF THE NE CARIBBEAN.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ASIDE FROM AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS TROPICAL WAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 72W IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND EXIT THE AREA THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED...REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THU NIGHT AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY FRI NIGHT.




...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS IN THE NW WATERS BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 29N65W TO PALM BEACH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER N FL ARE PICKING UP TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE TODAY AS THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NE INTO GA AND OFF THE COAST NEAR SAVANNAH. AFTER THAT SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA TUE...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO W WATERS. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 28N74W WED THROUGH THU BEFORE MERGING BACK INTO THE WEAKENED RIDGE AXIS FRI. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE THE WEAKENED RIDGE DIMINISHES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...GALE WARNING TODAY INTO WED.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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