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AGXX40 KNHC 300716
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
316 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE NEAR 23.9N 85.5W 1003 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 30 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS AN EXPOSED CENTER BUT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 24.2N 86.4W LATER THIS MORNING. THE TS WILL BE LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 87.1W TONIGHT...NEAR 25.8N 87.0W WED MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO TURN N AND NE AND INTENSIFY TO 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT AS IT REACHES NEAR 27.2N 85.8W WED NIGHT. NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL SPREAD FROM THE SE GULF N AND NW INTO THE E GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NE AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THU NIGHT. A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL STORM.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 24N. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF THE PRESENT AREA OF STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE... EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE NW PORTION.

A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING... MOVE NORTHWARD IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF THEN ACCELERATE NE ACROSS NORTHERN FL LATE THU INTO FRI. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER THE NW WATERS EAST OF NE FLORIDA THU THROUGH FRI WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THOSE WATERS WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO 10-11 FT ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE EXPECTED T.S. IS EXPECTED FORECAST TO TRACK NE ACROSS ZONE AMZ111 LATE THU THROUGH FRI. STRONG SW WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS ZONES AMZ113 AND AMZ115 FRI AND SAT NIGHT WHILE SHRINKING IN COVERAGE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN ZONE AMZ111 FRI NIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO WED NIGHT.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO WED.
.GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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