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AGXX40 KNHC 290752
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
352 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

ATLC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WEAKLY WSW ACROSS WRN ATLC AND ACROSS NE GULF TO NEAR 90W THIS MORNING...WITH 1016 MB HIGH ALONG W COAST OF FL N OF TAMPA BAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING NEARLY N TO S ACROSS MEXICO AIDING IN MAINTAINING MODERATE SELY WINDS NW QUARTER OF BASIN. SEAS ARE 4-5 FT OVER MUCH OF W HALF OF BASIN ATTM...WITH 42002 RECENTLY REACHING 6 FT. RECENT OBS AND GOES-R FOG-LOW STRATUS IMAGERY INDICATING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PREVAILING ACROSS MUCH OF NW GULF SHELF WATERS...WITH VSBYS 3-5 NM...WITH LOWEST VSBYS SUGGESTED ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS W AND SW U.S. AND INTO MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL NOT ALTER SURFACE SCENARIO MUCH ACROSS THE GULF. RIDGE TO REMAIN INTACT TO DAY AND WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW U.S. WINDS FORECAST TO FRESHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS WRN TWO-THIRDS OF GULF BASIN...WITH SE WINDS 20-25 KT DEVELOPING NW PORTIONS...AND THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS YUCATAN TO YIELD WINDS 20-30 KT OFF N END OF PENINSULA. WAVE MODELS SEEM TO BE DOING REASONABLE JOB WITH WAVE GROWTH ACROSS THESE AREA...POSSIBLY A FOOT LOW IN PEAK WIND AREAS...WITH SEAS 8-9 FT EXPECTED NW PORTIONS AND BRIEFLY 6-8 FT OFF NW YUCATAN. WW3 APPEARS TO BE HIGHER AND PREFERRED TO ECWAVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SFC LOW TO TRACK NE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO CENTRAL MS VALLEY SUN AND WILL DRAG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO ERN TEXAS SAT WHERE IT WILL BRIEFLY STALL...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY SE TO COASTAL PLAINS OF TX AND LA THROUGH MON AS LOW MOVES NE INTO MID ATLC STATES. INVERTED TROUGH PERSISTING W AND SW PORTIONS WILL MAINTAIN SELY RETURN FLOW INTO SUN SPREADING INTO ERN PORTIONS...THEN BACK E TO SE BY MON AS FRONT LAYS DOWN ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS OF N GULF STATES. FRONT MAY FINALLY SINK INTO N COASTAL WATERS TUE MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MON.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

A WEAK ATLC RIDGE CENTERED ON A HIGH E OF BERMUDA...COUPLED WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING. FRESH E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH SEAS TO 6 FT...WHILE THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS S ALONG ABOUT 50W AND IS PRODUCING FRESH ENE TRADES ACROSS S PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...AND TO LESSER DEGREE ACROSS THE SE CARIB E OF 72W. BROAD INVERTED TROUGHING INDUCED ACROSS THE SW N ATLC INVOF 70W WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN BEFORE FLATTENING AND SHIFTING WWD SUN NIGHT AND MON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE SE CARIB...INCREASING TO SOLID 20-25 KT SUN AND SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT THERE. MEANWHILE...SUFFICIENT GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WEN PORTIONS FOR NOCTURNAL PULSING OF WINDS ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH MON.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

MID ATLC CUT OFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM HISPANIOLA AND PR NE INTO CENTRAL ATLC...WITH A SERIES OF LLVL TROUGHS STRUNG OUT ACROSS THIS AREA. ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ATLC WSW ACROSS BERMUDA TO S CENTRAL FL...WITH TRADES TO THE S OF THE RIDGE INTERRUPTED BY THESE INDUCED LLVL TROUGHS...AND YIELDING TRADES GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. OBS SUGGESTS SEAS 4-5 FT S OF THE RIDGE AND E OF BAHAMAS ATTM. RIDGE TO RETREAT TO THE NE OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE LLVL TROUGHS DRIFT WWD AND WEAKEN...AND WILL MAINTAIN MILD CONDITIONS CURRENTLY SEEN. LOW AND WEAK FRONTAL ZONE TO SHIFT ENE OFF HATTERAS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH BEHIND LOW SUN BUILDING S ACROSS PORTIONS W OF 70W TO PRODUCE MODERATE ELY TRADES S OF 27N SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE OFF MID ATLC COAST MON AND DRAG WEAK FRONT INTO SE U.S. COASTAL WATERS. MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AND WED WITH GFS SHOWING BOUNDARY MAKING IT TO GULF COASTS AND N FL WHILE ECMWF APPROACHES THIS AREA BUT LIFTS QUICKLY BACK TO N IN INCREASING SLY FLOW WED. ENS MEANS LOOK MORE SIMILAR TO ECMWF ATTM AND WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION BEYOND MON.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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