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AGXX40 KNHC 251801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
201 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE N GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF...WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE ENITIRE BASIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MON NIGHT...BECOME STATIONARY TUE...THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH WED AS A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH MODERATE NE WINDS DEVELOPING NW OF A LINE FROM BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. A THERMAL TROUGH MOVING WEST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN EACH NIGHT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN LOW WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE W ATLC WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH MON NIGHT. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WED. A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRES NEAR 40W WILL MOVE INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TUE THEN ACROSS THE WINDWARDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED. A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM THIS SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE NORTH OF THE LOW...AND EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KT WINDS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES WED...SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU...AND THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE WED BUT DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY AFTERWARDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AFTER IT PASSES 70W BY LATE THU.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT TRAILING AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE ACROSS NE WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS NORTH OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL AFFECT SE WATERS WED AND THU THEN SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FRI AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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