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AGXX40 KNHC 010621
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
221 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH WILL HELP TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO IS ANCHORED BY A WEAK HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN TACT OVER THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UNDER THIS SYNOPTIC SETTING...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 FEET. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE PULSING WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AHEAD OF A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING EACH EVENING...AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. THEREAFTER...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS THERMAL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT EACH EVENING FROM SAT THROUGH MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT EACH NIGHT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH LOCALLY MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 12 TO 14 FT WITHIN 210 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE TRADES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY FRI AND THROUGH SAT AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SECOND WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES FRI NIGHT BEFORE CROSSING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY. AS THIS SECOND WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN...A RESURGENCE OF TRADES WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS TO 30 KT BY SUN EVENING OVER THE GULF OF VENEZUELA AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER MINIMAL GALE EVENT FOR SUN NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...PULSING WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH SUPPORTS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS WATERS N OF 27N...AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT S OF 27N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA...EXPECT PULSING 20 TO 25 KT EASTERLY WINDS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT WITH THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THIS AREA.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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