Home


000
AGXX40 KNHC 220644
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
244 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH A STALLING COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS. LATEST ASCAT PASS DEPICTED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...EXCEPT REACHING NEAR 4 FT IN THE REGION OF STRONG WINDS OFF THE YUCATAN COAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN WATERS THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HELPING TO DEVELOP FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF THE COAST EACH NIGHT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND MODERATE TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-5 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...2-4 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 4-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. NOCTURNAL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 12 FT BY THE MORNING HOURS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY THEN CONFIDENCE STARTS TO DECREASE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS ROUGHLY ALONG 27N AS A COLD FRONT HAS JUST MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...MOVING E OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRESHENING WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE E OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO HELP DEVELOP A HIGH AMPLITUDE INVERTED TROUGH E OF THE AREA. A WAVE BREAKING EVENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER INERTIA OF THE WEST-EAST MOVEMENT OF THE STEERING WIND DISSIPATES...UPPER LEVEL LOWS DRIFT BACK WESTWARD. WITH THIS TENDENCY...THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LARGE AMPLITUDE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS EAST OF THE AREA WILL DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME MODEL SOLUTION DIFFERENCES AT THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH DECREASES CONFIDENCE. WHILE EACH MODEL DEPICTS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH WESTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HAVE CONTINUED A GFS-ECMWF BLEND FOR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Home