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AGXX40 KNHC 260850
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
350 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING SLOWLY SE ACROSS ERN GULF WHILE MORE QUICKLY ACROSS SE MEXICO AND YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOWED NLY GALES SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF SW GULF GENERALLY S OF 23N...WHILE NWLY WINDS NEAR THE COAST INVOF VERACRUZ LIKELY NEAR 40 KT. IN FACT...ISLA DE SACRAFICIO OBS TODAY SHOWED GALES FROM 17Z TO PRESENT WITH A FEW PERIODS OF 40G48 KT THIS AFTERNOON. A BIT DOWNSTREAM...PEMEX BUOY BMO REPORTING PEAK SEAS JUST UNDER 5M A COUPLE HOURS AGO...AND HAVE BUMPED UP PEAK SEAS IN THAT AREA TO MATCH. NNW GALES EXPECTED IN ELONGATED LINE BEHIND FRONT FROM OFFSHORE OF YUCATAN TO OFFSHORE ZONES W OF TAMPA AREA...TO SHIFT SE BEHIND FRONT AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 30 KT BY 12Z AS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUING ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AS JET DYNAMICS E OF SHARP MID-UPPER TROUGH INTERACT WITH VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE LOWER TROP IN PLACE AHEAD OF FRONT. MIA CURRENTLY IN THE SOUP AND REPORTING 26/25 C. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN RECENT GUIDANCE AND THUS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. GALES ENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN BY 12Z THIS MORNING WITH FRONT CONTINUING SE TROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FL 12-18Z WITH NLY FLOW 20-25 KT BUILDING BEHIND IT ACROSS E AND SE PORTIONS...AND SEAS SUBSIDING VERY SLOWLY. BENIGN SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO N PORTIONS TONIGHT AND INDUCE REINFORCING PRES GRADIENT TO FRESHEN WINDS ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND INTO E BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AND FRI...WHILE NLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT SWEEP BEHIND FRONT ACROSS N PORTIONS. 1034 MB HIGH ACROSS TN VALLEY BEHIND THIS SECONDARY FRONT TO SHIFT SLOWLY E-SE ACROSS SE U.S. FRI AND SAT AND GRADUALLY VEER FLOW AS BROAD RIDGE BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS BASIN...AND RETURN FLOW 15-20 DEVELOPS ACROSS TEXAS WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. RIDGE TO INDUCE FRESH ENE TRADES THROUGH STRAITS AND SE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND REDEVELOP SEAS THERE.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS.

LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN E OF 79W...SOUTH OF RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS...WITH NOCTURNAL MAX DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND LIKELY BUILDING TO 11 FT OFF COLOMBIA. WEAKENING S TO SE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT...NOW REACHING MMUN.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE AND REACH FROM W CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 80W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS BY 00Z TONIGHT...THEN HANG UP ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS NW CARIB AND CUBA...REACHING E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY 00Z SAT BEFORE STALLING AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NLY WINDS AROUND 25 KT WILL SPILL INTO NW CARIB BEHIND FRONT TODAY...WITH FEW ISOLATED SPOTS TO 30 KT MAINLY W PORTIONS WHERE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE PREVAILS. HOWEVER...SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING WILL INCREASE RES GRADIENT TONIGHT THROUGH THU W PORTIONS...WITH NNE WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT...AND GFS PARALLEL RUN SHOWING SMALL SPOTS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS THU EVENING AND NIGHT...AND WINDS 30 KT BEHIND FRONT IN LEE OF E CENTRAL CUBA. HAVE HAND EDITING WINDS TO NUDGE IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT NO GALES IN HONDURAS ATTM. WINDS AND SEAS TO THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS W HALF OF BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GULF AND W ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS E AND FLOW ON S SIDE VEERS TO NE THEN ENE BY MON. HIGHER RES GFS PARALLEL SUGGESTING NOCTURNAL MAX OFF COLOMBIA REACHING GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PASSES DIRECTLY N OF AREA. MODELS CONTINUE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...BUT WITH SAME BIASES OF RECENT DAYS WITH EUROPEAN MODELS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SE OF GFS FRONTAL POSITION.

MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF INDUCED LLVL INVERTED TROUGHS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC TO THE E HAVE CREATED A STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING SW TO THE NE CARIB AND ARE AGAIN PUMPING UP SEAS MOVING INTO THE AREA...WITH BUOY 41044 NOW AT 12 FT. THESE TWO TROUGHS WILL SHIFT W AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS THE W ATLC NEXT 48-72 HOURS...WITH RIDGE SHIFTING E AND GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU.


...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

ATLC RIDGING DOMINATING THE WRN BASIN THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT E TODAY THROUGH FRI AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS FAR NW WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH MODELS STILL INDICATING 35-50 KT LLVL SLY JET AHEAD OF FRONT THIS MORNING...AND SLY GALES EXPECTED TO WORK DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN A NARROW BAND E OF FRONT 09-18Z BEFORE SHIFTING N OF AREA. SFC LOW LONG FRONT ALONG SC COAST WILL MOVE NNE ALONG FRONT TODAY...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE NW GALES BEHIND FRONT...AND NW WINDS 25-30 KT EXPECTED BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NW PORTIONS EARLY TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SOLID 25 KT INTO THE AFTERNOON. FRONT TO RESUME MOVING SE THIS MORNING...REACHING 31N73W TO W CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 80W BY 00Z TONIGHT...AND 27N65W TO E CUBA BY 00Z SAT. WINDS BEHIND FRONT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT EXCEPT ACROSS STRAITS OF FL...BEFORE SECONDARY BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS NW PORTIONS EARLY THU AND INCREASES GRADIENT AGAIN FOR SECOND PULSE OF BUILDING NW-N WAVE ENERGY. RIDGE TO SHIFT E OFF OF E COAST OVER WEEKEND WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING NE SAT AND ENE TO E SUN...WHEN TRADES S OF 25-26N WILL FRESHEN TO 20-25 KT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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