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AGXX40 KNHC 300509
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
109 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A thermal trough will develop late each afternoon over the Yucatan Peninsula, and shift w across the southwestern gulf waters, generally to s of 24N between 90W and 93W, during the overnight and early daylight hours, and gradually lose identity along about 94W by late each morning. Expect a ne-e-se 15-20 kt wind shift along the trough axis, except 20 to 25 kt along the n coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, and again on Wed evening, with guidance hinting that these brief strong conditions will develop again on Fri evening. Expect seas to build briefly to 6 ft just w of the strong winds.

A n to s orientated surface trough over the w waters will move w and inland Tx by this evening. A surface high will develop over the ne gulf during the afternoons along an e to w ridge that will extend across the northern gulf waters this week. Moderate southerly return flow forecast over the gulf waters w of 88W, increasing to fresh breeze each evening. Expect 3 to 5 ft seas throughout the period. However, guidance is suggesting the pressure gradient will tighten on Fri night. with a swath of strong se winds along 23N between 90W and 95W.

Light and variable winds forecast near the ridge axis and will surround the high center, with light to moderate anticyclonic flow forecast e of 88W through Fri night, except becoming a fresh breeze across the Fl Straights during the evenings. Convection will be denoted in weather grids across waters w of 90W today.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

Atlc high pressure will support fresh e trades, with 5-8 ft seas, across the central Caribbean with locally strong nocturnal trades within about 180 nm of the nw coast of Colombia, and across the Gulf of Venezuela. The pressure gradient will tighten this evening, with the strong e winds expanding n from the Colombian coast to along 16N between about 70W and 80W on Wed with the resultant e swell in the form of 8 ft seas reaching near 14N82W on Thu, will max seas of 11 ft occurring near 13N75W.

Strong nocturnal e to se trades forecast across the Gulf of Honduras through Fri night. Tropical waves over the central and e Caribbean will continue westward accompanied by a moderate to fresh ne-e-se wind shift and only a slight enhancement of convection mainly over the n-central Caribbean.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.

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