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000
AGXX40 KNHC 220758
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
258 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A strong cold front has entered the Gulf extending from near the
Texas/Louisiana border to near Brownsville, Texas. Winds behind
the front are rapidly increasing with fresh to near gale force
northwest winds already reported, while southerly flow ahead of
the front is increasing to fresh to strong. A recent
scatterometer pass measured a reverse Tehuantepec gap wind event
with southerly 20-30 kt winds sampled to the north of the
Chivela Pass.

The front will rapidly move east extending from southeast
Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico later this morning as winds
increase to 30-40 kt north of 24N west of the front, with
southerly 30-35 kt winds setting up north of 26N east of the
front. The front will exit the basin Monday morning with Gale
force winds diminishing over the eastern Gulf by Monday
afternoon. Very large seas will develop across the basin, with
significant wave heights topping out around 16-20 ft today and
tonight, spreading to the eastern Gulf late tonight into early
Monday.

Conditions will greatly improve Monday and Monday night from
west to east as high pressure builds in the wake of the front.
The high will move from northern Mexico this evening to the Bay
of Campeche Monday evening, to near the Straits of Florida
Tuesday evening before exiting east of the area by mid-week as
the next cold front approaches the basin from the northwest.

The next cold front will enter the northwest Gulf by Wednesday
morning, reaching from the Florida Big Bend to the southwest Gulf
by Thursday morning, pushing southeast of the basin by Friday
morning. A surge of fresh to strong southerly winds is likely
ahead of the front west of 94W Tuesday and Tuesday night, with
fresh to strong northwest flow possible behind the front across
the western and central Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A fairly weak pressure pattern is in place across the basin,
except in the northwest Caribbean where southerly return flow is
increasing to fresh to strong with broad troughing present ahead
of a strong cold front which is entering the northwest Gulf of
Mexico. Fresh northwest flow is noted near the northwest coast of
Colombia, with mainly moderate trades present elsewhere across
the basin. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range in the northwest Caribbean,
4-6 ft near the northwest coast of Colombia, and 2-4 ft elsewhere
in the Caribbean.

The cold front will slip southeast of the Yucatan Channel this
evening with fresh to strong northwest winds arriving behind it,
and building seas of 8-11 ft pushing through the Yucatan Channel.
The front will then reach from eastern Cuba to northeast
Nicaragua Monday evening with fresh to strong southwest flow
likely ahead of the front through the Windward Passage tonight,
then from the Dominican Republic to southeast of Jamaica to the
Panama/Costa Rica border Tuesday evening, then stalling from near
the Virgin Islands to 16N77W to western Panama Wednesday morning
where it will gradually dissipate through Thursday.

The next cold front will approach the northwest Caribbean by the
end of the week.

Over the tropical north Atlantic waters, expect mainly gentle to
moderate trade winds and seas of 4-7 ft to continue through the
forecast period. The only change will be the decaying southerly
portion of the cold front which will move by north of 15N
Thursday causing winds to briefly shift near the boundary.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A 1016 mb high pressure area northeast of the Bahamas near 25N68W
will weaken while shifting east ahead of a fast moving, strong
cold front which has entered the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Light
to moderate anticyclonic winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted s of
27N east of the Bahamas, with moderate to fresh southerly return
flow elsewhere, except increasing to fresh to strong offshore of
northern Florida. Seas are 4-7 ft where the return flow is
present, except 2 ft or less inside the protected Bahama waters.

Southerly winds will continue to increase ahead of the cold
front, reaching gale force offshore of northern Florida this
evening. The front will move off the southeast coast of the
United States tonight, with strong to gale force winds, up to 40
kt, spreading eastward both ahead of and behind the front. Seas
will build to 15-20 ft across a large portion of the forecast
waters through the early part of the week.

The front will finally weaken and move east of 65W through mid
week, with high pressure moving in from the southern Gulf of
Mexico to south Florida Wednesday, then to east of the Bahamas by
Thursday. Conditions will greatly improve from west to east as
the high builds in the wake of the front.

The next cold front will move off the southeast coast of the
United States late Wednesday night into early Thursday, moving
across the northwest portion of the basin through the end of the
week.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK...
Gale Warning today into tonight.
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE
SANCTUARY...
Gale Warning today into tonight.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
Gale Warning today into Mon.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
Gale Warning today.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W...
Gale Warning today into tonight.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
Gale Warning tonight.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
Gale Warning tonight into Mon night.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
Gale Warning Mon night.
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK...
Gale Warning tonight into Mon.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
Gale Warning Mon into Mon night.
.AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
Gale Warning Mon night.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.

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