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AGXX40 KNHC 010735
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FT BASED ON AN ALTIMETER PASS AND BUOYS OBSERVATIONS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON SUN. THEN...A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND MODEST SEAS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE NE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF MON AND TUE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF MATTHEW'S LARGE CIRCULATION. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN MATTHEW AND HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF THE WINDS TO 15 KT ACROSS THE SE GULF...WITH PROBABLY HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. HURRICANE MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SW N ATLC BASIN TO THE E OF THE AREA ON WED...HOWEVER...WINDS AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN GULF MAY INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND BUILDING SEAS OF 6-7 FT ACROSS FORECAST ZONES GMZ015 AND GMZ021 BY LATE WED.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON MAJOR HURRICANE MATTHEW THAT IS NOW A CATEGORY 5 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE...WITH MAX SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 KT AND GUSTS TO 170 KT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 941 MB. THIS IS THE FIRST CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE HURRICANE FELIX IN 2007. MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGH SUNDAY AND IS FORECAST TO BE A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT MOVES NEAR JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CUBA. CURRENTLY...THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES THAT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF MATTHEW EXTEND WITHIN ABOUT 270 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE THE SAME ASCAT PASS SHOWS NE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. AN ALTIMETER PASS W OF MATTHEW PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 12 FT SEAS EXTENDING WITHIN ABOUT 330 NM NW AND 270 NM SW QUADRANTS OF MATTHEW. SEAS OF 8-12 FT IN MIXED SWELL ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE NOTED BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MATTHEW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA...CROSSING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY... AND APPROACHING JAMAICA LATE SUNDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY MATTHEW ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO, HISPANIOLA, JAMAICA, ARUBA, BONAIRE, CURACAO, VENEZUELA, AND COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF MATTHEW...GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS ARE SEEN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PARTICULARLY E OF 70W. MAINLY FRESH NE WINDS ARE SEEN IN THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

CURRENTLY...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE SW N ATLANTIC. MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA S OF 27N WITH SEAS NEAR 8 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N. AS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVES NORTHWARD...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...BUT FIRST ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N W OF 70W TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND REGIONAL WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT. MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN WATERS N OF CUBA NEAR 19.0N 76.3W BY MON EVENING... MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS THEREAFTER. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF MATTHEW AS THE HURRICANE MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC.


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ013...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING SUN NIGHT.
.AMZ015...CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... TROPICAL STORM WARNING SUN NIGHT.
.AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HURRICANE WARNING SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY.
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO SUN. TROPICAL STORM WARNING SUN NIGHT.
.AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY. TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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