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AGXX40 KNHC 270545
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR SE WATERS. A SECOND FRONT IS JUST MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NW WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE SW WATERS WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE GULF WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE SW WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SE WATERS WILL STALL OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. THE FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PREVAIL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT WINDS INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...FRESH TRADES PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...6-7 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 7-9 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE PULSING OF WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH NIGHT. NE SWELLS WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH TUE WHILE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA INDICATE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NE AND SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE OVER THE NE WATERS...AND 5-7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN TO A SHEARLINE THROUGH SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS SAT THROUGH TUE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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