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AGXX40 KNHC 270730
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGING N OF THE AREA SUPPORTS MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2-4 FT ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SE GULF SUN AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH TUE. THE ONLY REMAINING OUTLIER TO THIS SCENARIO AMONG THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS IS THE UK. THE EC AND GFS AGREE IN MOST RESPECTS AND WERE USED AS BASIS FOR FORECAST GRIDS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOWER PRESSURE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IS KEEPING AN ATYPICAL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH LATE SUN. RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC MON AND TUE WHICH WILL BRING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELL GENERATED BY GASTON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 18N E OF 57W TODAY.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A GLOBAL HAWK RECON MISSION OVERNIGHT SHOW A 1010 MB CLOSED LOW CENTER NEAR 31N66W. THE CENTER IS EXPOSED BUT SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 57W AND 67W THROUGH MON AS THE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS W-NW TOWARD GA AND S CAROLINA. FARTHER SOUTH...A WEAK TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE N COAST OF CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS WAVE DISTURBANCE IS ENHANCING SE WINDS AND SEAS IN ITS NE QUADRANT INCLUDING ATLC WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH SUN...AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. LARGE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH TS GASTON WILL PERSIST IN FORECAST WATERS BETWEEN 55-60W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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