Home


000
AGXX40 KNHC 200545
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH TUE...THEN GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

A TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE SW GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE SW GULF AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS TUE. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS EARLY WED WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM EARLY THIS WEEK. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ENE. ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS SCENARIO AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST HAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND RESULTING WINDS. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES AND LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO THE ENE...BUT USE A BLEND OF THE GFS SOLUTION WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WINDS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 5-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE SW GULF. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AFTER TUESDAY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE GULF WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ON TUE...THEN MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY MIDWEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT NW OF THE FRONT AND 4-5 FT E OF THE FRONT AND OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE W OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT N OF 30N WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MON WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY WED. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THU THEN STALL FROM NEAR 27N65W TO SOUTH FLORIDA FRI.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Home