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AGXX40 KNHC 240726
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
326 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A thermal trough will develop each evening over the NW Yucatan Peninsula, move W-NW across the SW Gulf during the overnight hours and dissipate over the SW Gulf waters by late each morning. Expect the trough to be accompanied by a surge of moderate to locally fresh winds that shift from NE to SE along with brief seas to 4 ft through early Tuesday. Expect a tighter pressure gradient on Tuesday evening with a fresh to locally strong wind shift along the trough axis and seas possibly to 5 ft through early Wednesday. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will continue to support gentle to locally moderate anticyclonic flow, and 1 to 3 ft seas, through early Thursday. The first cold front of the autumn season is depicted by model guidance to move across the northern and western Gulf waters on Thursday. Currently, it appears that this front will be rather weak as it is expected to be followed by mainly moderate NE winds and seas of 1-3 ft, except for higher seas of 3-5 ft over the far western Gulf waters.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

The present analyzed pressure gradient continues to be rather light W of about 70W, and a little tighter E of 70W. This supports mainly light and variable winds W of 70W, and moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds E of 70W as noted in current buoy observations, and in the Ascat data from late last night. Seas are rather low W of 70W where 1-3 ft seas are occurring, and 4-6 ft seas E of 70W. Similar seas are over the tropical N Atlantic zones. Little changes are expected with the current observed through much of Monday. The pressure gradient will then tighten across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic waters later on Monday and through Wednesday morning as central Atlantic high pressure builds southwestward towards the tropical N Atlantic waters and NE Caribbean Sea in the wake of Hurricane Maria exiting the forecast waters of the SW N Atlantic.

Trades are forecast to increase to the 20-25 kt range along with seas building seas to 8 ft, over some sections of the S central Caribbean near the Colombia and Venezuela basins. These increasing trades will spread some westward through late Wednesday morning before diminishing to mainly moderate to locally fresh trades. The seas to 8 ft will subside to less than 8 ft late Wednesday. NE swell originating from the far NE Atlantic is expected to propagate through the waters E of the tropical N Atlantic zones through Tuesday, and through portions of the eastern sections of tropical N Atlantic zones late Tuesday night before decaying late Wednesday allowing for seas to lower to less than 8 ft.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Hurricane Maria is located about 255 nm E of Great Abaco Island, Bahamas at 24/0900 UTC, with maximum sustained winds 100 kt with gusts to 125 kt, and a minimum central pressure of 942 mb. Maria is moving N at 8 kt. This general motion is expected to continue through Monday night. The latest NHC forecast advisory has Maria exiting the basin by late Monday afternoon. An Ascat pass from 0240Z last night highlighted winds of 20-33 kt extending within 360 nm of the center of Maria over the NW quadrant. Combined seas to near 12 ft were noted along the outer periphery of these winds. Buoy 41046 located at 24N68W is currently reporting SE winds of 20 kt along with seas of 8-11 ft in a NW swell. Maria continues to generate mixed swell over just about the entire basin, with a primarily southerly component to the swell over the far northern waters. Seas of 8 ft are just along the entrances to the Bahamas passages.

Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast today. Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Otherwise, in the wake of Maria a surface trough will extend from the N-central forecast waters SW to near the Central Bahamas through Wednesday night then become diffuse Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible with the trough.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Hurricane Warning early today into Mon.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Tropical Storm Warning early today into Mon.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... Hurricane Warning early today. Tropical Storm Warning today.
.AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Tropical Storm Warning early today.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.

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