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AGXX40 KNHC 040816
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
416 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

LATE SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS OF GULF THIS MORNING...WHILE MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS NE PORTIONS...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE TO 27N91W TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 95.5W. STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTS FRONT MAY HAVE STALLED OFFSHORE OF LOUISIANA COASTS AS A LLVL VORT CAN BE SEEN MOVING NE ALONG BOUNDARY NEAR 91W. OIL PLATFORMS REPORTING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BEHIND FRONT...WHILE A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WELL ADVERTISED MY MODELS IS AHEAD OF FRONT...WHERE OBS STILL SHOW NW WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. THERMAL TROUGH OVER YUCATAN IS NOT SHIFTING NW OVER WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY DRIFT WNW AND DISSIPATE NEXT 12 HRS. S TO SW WINDS 10-15 KT LOOK TO PREVAIL ACROSS SE PORTIONS AHEAD OF FRONT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. NLY WINDS ALONG MEXICAN COAST BEHIND FRONT PEAKED AROUND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT PER OBS FROM VERACRUZ HARBOR AND ISLA DE SACRIFICIO...AIDED BY DIURNAL MAX THERMAL GRADIENT...WHERE SEAS LIKELY ROSE TO 5-7 FT. WINDS HAVE SINCE DROPPED OFF AT VERACRUZ TO AROUND 15 KT.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING FRONT SE ACROSS BASIN NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE PORTIONS. WINDS ALONG MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ WILL PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE NLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT WILL BUILD IN ACROSS NE AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS TO NEAR 25 KT...WHILE SEAS BUILD 5-7 FT...SHIFTING EWD ACROSS WATERS E OF 85W TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL COMBINE WITH JET ENERGY IN BASE OF DIGGING TROUGH TO IGNITE STRONG TSTMS SE WATERS AND STRAITS THAT WILL SHIFT NE INTO S FL. FRONT O MOVE ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL TONIGHT BY AROUND 06Z WITH MODEST RIDGE THEN PREVAILING NEXT FEW DAYS AND ANCHORED ON HIGH ACROSS NW WATERS. SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING DEEP LAYERED UPPER LOW WILL SINK S ACROSS NE AND E PORTIONS THU EVENING THROUGH SAT. HIGH ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WILL SHIFT E OVER WEEKEND ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO GRADUALLY SET UP WRN WATERS SAT THROUGH SUN.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

A WEAKENING RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW FROM A HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING MODERATE E TO SE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS SW CARIB CONNECTING TO EPAC MONSOONAL CIRCULATION KEEPING SRN CARIB WIND MAX CENTERED E OF 74W. SELY FLOW ACROSS NW CARIB OPENING UP INTO GULF IN ADVANCE OF A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT...WHILE FRESH E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS AND OUTER WATERS TO THE E. LONG ESE FETCH ACROSS SE CARIB INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS MAINTAINING AREA OF 5-6 FT SEAS THERE PER RECENT OBS FROM 42058. OTHERWISE...SEAS 5 FT OR LESS BASIN WIDE.

THE ATLC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH SAT...ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NRN GULF OF HONDURAS THU EVENING. FRONT TO SLOW FORWARD PROGRESS ACROSS ERN CUBA FRI AS STRONG UPPER LOW DIGS SSE ALONG ERN SEABOARD AND INTO NE FLORIDA...AND WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD NLY PUSH OF FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND EVENTUALLY REACH COSTA RICA SAT AFTERNOON-EVENING...MORE TYPICAL OF MID WINTER FROPA. AS THIS OCCUR...A N TO S INDUCED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM NE COLOMBIA INTO CENTRAL CARIB...WITH NLY FLOW TO THE W AND SE FLOW ACROSS BASIN TO THE E ON SAT...BEFORE RIDGING BUILDING FROM GULFMEX INTO SW N ATLC FLATTENS LLVL FLOW PATTERN SUN-MON. HIGHLY ANOMALOUS SCENARIO FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON...BUT WITH GENERALLY ONLY 20 KT OF NW0N WIND FORECAST BEHIND FRONT...NLY WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY ONLY TO REACH 6 FT W OF FRONT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PAST BERMUDA TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SLY FLOW ACROSS NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA HAS ALREADY BEGIN TO VEER SSW OVERNIGHT...AND NOW IS SW AND OFFSHORE MOST OF THE COAST. VERY ENERGETIC UPPER TROUGH TO DIG INTO FLORIDA TODAY AND COMBINE WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE VERY ACTIVE AND POTENTIALLY STRONG CNVTN TODAY AND TONIGHT AND SHIFT E AND NE AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH THU...WITH LINES OF SQUALLS AND TRW+ TO BE EXPECTED E OF FRONT AS IT SHIFTS E OF BAHAMAS THU. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST PRE FRONTAL TROUGHING AND/OR THESE LINES OF CNVTN AHEAD OF FRONT...MAKING PRECISE FRONTAL POSITIONS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. TOO...DIGGING UPPER LOW INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA THU THROUGH FRI WILL CAUSE FRONT TO STALL OR SLOW AND BECOME MORE N TO S ALIGNED ACROSS NRN WATERS WHILE SRN PORTIONS CONTINUES SE. FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THU EVENING AND INTO FAR SE BAHAMAS TO ERN CUBA BY FRI EVENING...WITH SECONDARY FRONTAL TROUGH OR FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS NW PORTIONS WITH UPPER LOW THU-FRI. MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN STRONG SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND PRE FRONTAL TROUGHS EARLY THU THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR MESO LOW OR TWO TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT. 25-30 KT WINDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED AREAS OF GALES ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. I HAVE NOT ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR THIS AS OF YET AS GALE SFC WINDS IN MODELS LIKELY INFLUENCED BY STRONG CNVTN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. W-NW WINDS AROUND 20 KT WILL BUILD ACROSS NW PORTIONS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT BEHIND SECONDARY BOUNDARY. FRONT TO EVENTUALLY REACH ERN HISPANIOLA SUN MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THROUGH MON-TUE AS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT INTO NW ATLC.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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