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AGXX40 KNHC 170710
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
310 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE OBS AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MODERATE EARLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF FRESH WINDS IN NE PORTION NEAR BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO NORTHERN YUCATAN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE NE GULF FRI. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY FRI AT 1200 UTC AND ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS...FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SAT AT 1200 UTC. THE FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRES N OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN AS A WEAK LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE SW ATLC WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT. GENTLE E-SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT REACHING FROM 31N78W TO 29N81W BY FRI MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LESSENS AFTERWARD. THE LOW PRES FORECAST TO DEVELOP FRI IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA SAT MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SE GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SUN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 31N71W TO SE FLORIDA LATE SUN.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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