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AGXX40 KNHC 270700
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED LATEST TAFB-NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1019 MB IS LOCATED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N85W AS CAPTURED BY A RECENT ASCAT-B PASS. MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE BASIN BASED ON SCATTEROMETER PASSES EXCEPT NEAR THE HIGH ITSELF...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST. SEAS ARE 2 FT OR LESS NEAR THE HIGH CENTER...2-4 FT IN THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF 90W...AND 4-7 FT IN THE WESTERN GULF WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED.

A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT NIGHT MAINTAINING THE PRIMARILY MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE DISRUPTED BY TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW N ATLC AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NW. NEW HIGH PRES WILL FORM IN THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR THE SE COAST OF LOUISIANA SUN AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE DIURNAL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING SHIFTING OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED LATEST TAFB-NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS FAR AS TROPICAL WAVES ARE CONCERNED...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 15N. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 49W WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES AND NORTHERN S AMERICA SUN THROUGH MON...THEN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE.

A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING LOCATED IN THE SW N ATLC CONTINUES TO DISRUPT CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING. LOW PRES TYPICALLY FOUND OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL ALSO BE WEAKER THAN NORMAL FURTHER HELPING TO KEEP A WEAK PATTERN. AS A RESULT...MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXCEPT LIGHT TO GENTLE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...EXCEPT 4-7 FT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE...AND 1-3 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE WEAKEST WINDS WILL BE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED LATEST TAFB-NWPS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 27N72W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NNE-SSW THROUGH THE LOW. RECENT WINDSAT...ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES ALL WENT OVER THE LOW AND INDICATED THAT IT WAS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE S THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT ON THE N-NE SIDE OF THE LOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ANTICIPATED ON THIS SIDE OF LOW DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE N AND NE. MODEL GUIDANCE MAYBE SLIGHTLY UNDER FORECASTING WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...AND A GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMED TO INITIALIZE THE BEST...AND A TINY AREA OF 34 KT WINDS IS DEPICTED FOR 1-2 HOURS. THIS LOW ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.

A BUOY LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE LOW CENTER ALSO HAS BEEN REPORTING SEAS UP TO 11 FT WHICH IS 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN ANY AVAILABLE WAVE GUIDANCE. WAVE GRIDS WERE BUMPED UP ACCORDINGLY FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH THE TAFB-NWPS 03Z RUN USED THEREAFTER. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE W-NW AND THEN NW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL SHIFT N OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON.

CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WATERS E OF 70W MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG IT. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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