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AGXX40 KNHC 260730
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

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


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN THE ATLC TO THE NE OF THE BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. AS A RESULT...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK OTHER THAN WINDS PULSATING UP TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA AND OFFSHORE OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MAINLY MODERATE TRADES AND COMBINED SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN MIXED N AND E SWELL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK... WITH A BRIEF SURGE TO 20 KT AND RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL PASS TUE INTO TUE EVENING. A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE AND STRONGER SURGE ARE THEN EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS TO DROP INTO THE NW PORTION OFF OF THE SE GEORGIA COAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THE CHANCE FOR A WEAK LOW TO FORM ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT BY LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BECOME REINFORCED MON INTO MON NIGHT HELPING TO PUSH THE REMNANT FRONT AND WEAK LOW BACK TO THE W-NW WHILE DISSIPATING. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY MANAGE TO SNEAK INTO THE SE UNITED STATES COASTAL WATERS ON THU.

MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TO THE S OF 22N. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3-4 FT EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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