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AGXX40 KNHC 260801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
401 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERSISTENT RIDGE EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF TEXAS WILL MAKE MINOR FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID WEEK AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH WED. THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. LOCALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WILL PULSE OFF THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOST EVENINGS THROUGH MID WEEK...ENHANCED SLIGHTLY BY THE PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF MON AND TUE. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOTICED IN SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTPUT AMONG MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE THIS MORNING...IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW CENTERED BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN PANAMA. STRONG WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS ALLOWING FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN. STRONG AND STUBBORN HIGH PRES N OF THE BASIN WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A LOCALIZED EFFECT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO CAPTURE THESE WINDS THE BEST AND REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE IN THIS AREA.

THE TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN PANAMA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT EACH NIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING 25 KT LATE TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...ACCOPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY SUN...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON INTO TUE...AND ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FORECAST POSITIONS OF THE TROPICAL WAVES WERE BASED ON BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE MODELS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE ORIENTED EAST TO WEST ALONG ROUGHLY 27N WILL MEANDER A LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD TO 26N INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE WATERS N OF 28N OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE MON. WINDS N OF 28N JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT BRIEFLY LATE MON INTO TUE. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT REMAINS OVER THE GULF STREAM. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW OFF THE N COAST OF HAITI.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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