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AGXX40 KNHC 301733
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1233 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED CONFIDENCE.

THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF A COLD FRONT...PRECEDED BY SHOWERS... EXTENDING FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE SE TX COAST WILL LOSE IDENTITY ACROSS THE FL STRAITS TONIGHT WHILE THE WESTERN SEGMENT STALLS BRIEFLY ALONG 25N...THEN LIFTS NE AS A WARM FRONT BEGINNING EARLY SAT. THE WARM FRONT FRONT MAY INDUCE A FEW TSTMS AS IT PASSES OVER THE FL PANHANDLE ON SUN. EXPECT NE-E 15-20 KT FLOW N OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...CLOCKING TO THE E-SE AT 15-20 KT N OF THE WARM FRONT ON SAT INTO SUN...AND BECOMING SLY 15-20 KT ACROSS MOST WATERS ON SUN AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVER THE NW GULF WATERS ON SUN NIGHT AND RACES SE THROUGH THE FL STRAITS ON MON EVENING WHILE LEAVING THE FAMILIAR NE-SE ORIENTATED FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF WATERS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS REMNANT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT N ON TUE NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT NEAR 25N95W BY SUNRISE WED. EXPECT N-NE 20-25 KT FLOW BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT... EXCEPT N 25-30 KT WINDS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 23N97W LATE MON INTO MON EVENING. MAY SEE E-SE 20-25 KT ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL WATERS ON TUE NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAKENING BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FROM HISPANIOLA TO OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS DENOTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NE 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 20-25 KT/SEAS 6-9 FT MAINLY IN WINDWARD PASSAGE AND BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMANS. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CLOCKING TO THE E-SE 10-15 KT ON SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON MON EVENING...WITH N-NE 10-15 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH 8-12 FT SEAS EXPECTED WITHIN 240 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT INCREASING THE NE FLOW TO 30-35 KT/SEAS 10-13 FT WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT THIS NOCTURNAL MINIMAL GALE PATTERN TO REPEAT EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS CARIBBEAN W OF 67W AND EASTERLY 10-15 KT FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT SUPPORTING 15-20 KT CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A BROAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS NE OF HISPANIOLA ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS WHICH ARE DENOTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. AN W-E SURFACE RIDGE FROM ACROSS FL EXTENDING ALONG 27N WILL SHIFT SE TONIGHT AND SAT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WILL RACE E TO A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...FROM 31N58W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SAT EVENING...AND THEN LOSES IDENTITY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARDS ON SUN. SOUTHWESTERLY 30-35 KT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS FORECAST N OF 30N E OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON... WITH SW-W-NW 20-30 KT WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE N OF 27N WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT AND 600 NM...GRADUALLY EXPENDING OUT TO 900 NM LATER...TO THE W OF THE FRONT. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N69W ON SUN EVENING WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO PORT CANAVERAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT SUN NIGHT AND FURTHER INCREASE TO A 30-35 KT MINIMAL GALE N OF 30N NEAR 77W EARLY MON AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE A SW-W-NW 20-30 KT WIND SHIFT EXPECTED N OF 28N ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES A LINE FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS EARLY TUE.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...


.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE WARNING SAT NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT...MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT INTO WED.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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