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AGXX40 KNHC 011811
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
211 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ABOUT 260 NM E-SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MOVING W-NW AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS SE MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AND THE LOW PRES COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TUE AS IT MOVES W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH TUE BEFORE IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO TUE NIGHT OR WED. MARINE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS DEVELOPING OVER THE W CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND RIDGING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAS A LOW PRES WITH WINDS OF 25-30 KT MOVING ACROSS ZONES AMZ025 FIRST THEN ACROSS AMZ023 DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT TO THE NE OF THE LOW CENTER. INTERESTS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE SINCE WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD SOON BE REQUIRED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE 1512 ASCAT PASS SHOWED SE WINDS OF 25-30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF MANLY S OF 24N. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY THU.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-25 KT SE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY S OF 21N W OF 85W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THESE WINDS ARE BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE NE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND THE LOW PRES SHIFT FARTHER WEST. LOCAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FRESH EASTERLY WINDS DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO INDICATED 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS TO 9 FT PER AN ALTIMETER PASS. THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 68W/69W. THIS RATHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE TUE...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT... MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE WED AND OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. WINDS TO 25 KT ARE STILL LIKELY OFF COLOMBIA...BUT 15 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS AND OFF HISPANIOLA.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 24N71W CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY S OF 27N...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. A WEAK TROUGH...LIKELY A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS LOW...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT...AND THE NW BAHAMAS WED BEFORE MOVING ACROSS S FLORIDA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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