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AGXX40 KNHC 121747
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1247 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW winds follow a cold front moving into the northern Gulf this morning, with seas building to 7 ft so far off the western Florida Panhandle. The front will sweep across the southeast Gulf by early Wed, followed by moderate to fresh NW winds over the eastern Gulf, and gentle moderate northerly winds elsewhere. Winds and seas diminish through the Gulf Wed as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Another cold front will enter the northern Gulf Thu, and reach from the Florida Big Bend area in the NE Gulf to near Tampico Mexico by early Fri, before moving through entire Gulf late Fri into Sat. The main forecast issue is the possibility of strong northerly winds following the front by early Fri, as suggested by some guidance. Given the cold air advection and more northerly push of this front, this seems likely. In fact, SREF probabilities are trending upward with regard to gale force winds off Tampico. For now, strong winds will be introduced into for the western Gulf for late in the week. High pressure builds in the wake of the front Sat and Sun, with fresh or even strong SE return flow possible over the NW Gulf by late Sat.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

A broad stationary front will gradually dissipate from eastern Cuba to western Panama through the middle of the week. A scatterometer pass from earlier this morning confirmed strong northerly winds west of the front and south of 18N, mainly along the coast of Nicaragua. Seas were 8 to 9 ft this morning in open waters in this plume of strong winds. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through Thu as the gradient weakens. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow another front entering the northwest Caribbean Wed. The front will stall from central Cuba to central Honduras Thu and dissipate Thu night. High pressure building behind the front will allow strong nocturnal trades to resume along the coast of Colombia starting Thu night, with at least near gale force winds possible Sat night and Sun night.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A stationary front from 28N65W to eastern Cuba will gradually dissipate through late Wed. A second front entering into the Gulf of Mexico will move rapidly off the NE Florida coast later today, reach from near Bermuda to NW Cuba early Wed, from 26N65W to central Cuba Thu, before stalling and dissipating along roughly 22N Fri. There is some uncertainty about gale force winds north of 27N Fri night into Sat as latest guidance has backed of this scenario. Current forecast still leaves the possibility of gale force winds, but this may have to be adjusted in subsequent issuances if trends persist.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night into Sat.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.

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